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Posted on 5/2/20 at 4:19 pm to Commander Data
I’m assuming half the country isn’t ever going to track recoveries.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 4:48 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:
I’m assuming half the country isn’t ever going to track recoveries.
I'm not sure what "recoveries" numbers actually show at this point aside from the same thing that daily hospitalization (admittance and release) statistics show?
It seems clear to everyone that positive tests have just been a drop in the bucket compared to actual people who have contracted it.
So, any real "recoveries" numbers would be those of future antibody tests.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 4:50 pm to wm72
My grandmother got a stimulus check........... she’s been dead since last June 
Posted on 5/2/20 at 4:52 pm to phil4bama
That is the concern. These recent cases that have spiked in GA may not be from reopening but it does show they were not flattening the curve either as they thought. As more and more testing becomes available we will see cases continue to grow.
There is no way that I will believe we are in the clear when less then 1% of the country has been tested.
There is no way that I will believe we are in the clear when less then 1% of the country has been tested.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 7:07 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
These recent cases that have spiked in GA
Did you see my post about how Georgia counts cases? That story headline "Georgia jumps 1,000 cases" was misleading at best.
Georgia's been on a steady declining trend for a while now. You can see the actual results and interpret them for yourself HERE.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 7:27 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
There is no way that I will believe we are in the clear when less then 1% of the country has been tested.
Roughly 2% of the country has been tested. The number most likely crossed 2% today, actually. Over the last 9 days we are averaging almost 250k tests per day.
quote:
cases continue to grow.
Why are people so hung up on cases? Cases are not a meaningful number when asymptomatic people are never going to be tested, and they account for the overwhelming majority of cases.
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 7:37 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Not only can we go back, we will go back.
Not in the short term.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:01 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Over the last 9 days we are averaging almost 250k tests per day.
That is an improvement over a few weeks ago, but that is till an abysmally low number for a country with our resources and wealth. We are not going to be close to normal again until we are testing close to a million people per day. And that is a failure of our federal government’s response.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:13 pm to YStar
quote:
Not in the short term.
You will be back to close to if not fully normal by this fall.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:15 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Why are people so hung up on cases? Cases are not a meaningful number when asymptomatic people are never going to be tested, and they account for the overwhelming majority of cases.
That is my point. We are basing everything regarding reopening on the number of current cases and the decline of cases. None of it has any real value when the majority of people will never be tested.
We have no idea how bad it currently is or will be. We do not have enough information to make a rational decision at this time. But yet people are screaming for reopening based on the number of cases that may be going down and as you mentioned they are really irrelevant numbers. But yet people are making arguments on both sides using data that is incomplete.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:18 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
You will be back to close to if not fully normal by this fall
Based on what your opinion or actual information? Because except for hope, speculation, and opinion I have seen nothing to support that.
The problem is we all want that to be the case but no one really has any true data to know what the immediate or short term future holds.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:32 pm to TideWarrior
LINK ]What the Proponents of ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity Don’t Say (NYT) Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die.
By Dr. Carl T. Bergstrom, professor of biology at the University of Washington, and Dr. Natalie Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.
By Dr. Carl T. Bergstrom, professor of biology at the University of Washington, and Dr. Natalie Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 9:02 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:45 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
Based on what your opinion or actual information? Because except for hope, speculation, and opinion I have seen nothing to support that.
The problem is we all want that to be the case but no one really has any true data to know what the immediate or short term future holds.
Based on what we have seen and learned about it. As Phil said earlier, we have already learned a massive amount about how to effectively treat it. That knowledge is just going to get better and better. We are seeing a much lighter availability of both testing for the antibodies and the actual disease. We are learning more and more that while highly contagious the virus is very likely not nearly as deadly as feared.
As summer rolls on you will see massive testing ability which will be combined with contact tracing to address outbreaks as they happen. The patients in those outbreaks will be treated better and faster so the load on the healthcare system will be lessened.
That’s the medical side.
The political and economic side will also demand it. People will not sit idly by and go broke because the government told them they as healthy people cannot live their lives. A few states will hold out for a while but when their neighbors all go back to living they will too.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:26 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
e are seeing a much lighter availability of both testing for the antibodies and the actual disease. We are learning more and more that while highly contagious the virus is very likely not nearly as deadly as feared.
As summer rolls on you will see massive testing ability which will be combined with contact tracing to address outbreaks as they happen. The patients in those outbreaks will be treated better and faster so the load on the healthcare system will be lessened.
In regards to the 3 type of test being used and the issues with each them is nowhere close to being fixed.
The most accurate so far is the PCR test but yet they still can not provide enough.
quote:
The PCR test requires specialized supplies, expensive instruments, and the expertise of trained lab technicians. Because of the sudden mass demand for these tests and corresponding issues in the supply chain, there have been shortages at almost every step of the process, including of swabs and reagents.
Antibody test:
quote:
Instead, they detect whether someone has the antibodies in their immune system to fight off the novel coronavirus. People develop antibodies when their body fights off the virus.
quote:
The primary issue with antibody testing is the question of accuracy. It's not yet clear if these tests are consistently correct.
quote:
"We really don't want to purchase something that may give inaccurate information," Abbott said. "It would be worse to give results that would be inaccurate. We want to make sure that we're very confident in the results we're giving."
Antigen Test:
quote:
So far, antigen tests for coronavirus don't work consistently. Based on similar antigen tests for respiratory diseases like the flu, their sensitivity -- the ability to correctly identify patients with Covid-19 -- ranges between 34% and 80%, according to WHO.
So which test will answer the question we are good to go again? Just saying as I do agree if we can get testing to be accurate maybe but we have yet to do that.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:28 pm to JustGetItRight
We likely aren’t going to be close to “normal” until there is a vaccine.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:43 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
The political and economic side will also demand it. People will not sit idly by and go broke because the government told them they as healthy people cannot live their lives. A few states will hold out for a while but when their neighbors all go back to living they will too.
Except every poll I have seen shows 7 to 8 people out of 10 say it is not safe to reopen yet. Many those said financially they need to go back to work but do not want to risk it. If you think a handful of people are upset now wait until someone tries to force the majority back to work before they feel safe.
There is a big difference between those that want to go out and feel they practice social distancing and they are safe. Going for a hike, the park, grocery shopping is a choice that many are making because they can control for the most part their risk. Forcing people to go back to work where they have to rely on someone else to control the risk is a lot different.
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 10:52 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:53 pm to TideWarrior
Sadly , if it is opened up , a lot of people are not going to feel safe yet and businesses are still going to struggle even if open . It is what it is . I know all the “open this bitch up” people don’t want to hear it and I am not advocating for either but just as you said , our paper had a poll asking about reopening and every single one said they felt it was too soon
I hope to god college football starts on time
I hope to god college football starts on time
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 5/3/20 at 1:28 am to The Spleen
quote:
That is an improvement over a few weeks ago, but that is till an abysmally low number for a country with our resources and wealth. We are not going to be close to normal again until we are testing close to a million people per day. And that is a failure of our federal government’s response.
This is easily the most inaccurate and poorly thought out post in the thread.
Posted on 5/3/20 at 9:37 am to The Spleen
quote:
We are not going to be close to normal again until we are testing close to a million people per day.
I would ask you to explain but I don’t want to hear it
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