re: 2017-18 Alabama Basketball Season Thread: 20-16 (10-11)

Tennessee definitely can beat us

quote:

---

We won't lose some of these y'all are predicting us to lose. We won't lose to Tennessee at home , or miss St and Georgia...Don't see it. Seriously undervaluing this team

---

We lost at home to an undermanned UCF team. We can certainly lose to a very solid Tennessee team.

Georgia and State on the road? We can very much lose those games.

So let me get this straight, we re gonna have a worse conference record than last year even though we have a significantly better roster. Georgia isn't good and state looked awful last night. UCF is probably gonna be a tournament team, so that loss isn't as bad as some tried to make it. We let them dictate and it was a lesson learned because we beat a very good Rhode island team after that. I've stated before that this schedule has prepared this young team for conference play better than most of the other schedules sec teams are playing. The league has 7 really good to good teams and we are one of those

Wasn't singling out Tennessee, the miss St and Georgia thing was more of what I was referring to. I disagree about us looking bad, aside from UCF and that was more about our guys getting lulled into playing that ugly style

quote:

---

So let me get this straight, we re gonna have a worse conference record than last year even though we have a significantly better roster.

---

It’s completely possibly and it isn’t really all that uncommon across sports.

9-9 this year is much better than 9-9 last year due to the depth that the conference has as a whole now.

quote:

---

9-9 this year is much better than 9-9 last year due to the depth that the conference has as a whole now.

---

Also, last year we had about as easy of a schedule as possible in conference. We played the 11-14 teams twice each. This year we have to play probably two of top 3 twice, and Auburn will probably be about 6 instead of 11.

quote:

---

Wasn't singling out Tennessee, the miss St and Georgia thing was more of what I was referring to. I disagree about us looking bad, aside from UCF and that was more about our guys getting lulled into playing that ugly style

---

I wasn't saying we will definitely lose to those teams, but road games in Starkville and against a solid Georgia team are not gimmees.

Georgia has already beaten Saint Mary's and won at Marquette. They have a borderline All-American big man. Winning there will not be a walk in the park.

quote:

---

Also, last year we had about as easy of a schedule as possible in conference. We played the 11-14 teams twice each. This year we have to play probably two of top 3 twice,

---

This combined with the bottom half of the SEC being significantly improved is the right answer.

Going 9-9 this year is significantly more impressive than last year's 10-8

quote:

---

Those teams were bad, really bad

---

As I point out below, the 2017-2018 schedule for Alabama is extremely hard relative to last year. The 2x H/A games are significantly harder

I wouldn't say Ole Miss was "really bad" but the rest were. All of Alabama's H/A games in 2017 were against the bottom half of the conference (none in the top 6), none had records >0.500 in conference play

12 Games vs teams without winning conf record
2x #14 Mizz
2x #13 LSU
2x #12 MSU
2x #11 Auburn
1x #10 TAMU
1x #9 Tennessee
2x #8 UGA

6 Games vs Teams with winning conf record
1x #1 UK
1x #2 UF
1x #3 Arkansas
1x #4 South Carolina
1x #5 Vanderbilt
1x #6 Ole Miss


ETA- Compare to 2018 play rotating opponents

2x #22 UF -> Instead of Mizzou 2016: 7-23 (2-16)
2x #9 TAMU -> Instead of UGA 2016: 19-15 (9-9)

Then your permanent H/A 2x games teams should be improved

LSU -> Likely to match 2016 win total by end of December
Aub -> Eh, hard to gauge but always gives a tough game
MSU -> Returns everyone, adds 5* PG + projected better W/L

quote:

---

So let me get this straight, we re gonna have a worse conference record than last year even though we have a significantly better roster

---

I doubt you'll have a worse conference record. Doing my standard grouping W/L with Good/Expected/Poor seasons (Good/Poor is within reason,

GenesChin SEC Play Projections for Bama
Good: 13-5
Expected: 10-8
Poor: 8-10


Reach Games- 2 (G: 1W E: 0W P: 0W)
@UK
@TAMU

Likely Ls- 2 (G: 1W E: 1W P: 0W)
@UF
TAMU


Toss Up Types- 6 (G: 4W E: 3W P: 2W)
@Vandy **that stupid arena
@AU
AU **Rivalry Games bump
TN
Arky
UF



Likely W- 7 (G: 5W E: 5W P: 4W)
@LSU
@UGA
@OM
@MSU ** fringe tossup
MSU
SC ** fringe tossup
Mizz ** fringe tossup


WTF potential L's- 1 (G: 1W E: 1W P: 1W)
LSU