some numbers

everyone holds Petrino in high regard around here for the 10 and 11 win seasons he ended on and that's fair, but it was also a product of his scheduling which has gotten a lot harder since Bert came on.

I dug in using advanced stats from Bill Connelly

Here's some things to consider
In Petrino's 1st 4 years, he faced 23 "top 30" teams, vs. Bert's 27, this alone is problematic since neither coach has a great record vs. top 30 competition.

Vs. Sub Top 30 teams, both coaches have been great, Petrino has an 85% win % and Bert has an 87% win % over a very similar sample set.

So biggest difference in records is scheduling and win % vs. top 30 teams

Here's where i think it gets interesting:
Petrino's win% vs. top 30 teams is 40% compared to bert's 33%, however if you exclude Bert's 1st year at Arkansas, he is at 36% vs. top 30 at Arkansas, and if you exclude the 1st 2 years(which i think is fair following the John L disaster), he's 43% vs. top 30 at Arkansas(equal to or better than Petrino in big games, whether or not you want to believe it). Even if you don't want to exclude the first 2 years, its worth noting that he's beating more Top 30 teams now than when he started.

The biggest problem he's faced, which should surprise no one, is since Petrino left, the West has seen A&M join the division and improve(previously sub top 30, now roughly top 30 or better) and non-conference has been replaced with TCU(Top 30 this year) and Texas Tech(50th, so not Top 30, but not the Troy and Tenn Tech that Petrino beat up on) and Toledo(which actually ranked 33rd the year they beat us. In addition, Ole Miss cheated to reach a consistent Top 30 and Dak vaulted Miss. St into Top 30. Also, Petrino got Vandy twice. In short, the average schedule is a lot tougher than it used to be.

The good news?
Bert is beating sub Top 30 better than Petrino
Bert is beating Top 30 on par with Petrino in the last 2 years
The schedule gets easier going forward(A&M is declining, Ole Miss is declining, too early to tell on Miss St, We get Vandy then Kentucky, non-conference's toughest test should be 53rd Colorado St., and while also too early to tell, i think the ogre experiment will torpedo LSU)


So there's some numbers for you guys.
If the wheels fall off and we win 5 or less this year, he should go, if not, i think there's real statistical evidence that he is improving this situation and has a real chance for 7 wins this year and 9 wins next year.