re: Old School Prediction Model - Kentucky (6-3, 3-3) vs #8 Alabama (8-1, 6-0) (now with V2.0)

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The only games we gave up > 3.0 YPA were games where the QB ran via scramble or designed non-RPO run + State. USF : 3.85 State : 4.40 Tennessee: 3.50 LSU: 8.58 And we've shut down some really, really good run units. Texas : 2.84 Ole Miss : 1.93 A&M : 1.91 Arky : 2.78

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I bet if you were to exclude QB run numbers from the YPC totals we would be close to off the charts because no one has run effectively between the tackles on us all year. *cough Georgia*

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On the flip side, I think their pass offense has a higher ceiling than their stats show. Leary and their WRs were great against Tennessee, but that has not been the norm. If he plays normal, they are gonna struggle to move the ball. If he plays like the Tennessee game, they could make some plays. They have good WRs.

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What's your accuracy with predictions this year? Last week's for LSU (Bama 40 LSU 35) was pretty close.

As for this QB, even when UK was getting 11 YPC vs UF, he struggled to hit wide open receivers with little pressure. I know trashcan quarterbacks always seem to have their best games against us, but I can't see this guy stepping up if their run game isn't working.

Really interested to see if 'Bama continues to build from the past two games or puts it on cruise control and pisses Saban off.

They do have some good WRs, but I think our secondary has seen much better WRs this year, and been pretty efficient.

I don't want to oversell, but I think our secondary is one of the strengths of our defense, and I would put them against any WRs in the country... except when Trezmen Marshall ends up in coverage

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I don't want to oversell, but I think our secondary is one of the strengths of our defense, and I would put them against any WRs in the country... except when Trezmen Marshall ends up in coverage

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I too prefer it when our LBs dont draw assignments against the other team’s best WR. But I have extensive coaching experience so I wont be too harsh on the Bama staff. Just saying my son’s pee wee team would never.

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The closest would be ignoring games when a QB doesn't play or something.

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Soooo, what does the model look like when you exclude the USF game?

Ah, right, I have failed the reading comprehension exam:

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Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games.

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Thanks for the reminder!