SEC Rosters and building for the future - some hope for AU

I posted this back on 9/22 on another forum that I'm on. Thought I'd pass it on for those who like data. There is hope......

Not for this season though, we’re going to suck this year, so suck it up, Buttercup. Here’s why we will suck this year, and also why the hope is greater for the future than perhaps any time since the first year Gus took the reigns:

Those of you old enough to have watched the CPD years will be familiar with this old bit of Southern Coaching Wisdom – “Every freshman you start will cost you a game”. Well kids play earlier today than ever, and the superstars in the making – Cam Coleman anyone? – can win you a game too, but there is much truth in it.

Furthermore, in the era where the Portal was inconceivable, no one had even thought of the issues inherent in first year starters who were both upperclassmen AND had zero previous familiarity with the program, coaches, terminology, checks, ad freaking infinitum – all the things that are ingrained into your psyche even if you’re ridden pine for two years prior to seeing the field if you came here as a TFr.

This leads to miscommunications, incorrect run fits, the wrong hot routes, missed blocks & blitz pickups, etc, etc, etc. All of that nets to catastrophic plays. Then there’s the total absence of playing for pride. You just got here, kind of hard to play for any pride other than personal. That last tiny measure of effort, like Carter’s desperate pursuit and miracle strip of endzone-bound Mark Ingram that began the Camback, simply isn’t there with guys who haven’t been sweating and bleeding for years.

So, first year starters are going to cost us games. How many does AU have and how to we compare to the rest of the SEC? The five programs with the most first year (TF + new xfer) players in the SEC are as follows (this is based on a 46 player two-deep for O and D, two-deeps taken from depth charts on OurLads.com):

MSU – 20 Noobs

SC – 19 Noobs

AU, OM, and ATM - Tied at 18 Noobs

Now, what about the other end of that? The five programs with the fewest Noobs in the SEC are:

UGA – 7

LSU – 10 (Four of the starting 11 and two key backups on D)

UTenn – 10 (One of whom is their emerging star QB)

UTex – 11

See a pattern here? Fifth is a five way tie, and every stinkin’ one of them is on our schedule, naturally.

Vandy – 14 (more grad xfers than any other team)

OU – 14 (Includes SIX of the starting 11 on O, and all but one OL, are new xfers, should be able to get pressure up the middle, IF we can just set the edge UPDATE EDIT - we didn't set the edge, and their veteran D finally got us on the pick 6)

AL – 14 (only six in the starting 23)

UK – 14 (Almost all on O, very experienced D, understand the low-scoring UGA game now? If we play conservative and don’t fumble, we might win this one)

Miz – 14 (Along with OM, they have to get it done this year, more on why in a moment)

It’s no coincidence that all of the top teams in the league are there, along with upstart Vandy and LSU, where the latter’s problems have been the D.

OK, so you get it now, this year will suck, why not fire CHF now and get it over with? What’s another $20M among friends?

Well, because the elite SEC programs have already built for the future, and three more are building, AU among them. Considering the five programs with the most True Freshmen + True 2nd year players (True Sophs and RSFR) in their starting 46, we have:

UF – 18 Call him Sunbelt Billy all you want, but he has a foundation here.

SC – 17 Beamer could turn them into a force (UPDATE: They are starting to jell, see OU.)

AU – 15 Beamer is one year ahead of CHF, but CHF has closed the gap fast; ours are split between TFr and 2nd year 7/8

LSU – 15 Inexperience on D has cost them, but the foundation is there

UGA and UTx – tied at 13, and most are 2nd team. All of the teams above these two start their 1st and 2nd year players out of necessity.

Where things get really telling is at the bottom of these rankings:

OM – dead last with five, ZERO of whom are TF. This year with a soft schedule is ride or die for Kiffen, and it gets worse. More in a sec.

Miz – One step above OM with 6, BUT again none are TF. They are not building for the long haul here.

MSU – 8, Lebby’s cupboard was as bare as any coach’s in recent memory

UTenn – 9, Their recruiting has to pick up THIS year, or they will begin another decline

AR – 10, the C and both T’s were new, which is why we got a lot of pressure. If we only knew how to set an edge, or could avoid rushing three on 3rd and forever…..

But, but, but, the TRANSFER PORTALLLLLLLLLL…… Well, a lot of those guys run out of eligibility quickly. Here are the top five teams by number of players who are theoretically out of eligibility this year:

OM – 28. TWENTY-EIGHT. Sixty-one percent of their starting 46, and they have ZERO TF coming up and only FIVE true 2nd year players in the two deep.

AU – 20, eight guys is a big step down, AND we rank 3rd in the league in TF+2nd Year players coming up, plus we have some guys RS’d, and CHF is recruiting lights out. Yes, we will have to hit the portal to gap fill again next year, but we are light years from OM. Call it 15 one-year portal guys + five TFr stars in the making next year, and we’re progressing. 15 One-year guys would put us in line with UTex. In this Top Five that’s really a Bottom Five, only AU and SC are building for the long term. UPDATE: Bear in mind that of these 20 players, 11 are first year xfer starters and another 8 are 2nd year xfer starters. We're not losing that much real experience.

SC – 18, Beamer with the one-year head start is building like CHF with 17 underclassmen coming up, but not at as high of a star-rating level. Still solid by USC historical standards.

Ark, Miz and UTn – 17 apiece, and all three lack for TF+2nd Year coming up, but Miz is in the worst shape with again zero TF in the two deep.

Looking at the other end of the league, bammer sadly only loses 6 this year, followed by ATM, UK, UGA and UF, the latter three at 12 apiece. You knew UGA would be good next year, but ATM, UK and UF will all be experienced teams. If UF stays the course with Napier, they may be rewarded next year.

So, all that to say, we will likely be better next year, but the schedule will likely be tougher as well with more experienced teams. Only Mizzou looks to be weaker based on the metrics here. It is in 2026, when today’s TF and 2nd year players will be upperclassmen, that we should be a force – if we get a QB. Until then, we are best served by circling the wagons and supporting our recruiting. This fits with the posts on here from insiders alluding to a "plan" and a schedule for improvement.