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re: 2017-18 Alabama Basketball Season Thread: 20-16 (10-11)
Posted on 2/11/18 at 12:47 pm to GenesChin
Posted on 2/11/18 at 12:47 pm to GenesChin
So they're ranked because 4 of their 7 losses were to good teams? They only have 2 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins. 14 of their 18 wins are Q3 and Q4. Their RPI is 39 and SOS 77. That's not a good resume.
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 12:49 pm
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Posted on 2/11/18 at 1:04 pm to GenesChin
quote:
3 of those 5 conf losses were top 10-15 opponents
Michigan should be a top 20-25 based on resume. Their losses are on the road and 4-5 of them against seeded teams
Look at their wins, dude. They have little to brag about and have played the 77th hardest SOS. There is no way they should be ranked.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 1:06 pm to GenesChin
Gene, what are they saying about Bryce Brown?
He going to be well going into the post season?
He going to be well going into the post season?
Posted on 2/11/18 at 1:09 pm to JustGetItRight
anyone checked out the stubhub prices for the Aub game? holy cow. 
I think I'll watch on tv.
Their standing room only up top isn't terrible though. You are right on top of the court. I like standing up better anyway.
I think I'll watch on tv. Their standing room only up top isn't terrible though. You are right on top of the court. I like standing up better anyway.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:16 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Gene, what are they saying about Bryce Brown?
He going to be well going into the post season?
Shoulder sprain. Seems to be relatively minor so I'd expect him ready for the SECT/NCAAT. As for the next couple weeks, I wouldn't be shocked if he misses UK or USCe. I'd think he'd be a limited participant vs Bama
quote:
Look at their wins, dude. They have little to brag about and have played the 77th hardest SOS. There is no way they should be ranked.
Strength of record is one of the best predictors of seeding and IYAM the best "resume" ranking
Michigan is #21 according to SOR using ESPN BPI LINK. You know, right around 20-25 like I said.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:22 pm to GenesChin
Well I hope not because if it is we're squarely on the bubble right now as the last 12 seed.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:30 pm to GenesChin
It did a pretty mediocre job getting the top 16 seeds today. The committee gave us the criteria they're using to rate teams' wins. Michigan doesn't have hardly any of those wins.
Forget the metric. Do you personally look at Michigan's resume and say that's a 5/6 seed?
Forget the metric. Do you personally look at Michigan's resume and say that's a 5/6 seed?
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:31 pm to McGregor
quote:
anyone checked out the stubhub prices for the Aub game? holy cow. ? I think I'll watch on tv
I did last year since it would be a short drive from Columbus. It was way more than I expected. I'm not even going to check this year.
I might try to make it to the SEC Tourney depending on what I have going on at work.
If somehow Bama plays in Atlanta for the NCAAT, I'll def be there.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Well I hope not because if it is we're squarely on the bubble right now as the last 12 seed.
I'd say that it gets less useful the farther down the rankings you go.
While I think Bama will end up a 7-8 seed, I think if seeding was done today, Alabama probably would be a 10-11 seed though.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:34 pm to McGregor
quote:
anyone checked out the stubhub prices for the Aub game?
Trying to sell some Bama/UK tickets at these prices. I've been to enough games, I want to start subsidizing tickets for next year
Posted on 2/11/18 at 2:35 pm to GenesChin
quote:
Alabama probably would be a 10-11 seed though.
lower than every bracketologist. ShockingPosted on 2/11/18 at 2:45 pm to GenesChin
quote:
While I think Bama will end up a 7-8 seed, I think if seeding was done today, Alabama probably would be a 10-11 seed though
LOL. Gene, you're wearing your Auburn glasses for sure.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:16 pm to BigBird09
quote:
lower than every bracketologist. Shocking
Bracketologists are a sham. There is a reason they are historically garbage
More importantly though, they have to project future game results since they are graded based on the actual selection... not whether they would have picked the bracket if it ended 2/11
There is a reason why the NCAAT bracket released is so far off from what almost all the bracketologists predicted
quote:
LOL. Gene, you're wearing your Auburn glasses for sure.
YOu may be right that it isn't fair post TN massacre. Like I said though, I think Bama will improve seeding moving forward. I just think if the season ended today that it would be hard to justify Bama in the top half of seeding.
I think the SOR is the extreme, but I don't think it is completely off in that Bama's resume has some red flags for a top seed. I don't think a resume of 6 losses to non NCAAT teams and only 1 marquee road win getting a top seed.
To me though I think there is a clear difference between seeding and making the field. I don't believe Bama is a bubble team and is safely in right now based on how selections are reportedly made though
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:16 pm to BigBird09
Aaron Jordan on twitter:
.@AlabamaMBB has 5 wins (5-1) over teams ranked in the @AP_Top25 this year. It’s the most victories over ranked teams in a single season in program history, surpassing 4 other seasons that had 4 top 25 wins (1982-83, 1986-87, 2001-02 & 2015-16).
#BuckleUp
#RollTide
.@AlabamaMBB has 5 wins (5-1) over teams ranked in the @AP_Top25 this year. It’s the most victories over ranked teams in a single season in program history, surpassing 4 other seasons that had 4 top 25 wins (1982-83, 1986-87, 2001-02 & 2015-16).
#BuckleUp
#RollTide
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:23 pm to Bamafan15
Rod Grizzard:
quote:
Would anybody wanna see a Mens Alabama vs UAB Alumi basketball game??? Seriously tho been talking to a few guys about it.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:24 pm to BigBird09
Yea, I don't get the Michigan thing. ESPN's SOR is about as good as their BPI/FPI.
#21 Michigan (6 seed)
- Q1 : 2-5
- Q1/2 : 4-7
- 0 Q3/4 losses
- Sagarin : 28th
#23 New Mexico State (6 seed)
- Q1 : 1-2
- Q1/2 : 1-2
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 54th
#31 MTSU (8 seed)
- Q1 : 1-3
- Q1/2 : 5-4
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 56th
#36 Nebraska (9 seed)
- Q1 : 0-6
- Q1/2 : 3-8
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 58th
#40 Boise State (10 seed)
- Q1 : 0-3
- Q1/2 : 5-5
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 60th
#45 Vermont (12 seed)
- Q1 : 0-3
- Q1/2 : 1-5
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 68th
#48 ULL (12 seed)
- Q1 : 0-1
- Q1/2 : 0-3
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 75th
#49 Alabama (12 seed)
- Q1 : 6-3
- Q1/2 : 9-8
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 42nd
LOL - what a joke. 13 spots and 3 seeds behind Nebraska lolol.
We're a 8-10 right now, probably, I'd guess.
#21 Michigan (6 seed)
- Q1 : 2-5
- Q1/2 : 4-7
- 0 Q3/4 losses
- Sagarin : 28th
#23 New Mexico State (6 seed)
- Q1 : 1-2
- Q1/2 : 1-2
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 54th
#31 MTSU (8 seed)
- Q1 : 1-3
- Q1/2 : 5-4
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 56th
#36 Nebraska (9 seed)
- Q1 : 0-6
- Q1/2 : 3-8
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 58th
#40 Boise State (10 seed)
- Q1 : 0-3
- Q1/2 : 5-5
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 60th
#45 Vermont (12 seed)
- Q1 : 0-3
- Q1/2 : 1-5
- 0 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 68th
#48 ULL (12 seed)
- Q1 : 0-1
- Q1/2 : 0-3
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 75th
#49 Alabama (12 seed)
- Q1 : 6-3
- Q1/2 : 9-8
- 1 Q3/4 loss
- Sagarin : 42nd
LOL - what a joke. 13 spots and 3 seeds behind Nebraska lolol.
We're a 8-10 right now, probably, I'd guess.
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Whenever ESPN tries to create their own statistics it ends up being a mess. Like when they tried to make QBR a thing.
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Now, but the last part of the schedule is rough.
The folks doing the seeding estimates may be peeking ahead a bit too
The folks doing the seeding estimates may be peeking ahead a bit too
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea, I don't get the Michigan thing.
Michigan is just the extreme case of not being punished for losing "expected loss" games. If you were to just look at their resume sans top 15 opponents they are 19-3 and while not a top team definitely in the 20-25 type range discussion
So then consider that in those 5 games (4 on the road) they were supposed to lose UM had a pt differential of about -10. THat is better than you'd expect for a team that would be below top 25
The only thing really throwing the logic in a loop though is that thee NCAA didn't view MSU as a top team. The logic breakds down the further MSU/OSU/UNC fall down teh rankigns
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 2/11/18 at 3:49 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
Whenever ESPN tries to create their own statistics it ends up being a mess. Like when they tried to make QBR a thing.
Strength of Record as a concept (not necessarily ESPN's) is a great concept and should be used in the selection process. It helps identify some of the flaws in SOS. While there are other things that should be accounted for in selection/rankings, I think this should be a baseline type metric
Put it this way, I expect the #20 team to lose to the #5 team. So when the #20 loses to #5 by a reasonable margin, I don't view them as less deserving of the #20 spot
This post was edited on 2/11/18 at 3:52 pm
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