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Predicting the SEC in 2024
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:02 pm
It’s super early and a lot will change… but just taking quick glance at the SEC composite schedule of 2024 and assigning a percentage chance for each team to win, this is how many wins/losses I predict in conference play for each team:
1. Texas: 6.4-1.6
2. Georgia: 6.0-2.0
3. Alabama: 5.9-2.1
4. LSU: 5.9- 2.1
5. Tennessee- 5.1-3.9
6. Ole Miss: 5.0-3.0
7. Auburn: 4.8-3.2
8. Texas A&M: 4.3-3.7
9. Oklahoma: 4.1-3.9
10. Missouri: 3.9-4.1
11. S Carolina: 3.1-4.9
12. Kentucky: 2.7-5.3
13. Florida: 2.6-5.4
14. Miss St: 2.1-5.9
15. Arkansas: 1.6-6.4
16. Vandy: 0.5-7.5
***Now, with that said, there appears to be a HUGE discrepancy in SOS.
Average SEC opponent rank (easiest to hardest):
Texas- 11.2
Tennessee- 10.5
Missouri- 10.4
LSU- 10.1
Ole Miss- 10.0
Texas A&M- 9.4
Auburn- 9.4
S Carolina- 8.5
Alabama- 8.0
Georgia- 7.6
Kentucky- 7.6
Miss St- 7.5
Arkansas- 6.9
Vanderbilt- 6.6
Florida- 6.5
Oklahoma- 5.9
What this means is Texas’ average opponent for all 8 games is the equivalent of the #11 SEC team… in fact a bit between #11 and #12. The SEC office obviously chose Texas to favor in their inaugural season. Somehow they do play Georgia…. But miss having to play Bama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn.
They luck up in getting to play all five of the bottom five teams in the league: Kentucky, Florida, Miss St, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt.
That’s INSANELY easy.
Meanwhile Oklahoma’s average SEC opponent is the equivalent of the #6 best team (actually a bit ahead of that at 5.9). The Sooners have to play Texas, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Auburn. They miss all five of the weakest teams while Texas gets to play all of them.
Anyway, Texas and Tennessee are probably ranked a bit higher than they will truly be just due to their SOS advantage, while Oklahoma and Florida are probably a bit better than they projected record portrays.
1. Texas: 6.4-1.6
2. Georgia: 6.0-2.0
3. Alabama: 5.9-2.1
4. LSU: 5.9- 2.1
5. Tennessee- 5.1-3.9
6. Ole Miss: 5.0-3.0
7. Auburn: 4.8-3.2
8. Texas A&M: 4.3-3.7
9. Oklahoma: 4.1-3.9
10. Missouri: 3.9-4.1
11. S Carolina: 3.1-4.9
12. Kentucky: 2.7-5.3
13. Florida: 2.6-5.4
14. Miss St: 2.1-5.9
15. Arkansas: 1.6-6.4
16. Vandy: 0.5-7.5
***Now, with that said, there appears to be a HUGE discrepancy in SOS.
Average SEC opponent rank (easiest to hardest):
Texas- 11.2
Tennessee- 10.5
Missouri- 10.4
LSU- 10.1
Ole Miss- 10.0
Texas A&M- 9.4
Auburn- 9.4
S Carolina- 8.5
Alabama- 8.0
Georgia- 7.6
Kentucky- 7.6
Miss St- 7.5
Arkansas- 6.9
Vanderbilt- 6.6
Florida- 6.5
Oklahoma- 5.9
What this means is Texas’ average opponent for all 8 games is the equivalent of the #11 SEC team… in fact a bit between #11 and #12. The SEC office obviously chose Texas to favor in their inaugural season. Somehow they do play Georgia…. But miss having to play Bama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn.
They luck up in getting to play all five of the bottom five teams in the league: Kentucky, Florida, Miss St, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt.
That’s INSANELY easy.
Meanwhile Oklahoma’s average SEC opponent is the equivalent of the #6 best team (actually a bit ahead of that at 5.9). The Sooners have to play Texas, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Auburn. They miss all five of the weakest teams while Texas gets to play all of them.
Anyway, Texas and Tennessee are probably ranked a bit higher than they will truly be just due to their SOS advantage, while Oklahoma and Florida are probably a bit better than they projected record portrays.
This post was edited on 12/8/23 at 4:36 pm
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Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:05 pm to AUTiger789
Texas also plays Michigan as a nonconference opponent on the road. So, who cares really. That alone gives them the hardest schedule.
This post was edited on 12/8/23 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:06 pm to AUTiger789
Texas has a very easy incoming schedule. Courtesy of Snakey and ESPN
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:09 pm to ColoradoAg
How is playing Texas A&M in College Station, Michigan at Ann Arbor, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia at home easy?
We all know Texas A&M and Arkansas are gonna play their best football all year for that game win or lose.
We all know Texas A&M and Arkansas are gonna play their best football all year for that game win or lose.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:10 pm to AUTiger789
You’re retarded
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:12 pm to LSUTigresFan
Georgia at home is the best you can hope for.
A&M is going to be a huge question mark. If Weigman stays, that could be a good game
Michigan isn't part of the SEC schedule
Arkansas is going to be a bottom of the SEC team.
For an SEC schedule, it is pretty easy ...
A&M is going to be a huge question mark. If Weigman stays, that could be a good game
Michigan isn't part of the SEC schedule
Arkansas is going to be a bottom of the SEC team.
For an SEC schedule, it is pretty easy ...
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:14 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
It’s super early and a lot will change
Not worth ranking until portal and signing day shake out.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:16 pm to AUTiger789
Where is Auburn in the list? Why did you leave out Auburn?
This post was edited on 12/8/23 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:19 pm to AUTiger789
Tennessee plays at Georgia and Oklahoma, Alabama at home. I don’t know who ranked those schedules but that’s just dumb
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:20 pm to AUTiger789
I heard one of the guys in B’ham today and someone gave him the schedule for OM next year. He said he verified it with two sources and what he had is supposed to be correct. OM will go 5-6 and 0 to start and then they go to LSU, play UGA at home, play OU I can’t remember where that game is at, and then the have to go to the Swamp before finishing up with the EGG Bowl. Lane may be bald before the end of 2024 because that’s pretty tough.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:32 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
That alone gives them the hardest schedule.
No. It definitely beefs it up, but Florida has by far the toughest schedule considering they have the second toughest conference schedule plus Florida State, Miami, and UCF.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:33 pm to AUTiger789
Florida will fire Napier before the schedule is even halfway finished ... that is simply brutal
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:35 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
How is playing Texas A&M in College Station, Michigan at Ann Arbor, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia at home easy?
They play Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi St, Arkansas, and Vandy. Couple that with 3 cupcake OOC games and they have 8 automatic wins.
They legit have a 4-game schedule, one of which is A&M with a new coach.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:37 pm to TrueLefty
Sorry left them out by accident. Pretty much in the middle… BY FAR the easiest schedule we’ve had in decades considering we always play the nation’s toughest.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:39 pm to AUTiger789
A&M has a pretty decent schedule. Too bad we are in transition ...
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:42 pm to AUTiger789
Still not respecting Missouri. Will be a playoff team in 24
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:45 pm to JesusQuintana
It is certainly possible. What does Missouri lose this offseason?
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:45 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
They legit have a 4-game schedule, one of which is A&M with a new coach.
How is that Texas's fault Florida decided to suck at football.
Regardless of A&M having a new coach, they will play that game lights out and same with Arkansas. Texas schedule next year is no different than any of the top teams in the country this year.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:46 pm to AUTiger789
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Posted on 12/8/23 at 4:48 pm to Rip Torn
quote:
Tennessee plays at Georgia and Oklahoma, Alabama at home. I don’t know who ranked those schedules but that’s just dumb
Every team plays Texas or Oklahoma…. You got the easier one in Oklahoma.
Out of the bottom 5 teams (UK, UF, MSU, Arky, Vandy)….
Texas and Tennessee get to play all five.
Ole Miss gets to play four of them.
Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mizzou, and A&M play three of them.
Florida, Kentucky, MSU, S Carolina play two of them.
Alabama, Arkansas, and Vandy only play one of them.
Oklahoma gets to play zero.
You literally have 5 automatic wins which is therefore a 3-game SEC schedule while Oklahoma gets to play zero of those easiest teams.
If you don’t think that’s an advantage, you are beyond help.
This post was edited on 12/8/23 at 4:49 pm
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