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SOGa+ College Football Rankings - Week 4
Posted on 9/27/22 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 4:45 pm
Week 4 - SOGa+ Rankings
Week 4 - SOGa+ Rankings - Conferences
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 7:00 pm
4
Posted on 9/27/22 at 5:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Waiting on the score prediction thread.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 5:15 pm to TideSaint
Alabama - 35.8
Arkansas - 15.3
Alabama by 20.5
Arkansas - 15.3
Alabama by 20.5
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Right where I want us.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:28 pm to CrimsonBoz
How real is Minnesota? Saw them at #1 on CFBGraphs and you got them 4. Minus at Happy Valley and easy schedule to show up as the B1G West Champ in Indy.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama - 35.8
Arkansas - 15.3
Alabama by 20.5
Understand that is your computer model, do you trust that predictive outcome with Bryce and WR's rounding into form against an injury riddled secondary with the worst ranked pass defense in college football?
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:15 pm to GoatHenry
quote:
How real is Minnesota? Saw them at #1 on CFBGraphs and you got them 4. Minus at Happy Valley and easy schedule to show up as the B1G West Champ in Indy.
They've been nearly perfect so far against 3 terrible teams and 1 average one. Obviously we won't know how good until they reach those tests, but they've basically played 4 perfect games to date (albeit vs bad teams).
Teams like that are difficult to quantify with numbers at this point. I doubt they are top 4 good, but it's definitely possible they are fringe top 10 good.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:16 pm to phaz
quote:
Understand that is your computer model, do you trust that predictive outcome with Bryce and WR's rounding into form against an injury riddled secondary with the worst ranked pass defense in college football?
I think Alabama in the 30s with around 450 yards of offense is reasonable given what Arkansas has done to date and what Alabama has done.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 8:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
It's quite interesting to see UGA way out in front on offense, with Bama leading the way on defense.
That's a fun reversal of recent years.
That's a fun reversal of recent years.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 9:02 am to Crimson77
And they won the Natty with the better defense.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 9:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
SoG! Always appreciate the work you put into this and other stats posts.
How to you determine the scoring prediction from the model?
Posted on 9/28/22 at 9:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
35 to 15 Bama... I think it'll be a blowout.
45-10.
45-10.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:15 am to Che Boludo
quote:
How to you determine the scoring prediction from the model?
Start with an average cfb game pts scored of 28
For Alabama's offense this week
+28.00 (avg pts scored in a CFB game from 2021)
+13.40 (Alabama offense SOGa+ #)
-5.35 (Arkansas defense SOGa+ #)
+1.29 (Alabama special teams SOGa #)
-1.50 (away disadvantage)
35.8 pts for Alabama
This post was edited on 9/28/22 at 10:16 am
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:16 am to Panthers4life
Just ran the model I used the last few years which is basically comparing teams YPP vs their opponents averages and then vs each other
Alabama 32 - Arkansas 17
Alabama : 517 yds on 68 plays (7.60 YPP)
Arkansas : 307 yds on 68 plays (4.54 YPP)
Alabama 32 - Arkansas 17
Alabama : 517 yds on 68 plays (7.60 YPP)
Arkansas : 307 yds on 68 plays (4.54 YPP)
This post was edited on 9/28/22 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 9:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A coach to keep an eye on is South Alabama coach Kane Wommack. Has the team here disciplined and well prepared. Had a veteran UCLA team beat in the Rose Bowl before he derped it up on a bad fake FG late. Smart enough to learn from that mistake.
Not ready for SEC, BIG, etc. yet but will make the move to the next step in 2 years. If shows more promise after that, stop could be ready for the bigs.
Not ready for SEC, BIG, etc. yet but will make the move to the next step in 2 years. If shows more promise after that, stop could be ready for the bigs.
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