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SOG Prediction Model Fantasyland - Bama vs OSU, Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon, Wake and Bonus
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:40 pm
This post was edited on 10/28/21 at 9:15 pm
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Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:44 pm to SummerOfGeorge
You're only wrong on 2 of them.
We slaughter wake and beat osu.
We slaughter wake and beat osu.
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:46 pm to BFANLC
quote:
We slaughter wake
Probably - Wake only has 4 P5 opponents so far and they are all terrible and play in a terrible league, so the opponent vs opponent numbers are probably propping them up some.
quote:
beat osu
I don't think we would right now. They'd have 10+ pass plays over 20 yards. Our run defense is actually very good, contrary to popular belief. Our pass defense is not.
Their offense is BY FAR the best in the country.
P5 Yards Per Play vs P5 Opponents
1. Ohio State (8.44)
2. Florida (7.07)
3. TCU (6.94)
4. Texas (6.88)
5. Texas Tech (6.84)
6. Arizona State (6.83)
7. Alabama (6.81)
8. Virginia (6.80)
9. Oklahoma (6.77)
10. North Carolina (6.76)
They average almost a full 1.5 YPP more than #2! That's frickin insane. Now, outside of Oregon their schedule has been garbage, so maybe we'll see that they slow down against Penn State, MSU and Michigan, but they haven't yet. They lost to Oregon because they had 1 turnover and 3 failed 4th down conversions. They had 612 yards.
This post was edited on 10/28/21 at 8:56 pm
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I think we'd smoke OSU.
Posted on 10/28/21 at 9:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/28/21 at 9:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/28/21 at 9:27 pm to Cousin Key
In the words of Ty
"It's a program, there's no such thing."
"Crunch"
"It's a program, there's no such thing."
"Crunch"
This post was edited on 10/28/21 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 10/28/21 at 9:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Does that factor in the Jordan Hare voodoo?
Posted on 10/28/21 at 10:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Every year we get to hear about how good OSU is..
Theyve absolutely played nobody! Beating up on big 10 stiifs like Indiana doesn't impress me
Theyve absolutely played nobody! Beating up on big 10 stiifs like Indiana doesn't impress me
Posted on 10/28/21 at 10:44 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:
Does that factor in the Jordan Hare voodoo?
The program or algorithm for that bullshite has not been written yet.
Posted on 10/29/21 at 6:32 am to phil4bama
ohio trailed at half to Minnesota who got beat by Bowling Green.
ohio got beat by oregon at home who was playing without 1/2 their starters on defense,including 3 of their top 4 players
ohio beat Tulsa and allowed over 420 yards through the air and over 500 yards of Total Offense.
Along with Tulsa,the other teams ohio beat in Akron,Rutgers,maryland,and Indiana are a combined 14 and 24 and have exactly 1 win between them over teams with a winning record.And that was Akron's thrilling win over a 5-3 Bryant juggernaut.
And at this point of the season?..PSU is also very down.Their O-Line is way below average.They cant run it much,if at all.They have 3 pretty decent ball-catchers,but Clifford struggles much of the time and has been hurt.They are really beat up defensively,having lost possibly their 3 best D-Linemen for the year to injury.And after that Illini fiasco last week which is an embarrassing Black eye the way it transpired,and the fact that their Coach is an overrated A-Hole?...This game should/could get ugly.But ohio is not unbeatable.Not even close.
ohio got beat by oregon at home who was playing without 1/2 their starters on defense,including 3 of their top 4 players
ohio beat Tulsa and allowed over 420 yards through the air and over 500 yards of Total Offense.
Along with Tulsa,the other teams ohio beat in Akron,Rutgers,maryland,and Indiana are a combined 14 and 24 and have exactly 1 win between them over teams with a winning record.And that was Akron's thrilling win over a 5-3 Bryant juggernaut.
And at this point of the season?..PSU is also very down.Their O-Line is way below average.They cant run it much,if at all.They have 3 pretty decent ball-catchers,but Clifford struggles much of the time and has been hurt.They are really beat up defensively,having lost possibly their 3 best D-Linemen for the year to injury.And after that Illini fiasco last week which is an embarrassing Black eye the way it transpired,and the fact that their Coach is an overrated A-Hole?...This game should/could get ugly.But ohio is not unbeatable.Not even close.
Posted on 10/29/21 at 6:48 am to The Inspector
quote:
ugly.But ohio is not unbeatable
Well we know that for a fact
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
tOSU appears to be playing the best football overall right now, and they have done it against a very poor SOS group of opponents since their loss. So, who knows how good they really are.
That said, they have been a team that always seems to hit their stride late. Plus, they have a hunger factor to go along with top flight talent given how Bama ended their NC hopes last year.
I really like Bama's chances. It seems a lot of narratives are out there about the decline with no appreciation for a couple key injuries and new personnel/coaching that have impacted the first half of the schedule.
Both teams have a very high ceiling if they continue to improve. It is shaping up to be a very interesting finish to the CFPs
That said, they have been a team that always seems to hit their stride late. Plus, they have a hunger factor to go along with top flight talent given how Bama ended their NC hopes last year.
I really like Bama's chances. It seems a lot of narratives are out there about the decline with no appreciation for a couple key injuries and new personnel/coaching that have impacted the first half of the schedule.
Both teams have a very high ceiling if they continue to improve. It is shaping up to be a very interesting finish to the CFPs
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:55 am to Che Boludo
The deal is right now our offense is good enough to beat anyone. Our defense, on average, is not. Now, the weird thing about us is we basically have 2 games of poor defense and 6 games of above average/good defense. If we get the performance of the 6? We could beat anybody. If we get the performance of the 2? No shot against the Top 5.
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
The fact it keeps WF less than double digits from us is downright embarrassing
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:59 am to bbeck
quote:
The fact it keeps WF less than double digits from us is downright embarrassing
yeah except we all know what would really happen if we played Wake Forest
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 8:00 am
Posted on 10/29/21 at 8:01 am to Funky Tide 8
quote:
yeah except we all know what would really happen if we played Wake Forest
Agreed - that's definitely one where a league is terrible and so the 2nd and 3rd levels of opponent comparisons don't work real well because nobody in the entire circle of statistical comparison is any good.
Honestly, it's the problem with doing the non-P5 leagues. And the ACC is basically one of those now.
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 8:02 am
Posted on 10/29/21 at 8:10 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So unless Caleb Williams goes superman, theyre gonna get blown out in the playoffs again
Posted on 10/29/21 at 8:17 am to Glorious
quote:
So unless Caleb Williams goes superman, theyre gonna get blown out in the playoffs again
They have turned back into pre-2020 defense without the pre-2020 offense to go with it.
- Beat Tulane by 5
- Beat Nebraska by 7
- Beat West Virginia by 3
- Beat Kansas State by 6
- Beat Texas by 7
- Beat Kansas by 12
Yea, they aren't good. Honestly, I'd be shocked if they finish their last 3 games (@ Baylor, vs Iowa St, @ Okie St) without 2 losses.
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 8:18 am
Posted on 10/29/21 at 8:42 am to The Inspector
Thank you for pointing this out!
OSU seems to always get a pass on their SOS, everyone jumps on their bandwagon when they are beating up these teams.
OSU seems to always get a pass on their SOS, everyone jumps on their bandwagon when they are beating up these teams.
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