re: What is your Realistic Timeline for a Coaching Change?

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This is what is wrong with a lot of our fanbase

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I think the biggest problem isn't our attitude, but a contract (from a now fired AD) that guaranteed all his buyout money within 60 days (instead of payment over years most buyouts have).

I supported the shite out of that extension when we did it, as I didn't want to look like a stepping stone plus I didn't want to hire a coach the same cycle as Texas (and presumably get a worse one on paper). But now that same buyout is our handcuffs.

For a program like ours it isn't good enough to spend a lot, build a lot and fill the stadium. You also have to get lucky and we never do.

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This is what is wrong with a lot of our fanbase

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Yes. It's the fanbase who is getting those Wins and Loses. The fanbase is also the ones who call the shots when it comes to hiring/firing coaches and payi.....err recruiting players.


. You may want to take a step back and breathe.

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With the exception of Homer Norton, each one of these coaches won either a conference or national title before year 5 (Norton won both in year 6).

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This is year 5 for us. This is Saban's 4th West title only interrupted by a string of horseshoes flying out of Malzahn's arse. My point: judging an SECW coach on conference titles over the last 5 years is fairly shallow thinking, to be polite.

That doesn't mean Sumlin shouldn't be judged but let's use a metric that is actually meaningful instead of some frivilous concept of comparing vs a 7 team SWC when (3 or more of the teams don't bother to even try) . Have an opinion. State your opinion. It's unnecessary to be intellectually dishonest is expressing it because winning an internet warrior battle isn't gonna win you a teddy bear.

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Kevin Sumlin will likely be the only coach in A&M history with at least 6 seasons to fail to win a conference or a national title.

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I haven't looked at it in a while but I believe Bama is something like 35-4 in conference games since we joined and no one else in the West is above 3 games over .500. I think its us that is 2nd too but everyone hovers around .500 except Arky. Everyone has to play everyone else and we all lose to Bama.

This is big boy football and there are only two kinds of coaches: legends and guys that are gonna get fired. Sometimes a guy can fit in both categories eventually (Bowden, Mack, Miles). But it's fairly likely everyone in the West save Saban will eventually be fired. Because that's how this shite works.

And it isn't because they aren't good coaches, but because expectations for every school in the West is for top 10 finishes and occasional conference titles (except State but Mullen is still wearing out his welcome). As long as Saban sucks up all the oxygen, no one is going to consistently meet those expectations.

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This is year 5 for us. This is Saban's 4th West title only interrupted by a string of horseshoes flying out of Malzahn's arse. My point: judging an SECW coach on conference titles over the last 5 years is fairly shallow thinking, to be polite.

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Winning the west is difficult. But not only are we not winning, we're not even competing on a year-to-year basis

2013 - 3 games back of SECW champ
2014 - 4 games back of SECW champ
2015 - 3 games back of SECW champ
2016 - 3 or 4 games back of SECW champ

If we have to accept that Sumlin is incapable of putting together a team that can win the West, can we at least expect him to be 2nd best every now and then?

but you are conveniently leaving out that we finished a game back in 2012. It's like that year didn't exist.

So

2012 - LSU /A&M
2013 Auburn
2014 State
2015 OM
2016 no one

It is what it is. He's the GOAT.

But over our 5 years, everyone but Arky has done it exactly once. And IIRC, everyone has finished in the top 10 exactly once. It is not and hasn't been Bama and 5 easy wins.

Any discussion of coach performance has to begin here if we are to be intellectually honest.

That doesn't mean it's good enough. But if you are going to hold a strong opinion, it should be based upon reality. I think many are flat lying to themselves because of emotion.

What would be success over the last five years? (and you have to honestly recognize where we were 5 years ago)

Over the next 5? If the answer (assuming Saban doesn't retire) is to win multiple SEC titles, you're just being delusional. Now don't get me wrong, most on fan sites are (and I mean that in a nice way), but way too many are setting themselves up for a situation where anything short of perfection and their lives are ruined. But I guess it's just the age we live in

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2012 happened, although I find it harder and harder with each passing year to credit Sumlin for that team. The toughness, the fight has disappeared under his watch.

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For all the physical tools that JFF brought to the field, maybe his greatest attribute IMHO was his refusal to lose and his ability to get us teammates to buy in. The 2012 team believed they would win and in moments that seemed out of reach, Manziel would pull the team aside and motivate them to dig a little deeper.

We haven't had that level of leadership until TK. Idk how you cultivate that as a CEO or I'd be rich AF. But I feel like that's something that Sumlin and staff don't do enough of or we wouldn't lose games we're supposed to win.

2012 happened. That's the best argument in favor of Sumlin.

Then again 2011 was preseason #8, and 11-1 at halftime or whatever. all those guys came back except tannehill, and our two best scout team players were as advertised. What was sumlins contribution? Letting them play loose? Changing the strength and conditioning? He's taken a well built albeit thin Sherman roster and successfully made it worse with better recruits.

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Expecting us to be finishing second in the west at least a year or two and winning 9-10 games. I don't think anyone here who is realistic expects us to be topping Bama right now. But another 8-4 season is very disappointing if we don't win Thursday. We should at least be in that second spot behind Bama once or twice with a Sugar Bowl appearance to show for it by this point. The fact that Ole Miss and MSU will have NY6 bowl appearances in this five year span and we most likely will not is unacceptable I think.

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Not to mention we're one of like 5 teams to have over 50% blue-chips on the roster the last few years. That's about as objective as it gets.

So yeah, expecting to unseat bama would be unreasonable, but what are reasonable expectations for a top 5 recruited roster?

What are reasonable expectations for a top 5 paid coach/staff?

What are reasonable expectations for recruiting when we built top 5 facilities?

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Next year is likely a decision year. You either fire him or extend him. There's not much middle ground.

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Annnnnd he's going to be fired unless he lands Stidham and the kid just sets the world on fire. So most likely: fired. I don't think it'll really be much of a decision. He should be fired this year, but won't because it doesn't make sense due to the fiscal liabilities created by the buyouts.