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Are we sure LSU controls their destiny?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:26 am
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:26 am
Let’s say LSU wins out and everything else is chalk
1. Ohio St (13-0)
2. TCU (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4.
The last spot either goes to 12-1 Oregon or LSU
But would the committee really pick LSU?
Forget all that’s already happened. The committee established last night that at this moment, Oregon has a better resume than LSU.
Let’s see what each team would add to their resume by winning out.
Oregon
• Win over #25 Washington (7-2)
• Win over #13 Utah (7-2)
• Win over Oregon St (6-3)
• Win over #8 USC (8-1)
LSU
• Win over Arkansas(5-4)
• Win over UAB
• Win over Aggie (3-6)
• Win over #1 Georgia (9-0)
Keeping in mind that the committee already considers Oregon > LSU, is beating Georgia enough to overcome Oregon potentially picking up four quality wins in a row?
This doesn’t even include Tennessee in the equation, which is a whole other deal. Looking at this, i think it’s tough to say with zero doubt that LSU controls their destiny at this point
1. Ohio St (13-0)
2. TCU (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4.
The last spot either goes to 12-1 Oregon or LSU
But would the committee really pick LSU?
Forget all that’s already happened. The committee established last night that at this moment, Oregon has a better resume than LSU.
Let’s see what each team would add to their resume by winning out.
Oregon
• Win over #25 Washington (7-2)
• Win over #13 Utah (7-2)
• Win over Oregon St (6-3)
• Win over #8 USC (8-1)
LSU
• Win over Arkansas(5-4)
• Win over UAB
• Win over Aggie (3-6)
• Win over #1 Georgia (9-0)
Keeping in mind that the committee already considers Oregon > LSU, is beating Georgia enough to overcome Oregon potentially picking up four quality wins in a row?
This doesn’t even include Tennessee in the equation, which is a whole other deal. Looking at this, i think it’s tough to say with zero doubt that LSU controls their destiny at this point
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Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:27 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
3. Georgia (12-1)
well that's not a guarantee at all
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
Who knows, But LSU has already achieved way more than I was even thinking this year. Right now we are playing on the house money and if we were to by the grace of God beat Georgia, it would be funnier than hell throw a monkey wrench into the whole college playoff.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
well that's not a guarantee at all
I can guarantee you 12-1 Georgia gets in over 12-1 Oregon or 11-1 Tennessee considering the head to head
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
What about Michigan?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
No one knows for sure. It's real far fetched to think TCU, Oregon and LSU all win out. Wonder what those odds would be? 100-1?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
The fact that it’s 11/9 and BK has LSU in the playoff discussion is nothing short of a miracle
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
Are we sure LSU controls their destiny?
To winning the west and SEC?
Absolutely.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:28 am to diddlydawg7
I just want LSU to make SEC title game, anything more than that is extra and no sense in even talking about until that point
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:29 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
I can guarantee you 12-1 Georgia gets in over 12-1 Oregon or 11-1 Tennessee considering the head to head
You sure Georgia goes over LSU in your scenario?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:30 am to diddlydawg7
I've only heard this in relation to them winning the SEC, which is still absolutely true.
I don't think anybody has ever said "this 2-loss team controls their own destiny to play in the CFP" other than 2017 auburn going into the SEC CG (who was then-ranked No. 2) and delusional 2017 Ohio State fans going into the B1G CG
I don't think anybody has ever said "this 2-loss team controls their own destiny to play in the CFP" other than 2017 auburn going into the SEC CG (who was then-ranked No. 2) and delusional 2017 Ohio State fans going into the B1G CG
This post was edited on 11/9/22 at 10:31 am
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:30 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
I can guarantee you 12-1 Georgia gets in over 12-1 Oregon or 11-1 Tennessee considering the head to head
Tennessee, absolutley. no brainer.
Oregon, not so sure. One team would be a 1 loss P5 conference hcamp and the other would be a 1-loss non-champ. I'm not saying we WOULD be left out, I don't really have a definitive opinion on the situation right now. I'm just saying it is most certainly NOT a slam dunk guarantee either. As mentioend a hundred times, the only reason we made the playoffs last year in a similar scenario is because the other team we compted wiht for the final slot was a 2-loss champ. If OkSt wins the big 12 with 1 loss I still believe we miss out last year.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:30 am to diddlydawg7
Why would UGA be #3 when they just lost to LSU in the SECCG? The SEC champ goes, no matter what.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:31 am to diddlydawg7
Can't disagree,but can't get upset,either. I've always been excited about the Kelly hire but also knew Big Ed left a mess.After the Florida State game I was just hoping for 7-5.
To be 7-2 and in control of the SEC West,and therefore SEC is pretty exciting to me.
To be 7-2 and in control of the SEC West,and therefore SEC is pretty exciting to me.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:31 am to nicholastiger
quote:
I just want LSU to make SEC title game, anything more than that is extra and no sense in even talking about until that point
I'd like to see LSU at least be competitive in that game, but even if we make it and get blown out, that's still one hell of a year 1.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:33 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
The last spot either goes to 12-1 Oregon or LSU
But would the committee really pick LSU?
Both teams have an argument.
Oregon-LSU lost twice we lost once.
LSU-We beat the #1 team that beat Oregon by 46
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:33 am to diddlydawg7
The correct answer is no, we don’t know, no one knows. Just enjoy the next few weeks and let the picture come into focus on the field.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:34 am to diddlydawg7
It’s a good question. The committee left out PSU (conf champ) in favor of Ohio State previously so it’s not out of the question that UGA would be in and LSU not.
The way Oregon is playing, we would have a tough time hurdling then given they currently rank Oregon ahead.
I would definitely be upset if we win out and get left out but given that I expected a 7-5 season, I would also be ecstatic.
The way Oregon is playing, we would have a tough time hurdling then given they currently rank Oregon ahead.
I would definitely be upset if we win out and get left out but given that I expected a 7-5 season, I would also be ecstatic.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:35 am to WG_Dawg
quote:Maybe not a slam dunk, but when deciding amongst teams with the same record, scoreboard should be a factor. Most especially when one team beat the other by 50 points. Week 1 makes a difference, sure, but it's not like Georgia beat them 31-24.
Oregon, not so sure. One team would be a 1 loss P5 conference hcamp and the other would be a 1-loss non-champ. I'm not saying we WOULD be left out, I don't really have a definitive opinion on the situation right now. I'm just saying it is most certainly NOT a slam dunk guarantee either.
Picking Oregon specifically over Georgia would be an absolutely unprecedented move and would destroy a ton of credibility of the committee in my opinion.
quote:Maybe. I think a 1-loss Ok State screws over an undefeated Cincinnati more than anything.
As mentioend a hundred times, the only reason we made the playoffs last year in a similar scenario is because the other team we compted wiht for the final slot was a 2-loss champ. If OkSt wins the big 12 with 1 loss I still believe we miss out last year.
Say what you will about the Big 12, but it has undoubtedly been better than the PAC-12 and ACC top-to-bottom lately, and a 1-loss champion from there will not be left out for some undefeated Group of 5 team that's also under consideration.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:36 am to Mulkey Man
quote:
Wonder what those odds would be? 100-1?
IMO:
I give TCU:
60% chance to win @ Texas
70% chance to win @ Baylor
85% chance to win vs Iowa St
65% chance to win BIG XII game
win out: 23%
I give Oregon:
80% chance to win vs Washington
70% chance to win vs Utah
75% chance to win @ Utah St
65% chance to win Pac-12 game
win out: 27%
and LSU:
80% chance to win at Arkansas
99% chance to win vs UAB
85% chance to win @ Texas A&M
20% chance to win SECCG
win out: 13%
All 3 win out: 0.8%
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