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Old School Model - Sugar Bowl Edition : #2 Washington (13-0) vs #3 Texas (12-1)
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:55 pm
- #2 Washington (13-0) vs #3 Texas (12-1)
- January 1, 2024 - 8:45 PM EST, ESPN
- Texas by 4.5; O/U 63.5
- Vegas Score : Texas 34-30
Note : Stats used below and vs Top 50 off/def per FEI are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1. Sacks are included in PASSING stats and attempts.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : TEXAS 39 - WASHINGTON 28
Texas Offense
- Passing YPA (7.60) is 110% of opponents averages allowed (6.90)
- Rushing YPA (5.74) is 104% of opponents averages allowed (5.50)
- Texas averages 0.0988 pts per yard
Texas Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.06) is 92% of opponents average (7.66)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.90) is 53% of opponents average (5.43)
- Texas averages 0.0731 pts per yard allowed.
Washington Offense
- Passing YPA (6.92) is 107% of opponents averages allowed (6.48)
- Rushing YPA (4.82) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (5.29)
- Washington averages .0763 pts per yard
Washington Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.25) is 85% of opponents average (7.34)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (6.17) is 123% of opponents average (5.02)
- Washington averages 0.0682 pts per yard allowed.
PREDICTION
Texas - 39
Washington - 28
Texas
- 470 total yards on 70 plays (6.71 YPP)
- 234 yards on 35 dropbacks (6.68 YPA)
- 236 yards on 35 rushes (6.75 YPA)
Washington
- 369 total yards on 68 plays (5.42 YPP)
- 306 yards on 44 dropbacks (6.96 YPA)
- 63 yards on 24 rushes (2.61 YPA)
- January 1, 2024 - 8:45 PM EST, ESPN
- Texas by 4.5; O/U 63.5
- Vegas Score : Texas 34-30
Note : Stats used below and vs Top 50 off/def per FEI are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1. Sacks are included in PASSING stats and attempts.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : TEXAS 39 - WASHINGTON 28
Texas Offense
- Passing YPA (7.60) is 110% of opponents averages allowed (6.90)
- Rushing YPA (5.74) is 104% of opponents averages allowed (5.50)
- Texas averages 0.0988 pts per yard
Texas Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.06) is 92% of opponents average (7.66)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.90) is 53% of opponents average (5.43)
- Texas averages 0.0731 pts per yard allowed.
Washington Offense
- Passing YPA (6.92) is 107% of opponents averages allowed (6.48)
- Rushing YPA (4.82) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (5.29)
- Washington averages .0763 pts per yard
Washington Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.25) is 85% of opponents average (7.34)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (6.17) is 123% of opponents average (5.02)
- Washington averages 0.0682 pts per yard allowed.
PREDICTION
Texas - 39
Washington - 28
Texas
- 470 total yards on 70 plays (6.71 YPP)
- 234 yards on 35 dropbacks (6.68 YPA)
- 236 yards on 35 rushes (6.75 YPA)
Washington
- 369 total yards on 68 plays (5.42 YPP)
- 306 yards on 44 dropbacks (6.96 YPA)
- 63 yards on 24 rushes (2.61 YPA)
This post was edited on 12/7/23 at 2:56 pm
1
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
With Ewers healthy, I think UTx will run them off the field. uTx has a speedy and aggressive D as well.
Here's to a Bama vs UTx, all-SEC (current and future) finals!
Here's to a Bama vs UTx, all-SEC (current and future) finals!
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:09 pm to Che Boludo
Texas overall is a better team but they lose that wr vs db battle when they are on defense pretty badly. That can keep this pretty close
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:11 pm to Kcstills17
quote:
Texas overall is a better team but they lose that wr vs db battle when they are on defense pretty badly. That can keep this pretty close
Agree - if Washington plays well offensively they can hang around, but they aren't going to be able to make many mistakes. And Penix is going to have to throw it 45 times.
Texas' run defense is an old school Alabama/Georgia brick wall.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Key for Washington in my eyes, will be how well their OL stands up to that Texas DL. If they can protect Penix, they can keep it close and might have a shot in the 4th.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 6:56 pm to UAgrad93
Washington isn’t scared to throw a lot of risky passes and 50/50 stuff. Anything goes their way and it’s a close game.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 6:58 pm to CrimsonBoz
They’ve been proving models and analysts wrong all year
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:00 pm to bamabenny
I don't see Texas holding Washington to under 400 total yards.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:09 pm to TideSaint
Texas allowing 53% of run avg is incredible.
UW is going to have no chance if they can’t connect downfield consistently.
UW is going to have no chance if they can’t connect downfield consistently.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:17 pm to TideSaint
quote:
I don't see Texas holding Washington to under 400 total yards.
Oregon State and Wazzu did in 2 of their last 3 games. They're clearly gonna have to sling it around.
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