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re: Damn we need some help. CFP related...
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:36 am to bamabenny
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:36 am to bamabenny
quote:
FSU is in a tough spot but their game against UF just got easier with Mertz injured and they out-talent Louisville in a big way.
FSU just lost their QB for the season. FSU is going to struggle to win out at this point and would not be surprised if Louisville beats them. Also will not be surprised if the committee views FSU as not top 4 when all is said and done without their starting QB.
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Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:41 am to TizzyT4theUofA
quote:
They will not put us in over an undefeated FSU, especially when they played 2 P5 OOC teams. There is no argument for putting us in over them.
I think they would without their QB. The committee will need to ask the question would FSU be undefeated and a top 4 team now without him and the question would be no.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:52 am to YStar
quote:
easily get picked over an undefeated FSU WITH (*out) Travis
That will not happen.
Winning games and championships matter for the CFP committee. A P5 undefeated champ isn't being left out for a 1 loss champ. If it happens, I'd gladly take it. But, nothing has shown that the CFP committee is willing to align their words and deeds and truly focus on the best 4 at the end of the season.
This post was edited on 11/19/23 at 10:57 am
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:56 am to Che Boludo
quote:
That will not happen.
They have done worse in the past.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:58 am to TideWarrior
quote:
The committee will need to ask the question would FSU be undefeated and a top 4 team now without him and the question would be no.
That is a hypothetical that I do not believe they will put a lot weight in because they will have beaten 2 P5 teams with their backup and one being a conference championship game to be undefeated.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:58 am to Teague
quote:
You think we'd jump over an undefeated ACC champ? LOL. Never happen.
When we do and I mention all the people who said we wouldn't try not to join the chorus of angry downvoters
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:00 am to YStar
quote:
When we do and I mention all the people who said we wouldn't try not to join the chorus of angry downvoters
I hope you’re right but I don’t think the committee will do it. There is absolutely no reason for Michigan to not be the lowest ranked undefeated and for Oregon to be the top one loss when comparing resumes.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:01 am to TideWarrior
quote:
The committee will need to ask the question would FSU be undefeated and a top 4 team now without him and the question would be no
The questioned asked will be the same one that has gotten OSU in when they have even been beaten head-to-head (PSU).
How is the team performing now? Are they on the rise? How are they winning?
Last I checked going on an unbeaten run after finally figuring out our QB situation and beating multiple ranked teams by double digits while having the biggest win of the year beating UGA answers that.
They will do what they always do; find a way to fit the teams they know they have to.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:02 am to YStar
quote:
They have done worse in the past.
A P5 champ with an equal or better W-L record has never been left out for a non-champ. It's unique, given the number of contenders at this point. Still, I doubt they'll break the only consistent application of ranking they have applied, which is that record and championships are the two most significant discriminators.
If two P5 champs are being considered, and one is undefeated and the other is not, the undefeated is in.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:11 am to YStar
quote:
The questioned asked will be the same one that has gotten OSU in when they have even been beaten head-to-head (PSU).
Great example. pSu had a been trounced by UM and lost to Pitt.
They beat OSU in a close game where STs was a factor.
Psu's championship game performance was enough to forgive the head to head UM loss and bolt them to #5.
However, OSU had 1 loss to PSU's 2. Had PSU beaten Pitt or UM, tOSU isn't in the CFPs that year. Record matters. And, PSU is a 3 seed over 1 loss Udub at 4.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:28 am to Che Boludo
quote:
If two P5 champs are being considered, and one is undefeated and the other is not, the undefeated is in.
You can repeat this as much as you want but they have never stated that and they have shown in the past they fit the teams they have to.
An SEC champ who beat the unbeatable Georgia is the special case.
Again, I can't wait for this to happen so the chicken littles can finally sleep at night and all the Alabama haters (including those alters posting on here) can lose their minds in anger and conspiracy
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:37 am to YStar
quote:
SEC champ who beat the unbeatable Georgia is the special case.
Again, you may prove to be correct. There is almost always an eventual exception to an established norm.
Hope you're right. But, I'd also like the football gods to remove doubt and have 1 of FSU or UTx removed from the equation
This post was edited on 11/19/23 at 11:42 am
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:39 am to YStar
quote:
The questioned asked will be the same one that has gotten OSU in when they have even been beaten head-to-head (PSU).
How is the team performing now? Are they on the rise? How are they winning?
This is why I think if we beat UGA we could jump FSU even if they win out.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 11:54 am to TideWarrior
Bama should definitely jump Oregon for sure. Oregon has beaten no one that is currently ranked (Utah is about to drop out).
Posted on 11/19/23 at 12:28 pm to harmonics
We only need one team to lose game they are not supposed to lose. The loser of Ohio St/Mich is out. UGA is out if Bama beats them.
If Wash loses and then beats Oregon they are out.
If Texas loses they are out.
If FSU loses(very likely now) they are out.
The only guarantee that Bama has of being left out is if Washington, Texas and FSU all win out. That’s very unlikely.
There is a possibility we are left out of Texas FSU and Oregon win out but I doubt the committee will put Oregon over Bama if/win we beat UGA. That would be the best win anyone has had all season.
If Wash loses and then beats Oregon they are out.
If Texas loses they are out.
If FSU loses(very likely now) they are out.
The only guarantee that Bama has of being left out is if Washington, Texas and FSU all win out. That’s very unlikely.
There is a possibility we are left out of Texas FSU and Oregon win out but I doubt the committee will put Oregon over Bama if/win we beat UGA. That would be the best win anyone has had all season.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 12:29 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
This is why I think if we beat UGA we could jump FSU even if they win out.
No. The committee will not leave out an unbeaten major conference champion.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 12:58 pm to 11and18gggchamp
quote:
So you're saying if Bama beats Uga, uga is still in and Bama still may not be???
Possibly yes. I don't see or recall a scenario where a #1 has fallen past 4 th. Having UGA ranked #2 is a better scenario for Bama than Being ranked#1 ...and that could happen if UGa struggles against tech and OSU runs UM because the winner of OSU UM is in. But the two time defending national champions and only losing in the SECCG aren't sitting it out with a loss to Bama if FSU and UW Tx continue to win...I don't think Bama makes it with
A win over UGa.. again Bama may very well be able to win it all but the committee will have to do some unprecedented maneuvering
Ore St needs to beat Ore. Lville needs to beat FSU OSU needs to blast UM and Bama needs to win out and do so with needing game winning stop/drive.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 1:03 pm to SuperOcean
quote:
Possibly yes.
No they wouldn’t. Why would Bama not be in and Texas and will? Head to head? Then why doesn’t head to head apply to Bama and UGA in this scenario?
quote:When is the last time where there have been this many undefeated and 1-loss P5 teams? This is season is very different then any of past CFP seasons
I don't see or recall a scenario where a #1 has fallen past 4 th
Posted on 11/19/23 at 1:06 pm to SuperOcean
If Alabama goes 12-1 and beats Georgia at a neutral site in the last game of the regular season (and is a conference champ where Georgia isn't) they are ahead of Georgia in the pecking order. That isn't even really a debate.
Posted on 11/19/23 at 1:13 pm to harmonics
They don't want us to embarrass them again this season.
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