re: Auburn vs Kentucky Predictions

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In each of those games, he held onto the ball WAY too long and threw too late. The defense spent most of the game on the field.

In our limited sample size of Daniels, he made quick decisions and got the ball out more often than not. If we can do that for four quarters, we should move the ball, score, and keep our defense fresh.

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1) You have never seen Daniels in a situation where we must pass repeatedly to move the ball, so you have no idea whether he will hold onto the ball too long or not. Daniels had the ball in Arkansas' half of the field for almost the entire time he was in the game, and he was operating a run heavy offense that Arkansas couldn't stop because they are terrible and completely decimated with injuries at the DL. You really didn't learn anything of value about Daniels.

2) Daniels was sacked more than Arnold was against Arkansas. Two sacks against Daniels, only one against Arnold even though Arnold had more drop-back attempts. So the actual results in that game don't even line up with your hypothesis.

3) You saw Daniels operate a very run-heavy offense because Freeze has less confidence in his ability to throw. But there is nothing preventing Freeze from running the same offense with Arnold at QB. So in effect Arnold is being punished by play-calling by virtue of being trusted to do more. Its the same thing when we say that he holds onto the ball too long: well then why do we continue to run the same pass plays and concepts? We could have easily switched to a passing offense that forces him to throw designed quick passes, which is what tons of offenses do to limit sacks.

4) We are now in no-win mode with Arnold from a general fan perspective, so a lot of these takes are bordering on pettiness. Earlier this season when he was taking sacks but was the only SEC starter without an interception the argument was that he needed to throw the ball up and trust his receivers. But then when he does that and it results in a pick-six, then the narrative is that this isn't acceptable either. You can't have your cake, and eat it too. Watch that Arkansas interception again: he had a defender in his face and trusted his receiver to at least fight for the ball, which never happened as the receiver just stood there and watched the DB step in front of him. So in hindsight he should have just taken the sack and moved onto the next play, but then he would have been roasted for that decision as well.

5) The defense not being on the field for long against Arkansas had nothing to do with who was QB'ing for Auburn. They weren't on the field for long because they kept forcing turnovers. Arkansas was actually moving the ball at will and likely would have blown us out if not for the turnovers. The defense gets credit for that, not Daniels. Daniels wasn't even leading long drives: we were getting the ball at ~midfield or better and we moved it 20-30 yards and kicked field goals. Daniels had one long drive, but almost all of the yards came on a near ~50 yard completion. It wasn't some methodical drive that burned gameclock.

And how many times was JA sacked vs OU, aTm, UGA, or Mizzou?

Not disagreeing with your logic, but we’ve seen 71/2 games with JA, filled with sacks, indecisions, holding onto the ball too long, being late on timing routes, missing on the long ball, etc…

Why didn’t Daniels have more success? I don’t know- maybe play calling? Execution?

Remember Georgia in 2016, I think it was? Gus threw Sean White out there with a throwing shoulder so bad that he couldn’t throw, when he had healthy QBs on the bench. Georgia was crap and we lost.

Im just glad Hugh made the change. It’s given a lift to the team and the fans.

AU 21
KY 10

Defense great.
Offense below average.
Head coach sucks.

Luckily, Kentucky has even worse coaches.

Auburn 28
KY gel 14