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re: Maybe Smart wasn't ready for a head coaching job

Posted on 11/3/16 at 7:58 am to
Posted by Peter Buck
Member since Sep 2012
12415 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 7:58 am to
Line traditionally has the biggest variance though. It takes some kids longer to grow into their bodies. The NFL has a lot of small college lineman compared to their spots. This year, Julian Devenport from Bucknell is an example. He had no stars.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27305 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:07 am to
More the a few O-linemen from the MAC in the NFL.Highly doubt any of them
were in the "top 300"
This post was edited on 11/3/16 at 8:16 am
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:14 am to
quote:

Mike Price and Dennis Erickson both had success at WSU...not easy but certainly not
impossible. What's kept him from winning big at Texas Tech? Baylor and TCU both
are comparable as far as access to recruits,facilities etc.


Do the math yourself:

Texas Tech has finished ranked 12 times in their history.
Texas Tech finished ranked 5 times in a 6 year period from 2004-2009 and hasn't finished ranked since then.

Wazzu was 9-40 in the 4 years prior to his arrival for an 18% winning %.
Wazzu is 15-6 in their past 21 games for a 71% winning %.

Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:18 am to
quote:

Lots of O-linemen from the MAC conference in the NFL.Highly doubt any of them
were in the "top 300"


Do the math yourself:

"About 25% five-star recruits like No. 1 pick Jameis Winston goes on to become a first-rounder, but only about 1% of three-star recruits like No. 2 Marcus Mariota does. "
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58952 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:31 am to
quote:

Lots of O-linemen from the MAC conference in the NFL.Highly doubt any of them
were in the "top 300"



Do the math yourself:

"About 25% five-star recruits like No. 1 pick Jameis Winston goes on to become a first-rounder, but only about 1% of three-star recruits like No. 2 Marcus Mariota does. "




In fairness, your statistic shows #1 picks, and he is talking about NFL players.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27305 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:34 am to
quote:

Wazzu was 9-40 in the 4 years prior to his arrival for an 18% winning %.
Wazzu is 15-6 in their past 21 games for a 71% winning %.


Jesus,AGAIN with the cherry picking of the numbers and OF COURSE only judge em
on his last 21 games when he's been there since '12. So he came behind a shitty
coach.WGAS? Point is,2 coaches proved you could be succesful there and you could
maybe call Erickson a great coach and not so sure about Price. Oh,BTW are you
including the Portland State and Eastern Washington games in his losses?
You think both those schools had more talent?

Texas Tech has finished ranked 12 times in their history.
Texas Tech finished ranked 5 times in a 6 year period from 2004-2009 and hasn't finished ranked since then. [/quote]

And his best team (2008) was beat by OU by 45 points and an above average Ole Miss
team by 2 TD's.

So why hasn't a "great coach" like Leach been offered a big time job?Plenty of openings
last year and the year before.


Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27305 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:38 am to
quote:

About 25% five-star recruits like No. 1 pick Jameis Winston goes on to become a first-rounder, but only about 1% of three-star recruits like No. 2 Marcus Mariota does. "


Never once did I say 5 star players don't have better NFL odds...OF course they do.
Just said it was idoitic to rank HS players into the 400's and 500's especailly
O-lineman.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:43 am to
quote:

Never once did I say 5 star players don't have better NFL odds...OF course they do.
Just said it was idoitic to rank HS players into the 400's and 500's especailly
O-lineman.


The math supports such rankings:



Its clearly not idiotic to give less talented recruits 2 or 3 stars.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:48 am to
quote:

GAIN with the cherry picking of the numbers and OF COURSE only judge em
on his last 21 games when he's been there since '12. So he came behind a shitty
coach.WGAS? Point is,2 coaches proved you could be succesful there and you could
maybe call Erickson a great coach and not so sure about Price. Oh,BTW are you
including the Portland State and Eastern Washington games in his losses?
You think both those schools had more talent?


The 18% is listed to prove just how bad the situation he walked into was. When you walk into a very very bad situation, its much tougher to win, and when you can turn that around, you have proven your worth as a coach. Any honest and educated CFB fan can acknowledge that, so I dont expect you to figure that out.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 8:55 am to
quote:

And his best team (2008) was beat by OU by 45 points and an above average Ole Miss
team by 2 TD's.

So why hasn't a "great coach" like Leach been offered a big time job?Plenty of openings
last year and the year before.


Do you not know anything about his persona? He is a lighting rod. Only desperate programs who have horrid histories take chances on lightning rods. Thats not a knock on coaching ability as you incorrectly assert.

No honest and educated CFB fan disregards the significance of an 83% ranked rate from 2004-2009 at a program that only finishes ranked 9% the rest of the time.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58952 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Its clearly not idiotic to give less talented recruits 2 or 3 stars.


No, it's not, but using your logic we should have better talent at WR and OL. We have recruited six 4* talent or above at the OL and six 4* talent or above at WR since 2014. Why are they not playing better?

Is it talent? Not according to you.
S&C? We got an ex Alabama guy there, and he worked out pretty good for them.
Coaching? About the only thing that is left.

People are all over the place with their arguments. Some want to go by stars, saying it is accurate, while saying our WR's and OLinemen are horrible. yet we have recruited $8 and above the last three years that can compare with pretty much anybody outside of Alabama in the SEC.

Take a look at Auburn, since they are a major rival.
They have recruited six WR's 4* or above and 5 OL 4* or above since 2014.

Florida has recruited four 4* WR's and two 4* (Or above) OL

So, either our players are in the wrong scheme, not being coached properly, or well...you tell us. I honestly don't know.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27305 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:08 am to
quote:

Do you not know anything about his persona


So are you saying he had better or worse personnel than Portland State and
Eastern Washington?

quote:

He is a lighting rod. Only desperate programs who have horrid histories take chances on lightning rods. Thats not a knock on coaching ability as you incorrectly assert.


So what?If he's a "great coach" and can win at a big time school why wouldn't you
offer him a job?How bout an asst job in the NFL?

Never said he wasn't a bad coach and is certainly better than our current shitshow
just don't think he's elite be any means and gets way too much credit for an offense
that was invented by Lavell Edwards almost 40 years ago.
This post was edited on 11/3/16 at 9:13 am
Posted by Peter Buck
Member since Sep 2012
12415 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:21 am to
I do not think you will see the same curve with lineman. I wouldn't argue a correlation between star ratings and success in College at Oline, but then we are talking about UGA having 3/4 and a few 5 star lineman, they are not taking any projects on per say. If you use star rankings, I think we have seen that they typically end up playing on average within the same level as players one star above or below. You have the occasional busts and 2 stars who are 1st draft picks. You tend to see more of those on the line.

I think when you start breaking out actual rankings of HS players, you just get too far outside the realm of the tangible. Especially when you look at things like matching up to schemes...
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:25 am to
quote:

No, it's not, but using your logic we should have better talent at WR and OL. Why are they not playing better?


Doing the math on the numbers I have provided for our Sr, Jr, and Soph classes.

Top 100: 4%
300 or below: 61%

Obviously, this kind of recruiting explains our play on the field and the future NFL drafts.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:30 am to
quote:

So are you saying he had better or worse personnel than Portland State and
Eastern Washington?


He has taken the worst Big 5 program at the time of his hire to the top 25 this week with his 2nd class of seniors. It takes more than "good" to pull that off. Again, the math just isn't on your side.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33092 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:34 am to
quote:

they are not taking any projects on per say.


I have never seen such a study on linemen only, so thats just an assumption on your part. My assumption is the curve would be relatively similar across the board.

55% failed projects in these 3 classes:

437 Sam Madden
450: DeVondre Seymour
453 Sage Hardin
525 Jake Edwards
537: Josh Cardiello
558 Aulden Bynum

The further out one gets, the further one gets from 4 stars and the closer one gets to 2 stars.
Posted by Peter Buck
Member since Sep 2012
12415 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:51 am to
This is a link from an article about the most difficult HS players to evaluate



1. Offensive linemen
Scarcity: Every offense is designed to involve at least five players from one of the world's smallest gene pools: the tall, heavy, and quick-footed.

Defensive linemen are often more athletic and sometimes similarly sized, but their responsibilities on the football field are considerably different. An offensive lineman has to have the agility to get in front of blitzing linebackers along with the powerful base necessary to stand his ground when facing a defensive tackle with an explosive first step and 310-pound frame.

Every offense is designed to involve at least five players from one of the world's smallest gene pools.
Work on the offensive line is generally very technical and involved, requiring the ability to learn and master skills. While defensive linemen needn't necessarily be the brightest players on the field to understand how they fit into a scheme, offensive linemen have to work carefully in tandem with great awareness of their pre-snap plan along with how that will change when the bullets start flying.

You also need a portion of nastiness. When the action gets heavy, it's helpful if the offensive linemen are scrappers who like to intimidate the smaller defenders paired across from them.

The huge, powerful, tall, quick, crafty, and cruel athlete is not one of the more common varieties. And he'll probably need long arms and a wide butt, too.

NO. 1 OFFENSIVE LINEMAN
Cameron Robinson, Alabama commit
Evaluation: Most offensive linemen are not 6'5, 300 pounds coming out of high school. Among 2014's 25 blue-chip tackles on the 247Sports Composite, only 10 are already listed at 300, and lesser prospects are likely to be smaller.

That means projecting the future frames of 16- to 18-year-olds and those players' willingness to pack on the needed weight and power (if that sounds easy, consider that 2013 No. 1 NFL Draft pick Eric Fisher gained 70 pounds in college after weighing 250 as a two-star prospect). And that takes time. The instances of freshmen starting on offensive lines are particularly rare, as a good line is usually built with upperclassmen. Coaches hope most linemen will emerge ready to contribute after two or three years in the program.

Like on the defensive line, it's not uncommon to find players with necessary size who were happy to bully smaller players in high school, but less wiling to embrace the massive amount of discipline, energy commitment, and threshold for pain necessary to find success. Much like Andrew Bynum on the hardwood, some kids play football in high school because they are 6'4, 280 pounds and it comes easily, not because they particularly love the game. Coaches have to be able to tell the difference.

Other kids struggle to keep on the needed weight to withstand power rush moves or drive back determined defenders. In addition to training, class, film, and games, linemen have to eat about 5,000 calories per day. If they suffer injuries, it can be hard to keep the needed weight on while rehabbing. Injuries are not at all uncommon for offensive linemen who have to navigate both the chaos in the trenches along with the risks that come from their own girth. It's simply very hard to be both a healthy person and a 300-pounder.

Evaluating kids for injury risk, the willingness to face hard coaching and challenging scenarios, and the ability to master the techniques and assignments on the line with rebuilt bodies is one of the more challenging tasks in recruiting. Given how few of these massive kids with truly exceptional athleticism exist, offensive line is the most challenging position to recruit.

As you watch and hope for your team to snag that prize, five-star running back, keep in mind the real prizes in a recruiting class. The ones that don't come so easily.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58952 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Top 100: 4%
300 or below: 61%



I assume this is in relation to the entire class?

Here are the numbers I cam up with compared to our two biggest rivals in the SEC. (Auburn and Florida)

FLA
WR:
33
127
164
131

OL:
2
112

AU
WR:
44
72
122
141
188

OL:
222
230
271
335
63
(I eliminated one of their WR's because he was a Junior College transfer)

Georgia
WR:
134
234
28
245
294
307

OL:
92
213
109
227
259

This is base upon 247 Composite. I counted Godwin with our WR's and used their ranking in overall and no positional. It might be more telling to see where all the guys shake out positionally, but I really didn't come here to argue or push any points.

Not even sure why I got in the conversation. I really do believe with time Smart will prove to be a good coach. But all any of us have is opinion. We don't know and won't know for 2-3 more years, and we should give him that time. I don't much buy into the argument that Richt left us in bad shape. We have as much talent, or more than many of the teams we are struggling with, or have beaten us. Yes, even across the OL. It's a matter, in my opinion, of the OL not progressing, for some reason. Whether it was previous coaching, lack of drive on the players part....I don't know. And, it really doesn't matter, at this point. It is what it is, and we have to move on from here and hopefully get better.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27305 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:57 am to
quote:

He has taken the worst Big 5 program at the time of his hire to the top 25 this week with his 2nd class of seniors. It takes more than "good" t


And the same could be said for Bill Curry at GT or Franklin at Vandy. Both "great coaches"
right?I believe both those guys did it with their 1st sr class...not sure.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58952 posts
Posted on 11/3/16 at 9:59 am to
There is not question that the OL is one of the hardest positions to project and to play. Anybody that would argue this point is just wrong. I am surprised at the number of people on this board that think an OLineman just goes after whoever is in front of them and it is strength against strength.
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