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re: Jalen Hurts vs. LSU: All Passes
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:01 am to TidalSurge1
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:01 am to TidalSurge1
A great lot of AJ's yards weren't jet sweeps and quick outs. I think a majority of the yards for Hurts last year were passes within 10 yards. (edited with stats)
Hurts has his own attributes to support, like running the ball. Conversely, McCarron wasn't as good a runner. Trying to spin the point that Hurts is as good a passer as AJ, though, just undermines the real accomplishments of Jalen, imo.
In 2016
86 completions behind line of scrimmage
73 completions within 10 yards of LOS
53 completions 10+ yards
That was not the same type offense with McCarron.
Hurts has his own attributes to support, like running the ball. Conversely, McCarron wasn't as good a runner. Trying to spin the point that Hurts is as good a passer as AJ, though, just undermines the real accomplishments of Jalen, imo.
In 2016
86 completions behind line of scrimmage
73 completions within 10 yards of LOS
53 completions 10+ yards
That was not the same type offense with McCarron.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 8:33 am
2
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:23 am to UASports23
Is it apples to apples? Jalen is in years 1 & 2 in college. AJ was in years 3 & 4.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:26 am to Funky Tide 8
quote:
So, because they are different types of QBs, we are to discount one of Hurts's major attributes when comparing him to other QBs? Production is production, friend.
Is there no Jalen-centric post that is just slightly negative that you don't get pissy about?
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:38 am to RTR America
quote:
Is there no Jalen-centric post that is just slightly negative that you don't get pissy about?
I'm not sure how my post that you quoted can possibly construed as me getting "pissy?" It was as simple question. If you don't think that its a fair question, then please, refute it. Furthermore, please point me to any of my posts in this thread where I have gotten "pissy" towards a negative-Jalen post.
It seems like you are the one getting "pissy." Its Friday buddy, lighten up.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 8:42 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:40 am to Funky Tide 8
quote:
getting "pissy
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:42 am to Huddie Leadbetter
that's an impressive pug.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:46 am to Funky Tide 8
ehh. for sure
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:51 am to Huddie Leadbetter
quote:
A great lot of AJ's yards weren't jet sweeps and quick outs. I think a majority of the yards for Hurts last year were passes within 10 yards. Hurts has his own attriböutes to support, like running the ball.
I know. Most other fans probably know too.
quote:
Trying to spin the point that he's as good a passer as AJ just undermines it.
I didn't put a spin on anything. I simply pointed out that there wasn't a significant difference in their passing production, in terms of yardage, TDs, INTs, early in their careers.
In 2016, Saban opted to go with a DT QB, one who was better at running than passing. The 2016 offense was designed to take advantage of his strength and minimize unfavorable impact of his weakness. It worked pretty well; however, the lack of much downfield passing threat was a liability.
Saban has admitted to not doing a very good job last year of developing Jalen as a passer. That has been a major focus since then. It appears to me that 2017 offensive gameplans have been designed in part to support Jalen's development as a passer, and to provide important in-game reps for Tua. Jalen is improving as a passer, but still needs to get better, especially on deep passes.
You, me and most reasonably intelligent fans know all these things. And most posters on this board know you would rather Tua be the starting QB.
If you want to stir up a pissing contest, pick another poster.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 9:00 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:52 am to TidalSurge1
quote:
I didn't put a spin on anything
Oh, but no. I wasn't talking about you. Yours was just the last post in the thread, and I clicked on it to post. Most forums you don't have to click on another post to comment. This one, you do.
edit: The post comparing AJ and Jalen was further up in the thread. I should have scrolled up to post to it. Sorry about that.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 8:56 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 8:57 am to Huddie Leadbetter
No problem.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 8:58 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 9:37 am to Huddie Leadbetter
quote:
A great lot of AJ's yards weren't jet sweeps and quick outs.
Um, that's pure revisionist history. As this February 2013 chart and study by SB Nation shows, 64% of AJ's 2012 throws were under 10 yards and 45% were under 5 yards from the LOS.
So using the 2016 numbers you posted above, true freshman Hurts threw about 10% more of his passes under 10 yards from the LOS than redshirt junior AJ did in the 2012 national title season.
I'm not going to try to find 2017 numbers, but my guess is that the <10 percentage has gone down this year and is probably lower than the 2012 numbers.
You're right that it isn't the same offense and I understand many Bama fans prefer the pure pro set, but the numbers don't lie. The passing game LOOKS different, but WHERE we throw the ball hasn't changed much at all.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 9:42 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
45% were under 5 yards from the LOS
Wow
quote:
So using the 2016 numbers you posted above, true freshman Hurts threw about 10% more of his passes under 10 yards from the LOS than redshirt junior AJ did in the 2012 national title season.
I'm not going to try to find 2017 numbers, but my guess is that the <10 percentage has gone down this year and is probably lower than the 2012 numbers.
Per CFB Film Chart, 59% of his passes have been 10 or less yards from the LOS.
% of Passes in the air 10 yards or less from LOS
AJM 2012 : 64.3%
Hurts 2016 : 66.8%
Hurts 2017 : 59.4%
% of Passes in the air 20+ yards from LOS
AJM 2012 : 14.3%
Hurts 2016 : 16.2%
Hurts 2017 : 17.1%
That's pretty wild. I would have never guessed that. I'd guess that AJ completed a much higher percentage of his 14% of throws 20+, though.
quote:
You're right that it isn't the same offense and I understand many Bama fans prefer the pure pro set, but the numbers don't lie. The passing game LOOKS different, but WHERE we throw the ball hasn't changed much at all.
Numbers definitely tend to agree with you. I would say, though, that we aren't as "good" at it right now. But the breakdown of what we are trying to do is pretty similar.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 9:50 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 9:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
I was surprised too.
We all remember the deep strikes to Coop - and further down in that same story they have a chart of success rates on different ranges. AJ was just off the damned chart good on them.
20-24: 63.6%
25-29: 55.6%
30-34: 40%
35-39: 85.7%
40+: 57.1%
When AJ went deep in 2012 somebody was getting torched, but in between he threw a ton of short stuff that often got broken for bigger gains.
We all remember the deep strikes to Coop - and further down in that same story they have a chart of success rates on different ranges. AJ was just off the damned chart good on them.
20-24: 63.6%
25-29: 55.6%
30-34: 40%
35-39: 85.7%
40+: 57.1%
When AJ went deep in 2012 somebody was getting torched, but in between he threw a ton of short stuff that often got broken for bigger gains.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I would say, though, that we aren't as "good" at it right now
I'm not trying for one second to say we are as "good" as that 2012 unit. That offense is without a doubt tGOAT of the Saban era.
quote:
But the breakdown of what we are trying to do is pretty similar.
That's the issue I had with Huddie's post. We haven't changed philosophy (or maybe better to say we've returned post-Kiffin) we're just doing it with a QB whose skill set causes it to look different.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:07 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
We haven't changed philosophy (or maybe better to say we've returned post-Kiffin) we're just doing it with a QB whose skill set causes it to look different.
Yep. I don't know how anyone could watch us this year and think we throw a lot of short stuff. Honestly, I'd almost complain that we don't throw enough easy 3-7 yard throws. However, I think the better defenses have dictated that. Load the area within 10 yards and put their DBs on islands with our receivers. Make our receivers beat man and our QB make a good throw. We've been ok at both, but not great at either, and it's made us bog down some.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 10:09 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:09 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
When AJ went deep in 2012 somebody was getting torched, but in between he threw a ton of short stuff that often got broken for bigger gains.
We hit a lot of post/drag stuff where Coop broke somebody's ankles or beat 1 on 1 coverage inside and separated. And AJ made really good throws, generally, on those.
We also had two guys, Cooper and Norwood, who won almost all of their jump balls/contested catches. We have one of those guys now (though I don't think Ridley is as good as either of those two at it), and freshmen who seriously struggle with it. It makes deep balls a whole lot more difficult.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 10:11 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:16 am to SummerOfGeorge
That's a good point George. Honestly and this is my opinion I think Ridley and Ruggs are the most reliable receivers catching wise we have followed closely by Jerry J. I think those 3 are your best. Foster and Sims seem to be Ok at this point. And I need to see more of Smith.
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 10:17 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
I never cease to be amazed at some you guys' stat digging. 
This post was edited on 11/10/17 at 10:27 am
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:27 am to Funky Tide 8
quote:
I never cease to be amazed at some you guys's stat digging.
It's all from CFB Film Room and PFF CFB. And, they are watching the film and marking down the stats, so there is some error in there. But it's interesting nonetheless.
Posted on 11/10/17 at 10:44 am to JustGetItRight
And 15.4% of McCarron's were behind the line of scrimmage, compared to 40.5% of Hurts' passes last year.
Your chart doesn't give the number of passes or completions, but taking the numbers of 15.4 + 29.4 + 19.5 (under 10 yards) and averaging them, the pct is 21.4%, whereas under 10 yards for Hurts is 75%. Hell of a difference, eh.
Thanks for the chart. That was helpful.
Your chart doesn't give the number of passes or completions, but taking the numbers of 15.4 + 29.4 + 19.5 (under 10 yards) and averaging them, the pct is 21.4%, whereas under 10 yards for Hurts is 75%. Hell of a difference, eh.
Thanks for the chart. That was helpful.
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