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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:36 am to JustGetItRight
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:36 am to JustGetItRight
LINK ]Ford and GM are undertaking a warlike effort to produce ventilators. It may fall short and come too late
LINK ]Alabama projected to have highest death rate, fourth most coronavirus deaths in nation
LINK ]Alabama projected to have highest death rate, fourth most coronavirus deaths in nation
quote:
... The projections show Alabama could suffer anywhere from 849 deaths to 9,624 by as early as May 16. Those are the state’s low and high projections, according to the data. The mean, or average, projection, shows the state could see 5,516 deaths by May 16, when the projections say the death rate would flatten. ...
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 11:00 am
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Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:42 am to TidalSurge1
Once again that projection is flawed. They had us at 6.3K deaths more than Mississippi prior to Mississippi issuing their stay at home orders. At that time we had very similar stats to them yet a ginormous disparity in deaths.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:44 am to 1BamaRTR
quote:We have almost 2 million more people than Mississippi. Alabama has 4 cities larger than Mississippi's largest. Of the 10 largest cities between the two states, 8 are in Alabama.
Once again that projection is flawed. They had us at 6.3K deaths more than Mississippi prior to Mississippi issuing their stay at home orders. At that time we had very similar stats to them yet a ginormous disparity in deaths.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:52 am
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:45 am to 1BamaRTR
LINK ]Immunologist says he has a possible cure for the coronavirus
quote:
Distributed Bio co-founder and CEO Dr. Jacob Glanville joined "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Friday to talk about his company's laboratory engineering a therapeutic antibody to combat the coronavirus.
"So what we have done is we've engineered neutralizing antibodies that go and block the virus. The coronavirus, if you were to zoom in on it, you would see a series, a ring of spikes, and it uses those spikes to invade human cells," Glanville said. "We've identified a series of super potent antibodies that block those spikes and therefore make the virus no longer infectious."
Glanville explained the power of antibodies, saying it helped during the Ebola epidemic.
"This is the thing that turned the tide against Ebola. The Ebola used to be a death sentence, about 50 percent mortality rate," Glanville said. "And then once a good antibody neutralizing solution was made, then I think 94 percent of people can walk away."
"So that transformed Ebola from a dangerous crisis to a manageable treatment," Glanville added.
The doctor also spoke about the advantages of antibodies over vaccines.
"We've also got antibodies to treat rabies. We've got antibodies to treat RSV in babies. Antibodies are used to for anti-venom. So this is extremely well-established platform technology. It has the advantage," Glanville said. "You can produce antibodies much faster than you can make a vaccine. And as I'd heard you mentioned previously on all that modeling, every day counts. We're venting an incredible amount of money out of our economy and risking lives. And so you want to have a medicine as quickly as possible."
Glanville outlined the process, hoping to go toward human trial this summer.
"Our next move is we hand this off to the U.S. military, a consortium from the Gates Foundation and some private groups. And all of them are going to test the potency of neutralization of our therapeutic. We're also working with Charles River Laboratories that runs safety and talks to make sure the stuff safe to put into people," Glanville said. "And we're going to go into a scaled up manufacturer. So at that point, what you do as you do a phase one last two human trial, and that's we're aiming to do that towards the end of the summer around August."
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:49 am
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:58 am to pvilleguru
quote:
We have almost 2 million more people than Mississippi.
That somehow equates us to the 2nd highest death toll in the nation? Also projecting Alabama to need 1/4 of the total ICU beds in the country? Our cases/deaths compared to Mississippi are not too far apart despite us have a larger population.
Even after Mississippi implanted their stay at home order, their projection fell by a hundred. So they’re not enough to explain the massive disparity. I’m not saying it’s absurd we’ll have more cases, it’s the MASSIVE difference which is puzzling.
Louisiana, similar population, is projected at around 1800. Three days ago this projection had Alabama at 9600 deaths. One day prior it was sitting at much around Mississippi’s current projection. Now at 5600. So it was obviously because of that one day they added 13 deaths to the total not confirmed. It’s also likely they’re using reported deaths rather than confirmed deaths from illness.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 11:06 am
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:02 am to TidalSurge1
quote:
The projections show Alabama could suffer anywhere from 849 deaths to 9,624 by as early as May 16
In other words, someone had a monkey throw poo in a fan and see where it landed.
These projections are crap. I bet the guy that predicted these massive death rates here because Alabama didn't have a stay at home order will suddenly project a much lower total - even though the 'stay at home' order is no more restrictive than what was already in place.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:05 am to JustGetItRight
In about a week, they project us to have at LEAST 60 or so deaths per day. So we’ll see
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:22 am to 1BamaRTR
quote:It does if they reach their peak sooner. With our much larger population and larger cities, we have a much higher potential for many more deaths.
Our cases/deaths compared to Mississippi are not too far apart despite us have a larger population.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:32 am to pvilleguru
quote:
WSFA 12 News
@wsfa12news
Enterprise police seeing rise in domestic violence calls
Wonder what the divorce numbers are going to reach out of all this?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:33 am to pvilleguru
quote:
It does if they reach their peak sooner. With our much larger population and larger cities, we have a much higher potential for many more deaths.
What about Georgia then? We’re currently projected to have 2200 deaths than them despite us having 6M less people and significantly more beds, ICU beds, and ventilators per capita than they do. They also are listed by that site as not having implemented their stay at home order or essential business closures. Just like us. Again we’re still projected to have 2200 more deaths.
Yeah we have higher rates of certain diseases but the site doesn’t any of that. So I doubt any of that is factored into their algorithms. It’s just looking at the numbers that are put out. Again because of that 1.5 day period when they added 13 deaths to the total, not confirmed illness, count.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:36 am to pvilleguru
So my mother just informed me that a family friend passed away in the last 48 hours who had a positive COVID-19 test in Shelby County. They died from a complication from an organ failure that was non-respiratory but COVID is the cause. Not sure if any previous underlying medical conditions. Really saddened for the family. We are looking to see how long it takes ADPH to confirm this or if they label it differently.
ETA: I said earlier Talledega County but they had moved to Shelby.
ETA: I said earlier Talledega County but they had moved to Shelby.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:46 am to Carlton
Very sorry to hear that. Prayers up.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:25 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Also had a family friend die from it in Albany, GA. He was elderly and not in great health. He was on a ventilator, but his lungs aren't what killed him. His kidneys failed first, then other organ systems started shutting down. They removed life support and let nature take it's course.
It's the cytokine storm this shite causes if it gets established in your body. That's basically the body's nuclear option; it destroys everything, good and bad. And the virus triggers it. I read a paper on it the other day from a doctor there at UAB who studies cytokine storms. He has discovered that roughly 10% of people have a genetic mutation that causes the cytokine storm to not shut off so it eventually causes organ systems to fail.
LINK
It's the cytokine storm this shite causes if it gets established in your body. That's basically the body's nuclear option; it destroys everything, good and bad. And the virus triggers it. I read a paper on it the other day from a doctor there at UAB who studies cytokine storms. He has discovered that roughly 10% of people have a genetic mutation that causes the cytokine storm to not shut off so it eventually causes organ systems to fail.
LINK
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:30 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Wonder what the divorce numbers are going to reach out of all this?
Teh two biggest reasons for divorce are money and difference in sex drive. Both of these are exasperated now because of the economy and forcing everyone to stay at home.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:40 pm to East Coast Band
Wife just got cut 20% pay, reduced to 32 hours.
Anyone of you get cut back?
Can you get assistance from the government with a reduction in hours/pay?
Anyone of you get cut back?
Can you get assistance from the government with a reduction in hours/pay?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:06 pm to East Coast Band
I just don't trust the numbers on this for Alabama. According to the IMHE model that everyone is basing all of these actions on, the state of Alabama is projected to have 27,498 COVID-19 patients in the hospital by April 17. At present...there are 1,543 total cases and 212 hospitalizations.
When you do the math for the exponential growth, that comes out to over 200,000 cases needed to put over 27,000 Alabamians in the hospital. That's what they're projecting for 13 days from now.
When you do the math for the exponential growth, that comes out to over 200,000 cases needed to put over 27,000 Alabamians in the hospital. That's what they're projecting for 13 days from now.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:07 pm to phil4bama
I had a co-worker die on February 27th.
She was 44 years old and had some health problems while also being overweight.
She complained of a hurt foot on the 19th and was admitted to the ICU on the 23rd. Her kidneys shut down and they placed her on dialysis and a ventilator. On the 26th her husband told us her vitals were fairly stable and the doctors had reduced some of her meds. She was still heavily sedated and in critical condition.
Less than 24 hours later he texted us that she had passed away.
This was two weeks before the first confirmed case in Alabama. As all of you know the first one in the state was a guy who worked in my building. It's too late to know if she had the Coronavirus, but I believe she did.
The extremely crappy thing about her death is she left behind a 9 year old son.
She was 44 years old and had some health problems while also being overweight.
She complained of a hurt foot on the 19th and was admitted to the ICU on the 23rd. Her kidneys shut down and they placed her on dialysis and a ventilator. On the 26th her husband told us her vitals were fairly stable and the doctors had reduced some of her meds. She was still heavily sedated and in critical condition.
Less than 24 hours later he texted us that she had passed away.
This was two weeks before the first confirmed case in Alabama. As all of you know the first one in the state was a guy who worked in my building. It's too late to know if she had the Coronavirus, but I believe she did.
The extremely crappy thing about her death is she left behind a 9 year old son.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:09 pm to Carlton
Sorry to hear about that Carlton.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 3:26 pm to Cobrasize
EDIT: nevermind, there are still 9 reported deaths in Jefferson County, none confirmed.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 5:35 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
LINK ]Coronavirus live updates: Trump warns of 'a lot of death' in coming week as U.S. cases top 300,000 (NBC News)
This is very informative, worth bookmarking:
LINK ]Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 4/4]
This is very informative, worth bookmarking:
LINK ]Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 4/4]
quote:
Nearly 1.2 million people have been infected with a new coronavirus that has spread widely from its origin in China over the past few months. Nearly 64,000 have already died. Our comprehensive guide for understanding and navigating this global public health threat is below. As this is a rapidly developing epidemic, we will update this guide periodically to keep you as prepared and informed as possible...
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 6:19 pm
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