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re: How to Destroy the ACC
Posted on 8/3/23 at 1:38 pm to DawginSC
Posted on 8/3/23 at 1:38 pm to DawginSC
>They are good teams, but not meaningful enough to move the needle.
They might be the difference between a 24 team BIG negotiating with a 16 team SEC for Playoff slots/arrangements, as opposed to a 20 team BIG versus a 20 team SEC. If you're a TV network, would you rather pair with a 24 team, coast to coast league or a 16 team league that's confined to one corner of the country?
> potentially pay the same for the fill in ACC games with worse teams because 2025 prices are higher than the rates they locked in in 2016.
The ACC won't exist in this scenario. Even with the cheap ACC contract, ESPN may come out ahead if it can move four teams over to the SEC, drop the ACC deadweight, drop costs associated with the ACCN, and also block the BIG out of VA and NC and the South altogether.
They might be the difference between a 24 team BIG negotiating with a 16 team SEC for Playoff slots/arrangements, as opposed to a 20 team BIG versus a 20 team SEC. If you're a TV network, would you rather pair with a 24 team, coast to coast league or a 16 team league that's confined to one corner of the country?
> potentially pay the same for the fill in ACC games with worse teams because 2025 prices are higher than the rates they locked in in 2016.
The ACC won't exist in this scenario. Even with the cheap ACC contract, ESPN may come out ahead if it can move four teams over to the SEC, drop the ACC deadweight, drop costs associated with the ACCN, and also block the BIG out of VA and NC and the South altogether.
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Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:19 pm to bah7tea
quote:
They might be the difference between a 24 team BIG negotiating with a 16 team SEC for Playoff slots/arrangements, as opposed to a 20 team BIG versus a 20 team SEC. If you're a TV network, would you rather pair with a 24 team, coast to coast league or a 16 team league that's confined to one corner of the country?
It doesn't matter. For playoff setup, you have to have the vast majority of the blue bloods on board. Nobody will accept a playoff scenario that doesn't involve Alabama, Texas, LSU, UGA and OU. They won't accept one that doesn't involve Michigan, OSU, USC and PSU either.
Will they accept one without Clemson and FSU? Yep.
You're creating some Big 10 vs SEC scenario. The reality is the number of teams don't matter, just the ones that viewers require be involved matter. And there are no other available teams that impact that aside from Notre Dame.
quote:
The ACC won't exist in this scenario. Even with the cheap ACC contract, ESPN may come out ahead if it can move four teams over to the SEC, drop the ACC deadweight, drop costs associated with the ACCN, and also block the BIG out of VA and NC and the South altogether.
Without both the SEC and Big 10 wanting to add teams, the ACC won't be able to disband. There won't be enough landing spots for teams in the ACC to end their 30 million dollar a year TV contract.
The SEC has no financial reason to try to end the ACC. ESPN doesn't want it either, they have networks that want to add the games to televise them... even Wake vs BC. They are still going to pay those remaining teams something to get those games. And the SEC will only add teams if they end up with the same or more per team.
That means you're looking at needing at least 60 million added to the SEC team contract per team added. If you're talking about adding four teams, that's 240 million dollars that needs to be added to the existing SEC contract just to break even. The entire ACC contract for ESPN is 300 million a year and they get games for 14 teams in football and 15 for other sports. The only way it makes sense for all parties is for ESPN to be able to increase the SEC contract by 250 million or so for the SEC to want to do it and renegotiate to get the fill in games from the ACC remnants for 50 million or less.
For comparison right now, the last AAC deal was for 83 million a year.
The numbers just don't work. ESPN has a great deal (for them) with the ACC. They won't do anything to end it early.
Posted on 8/6/23 at 7:08 pm to bah7tea
I Think you're making good points.
ESPN pays about $40M to each ACC program (not including ND who isn't football member), about $20M to each Big12 program (FOX pays the other $12M/program), and will be paying somewhere between $70M now, but approaching $100M by 2030 for each SEC program going forward until the deal is up.
If 4 ACC programs went from ACC to SEC, 4 ACC to BIG 10, and another 4 ACC to BIG 12:
ESPN would Pay $120M-$240M for the teams going to SEC, save $160M for teams going to BIG10, save $80M for teams going to BIG12, and then save an additional $80M for the remaining programs who don't get an invite to either 3.
At the end of the day this would be $80-$200M in savings for ESPN. And that's assuming all these programs would be full share.
As we saw with Oregon it's entirely possible, the SEC could try to add like 2 of FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Miami at Full-Shares, then 2 of UVA/VTech/GTech/NCSt as Half-Shares (which would potentially save ESPN money in short-term).
Really for ESPN this can mostly be considered shuffling the deck, and dropping the bottom programs. Hell it's possible ESPN can enter the Big10 deal by providing half the share (and Fox covering the other half for these additions) as a way of "settling" the GOR buyout. They'd be paying the Same or less, for Better games...
ESPN pays about $40M to each ACC program (not including ND who isn't football member), about $20M to each Big12 program (FOX pays the other $12M/program), and will be paying somewhere between $70M now, but approaching $100M by 2030 for each SEC program going forward until the deal is up.
If 4 ACC programs went from ACC to SEC, 4 ACC to BIG 10, and another 4 ACC to BIG 12:
ESPN would Pay $120M-$240M for the teams going to SEC, save $160M for teams going to BIG10, save $80M for teams going to BIG12, and then save an additional $80M for the remaining programs who don't get an invite to either 3.
At the end of the day this would be $80-$200M in savings for ESPN. And that's assuming all these programs would be full share.
As we saw with Oregon it's entirely possible, the SEC could try to add like 2 of FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Miami at Full-Shares, then 2 of UVA/VTech/GTech/NCSt as Half-Shares (which would potentially save ESPN money in short-term).
Really for ESPN this can mostly be considered shuffling the deck, and dropping the bottom programs. Hell it's possible ESPN can enter the Big10 deal by providing half the share (and Fox covering the other half for these additions) as a way of "settling" the GOR buyout. They'd be paying the Same or less, for Better games...
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