re: OT: Corona Panic 2020

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If only 28% with symptoms test positive there is no way that 50% of the general population would test positive. The overall Georgia infection rate must be lower than 28%.

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That's oversimplified linear thinking, when this is not a linear problem.


10 million people in GA (actually 10.5 but lets keep it whole numbers for ease of explanation)

As of today, 9881 confirmed cases (lets call it 10,000 for ease of explanation)


Let's say only 10% of infected people show symptoms and meet the strict criteria for testing. And we do know 28% of those are positive. That number today is 10,000. But if that's only 10% of who is actually infected, then the real number is 10,000 + 90,000 untested who are walking around spreading it, and have been for weeks.

At this point in time, if you look at the exponential curve of how contagious this is (take Albany for example, two funerals and two church services wiped out 28 people), each of those 90,000 only have to spread it to two people, who spread it to 2 more people, who spread it to two more people, and it's a quarter of the state's population.

Add in the known fact this has been snowballing for 3+ weeks, it is actually unreasonable to think half of Georgia hasn't been exposed. Higher in urban, lower in rural.


ETA- I forgot to mention a very important component, people aren't getting antibody tests yet, so previously infected from Feb and March won't show positive on a test today. Actual test averages will never show 50% much less 100%, yet eventually 100% will have been exposed or infected.


ETA2- Even of the 10% who have symptoms and meet the strict criteria for testing, there is still several day lag from when they become contagious to when they become symptomatic, to when they get the test, to when it comes back positive. During most of that lag time, even those people are spreading it (to other people who are spreading it [to other people who are spreading it]).


ETA3- A couple weeks ago Rand Paul had a test as a precautionary measure because he had been in contact with a carrier. He had no symptoms. He got a test because he's a senator, and they enjoy such privileges. He tested positive. So he stayed at home. He says he never had any symptoms. A week or two later, a new test showed negative, so now he's out and about and actually volunteering at a Kentucky hospital (he's a dr by trade). So what's my point? There's millions of people just like Senator Paul but they don't have the privilege of taking a test if they think they've been in contact, showing no symptoms, etc. But because they don't have that test, they are still out and about participating as either a customer or a worker at any of the 70% of "essential" services that everyone is still using. If Paul never took that test, and then got a test today, it would show negative, and linear thinking like yours would put him into the category of "hasn't been infected yet".

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Your doctor asks if your grandparents aunts and uncles and cousins have had cancer (life insurance already gets the MIB). Without any DNA swab, an aggressive genetic trait is factored in. Without any DNA swab, the gen pop risk is already factored in to the underwriting as well.

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I’m well aware of how this works. I’m also aware family history doesn’t end up accounting for everything. There are also lots of people with dubious family history, etc that further complicates it.

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I don’t think DNA has evolved for automobiles.

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Oh nevermind, if a simple analogy is too hard I don’t really feel like wasting my time further.

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3. Infected and asymptomatic.

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This is the category that most confuses me. maybe all of you guys can answer this for me. (This is not a trick and I am not trying for a gotcha moment. I was talking to my wife about this yesterday, so I'm glad this was mentioned)

If they are infected but asymptomatic, how do we know they are infected? I mean....are we testing people that show no signs of infection when we are short on testing kits?

This group is one I can't wrap my head around.

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how do we know they are infected? I mean....are we testing people that show no signs of infection when we are short on testing kits?

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We don't and we aren't. That's our biggest problem right now.

Wishing a safe Passover to those celebrating.

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Deeprig believes that that most infected people are asymptomatic.

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I'd like to clarify- I believe:

Asymptomatic carriers + Symptomatic carriers who don't meet strict testing criteria = 90% of the infected.

I don't necessarily think 90% of carriers are asymptomatic. But we know, for a fact, many exist, and we do know, for a fact, it is damn hard to get a test in GA, even with symptoms.

I don't know how anyone could disagree with that.

Okay. Something just ocurred to me that is making me feel really, really dumb. (Epiphany!)

I have been assuming by asymptomatic to mean that people have no symptoms and will never show symptoms.

Could it be termed this way to mean people who have Covid19 at the moment but are not showing symptoms, but symptoms will show up a little later?

The answer was so obvious and simple and I just missed it.
I tend to overthink stuff sometimes. My apologies for derailing this for a stupid thing.

When a person gets infected there is a lag time before symptoms might appear so, for a while, those people are asymptomatic.

Eventually, symptoms will develop in one set of the infected.

There are apparently other infected people who never experience symptoms. I assume that eventually the bodies of infected people who are asymptomatic will kill the virus leaving antibodies to guard against future infections.

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Think of asymptomatic like gravity.

You cant see it.

But you know it is there by how it affects neighboring bodies (in this case: contagion spreading to new infected people).

Does that help?

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It does. I had forgotten that people could get infected and now show the symptoms. then they go and spread the virus before the symptoms begin to show up.

It was just a matter of my forgetting how Corona works in some people. Thanks!

But don't forget there are people that get the virus and never show any symptoms, ever, ever. Their bodies create antibodies super fast and nix it, before even the first cough. But they can still spread it while the virus is replicating inside of them and antibodies are building.