SEC Network, the thread

Here's the article that caught my interest: New Dish deal could spark cord-cutting

Apparently, Dish is looking into options to sell the Disney suite of web channels as a stand alone offering. That would be huge because if you could get WatchESPN and ESPN3 (as well as SECN3 or whatever) I'm not sure I'd care if I had cable at all.

Couple of notes about the SECN. If I have time I'll try to napkin out the financials but here's what we know

- The base fee they are after is $1.30 in-market and $0.25 out of market.

BTN Numbers ( LINK)
- $1.00 in market. The avg rate is $0.41
- approximately 52m subscribers, 20m in footprint.
- $0.05 out of market (calculated)
- $0.41 * 52m * 12 = $255m annually in subscriber fees
- The BTN distributed $8.1m per school last year @12 schools = 97.2m. The BTN owns 50% so the network made about $200m

ESPN has publicly targeted about 75m subscribers. But what we know so far - ATT and Dish have approximately 20m subscribers. But in both cases, SECN is on the basic tier meaning it's in every package so that 20m is actually 20m (not sure about Uverse but BTN is not on basic for Dish)

Assuming the rates are correct then and assuming a split of 7m in market and 13m out of market
- (7m * 1.3 + 13m * 0.25) * 12 = 148m

Obviously this ignores advertising and digital rates. Too early to say on that, but just assuming those match the BTN, the Dish deal has made the entire thing profitable on day one.

ETA: Some more BTN info
- Net advertising revenue also increased last year to $30.1 million (2011) LINK
- still unsure on the BTN2GO rights fees

I've got Uverse and I have BTN I think its because I picked up another level of subscription.

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If Time Warner and Comcast both picked up the PAC 12 network and Big Ten network as sports tier in out of market areas, then they'll get the SEC Network.

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honestly I don't think the SEC wants it to be that easy. If it is then you are probably leaving money on the table. But PAC is not really the competition. The PAC doesn't have anywhere near the demand in market that the SEC or B1G does.

The Dish deal gives the SEC a ton of leverage since just about anyone can get Dish. So if TWC agreed but only to Sports Tier, I think ESPN/SEC may push back. There's no reason to cave right now unless they get it all. I wouldn't even be surprised if they told them this is the basic rate (1.30/0.25) and sports tier rate would be higher.

Btw, the LHN numbers are not particularly relevant. It's not a comparable product and I would venture to guess they've dropped their rates to get carriage. I've not seen anything on any of their recent deals. I'm sure ESPN is doing their best to keep it out of the news so discounted rates aren't used against them in the next negotiation.

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I've got Uverse and I have BTN I think its because I picked up another level of subscription.

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yeah I have FIOS and thought the basic package included BTN but just looked it up and it's in the next one up from basic. I have no idea which one I'm on

Honestly success will be defined by whether it's better or worse than the BTN. The B1G and SEC are the two power conferences and right now the BTN is the model everyone else is copying

They do quite well with hockey as well. I think the conference networks have a ton more potential than what we've seen. I really think the secondary sports could build followings over time as it is easily accessible for the first time.

Have a good friend that plays hockey and he has started following college hockey via the BTN. I think both college baseball and college softball could do the same the way the Cubs or Braves built a national following in the 80s. It's one reason I really hope the SEC pushes for men's soccer and lacrosse soon.

I think it's a reasonable shot because it would be good for TV but Title IX holds it back some. The great thing though is if you have the ships, men's soccer is a relatively cheap add for everyone as we all already play women's. I imagine most of the SEC sport adds from here will be based on tv appeal.

Somewhat on that note, Stanford raised money to endow each of their smaller sports so they compete in everything. I saw where Patterson at tu was going to try to model after them. Given how competitive we are (our BMDs especially), I'll be a little surprised if we don't follow suit.

don't think it will be a baby step. Live programming, ie sports, is about all that is keeping people in cable these days. DirecTV appears to also be in talks with Disney for Internet rights. They may be next to get on board with the SEC Network.

Still think there's a case to monetize CBB long term.