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Scoring Analysis (A&M vs. Alabama)
Posted on 10/13/14 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 10/13/14 at 3:09 pm
The model was off badly last week. It predicted both teams scoring between 27-30 and it seemed the margin of error was 5-7.
That being said, I used SEC only stats this week as a 2nd model...and it drastically fricked things up, making it even more confusing. I don't think we can predict anything right now.
Overall, A&M scores 14.6 ppg more than its opponents allow (7.3 ppg in SEC play) and allows 9.2 ppg fewer than its opponents score (0.6 ppg in SEC play).
Alabama scores 7 ppg more than its opponents allow (0.4 ppg FEWER in SEC play) and allows 15.3 fewer than its opponents score (10.2 in SEC play)
Running the numbers:
A&M model
All games: A&M 30, Alabama 24
SEC only: A&M 26, Alabama 24
Alabama model
All games: Alabama 30, A&M 29
SEC only: Alabama 34, A&M 24
Based on this, A&M scores between 26-30 and Alabama scores between 24-34. Too close to call, but I'm picking Alabama.
Projecting over the rest of the season
A&M 43, ULM 8 (WIN)
A&M 33, Auburn 30/Auburn 36, A&M 29 (Tossup?)
A&M 37, Missouri 20/A&M 34, Missouri 10 (WIN)
A&M 34, LSU 26/A&M 41, LSU 21
(WIN)
That pretty much spells out 8-4.
Going back and running last week's game with just the previous SEC numbers predicted 35-17 Ole Miss.
That being said, I used SEC only stats this week as a 2nd model...and it drastically fricked things up, making it even more confusing. I don't think we can predict anything right now.
Overall, A&M scores 14.6 ppg more than its opponents allow (7.3 ppg in SEC play) and allows 9.2 ppg fewer than its opponents score (0.6 ppg in SEC play).
Alabama scores 7 ppg more than its opponents allow (0.4 ppg FEWER in SEC play) and allows 15.3 fewer than its opponents score (10.2 in SEC play)
Running the numbers:
A&M model
All games: A&M 30, Alabama 24
SEC only: A&M 26, Alabama 24
Alabama model
All games: Alabama 30, A&M 29
SEC only: Alabama 34, A&M 24
Based on this, A&M scores between 26-30 and Alabama scores between 24-34. Too close to call, but I'm picking Alabama.
Projecting over the rest of the season
A&M 43, ULM 8 (WIN)
A&M 33, Auburn 30/Auburn 36, A&M 29 (Tossup?)
A&M 37, Missouri 20/A&M 34, Missouri 10 (WIN)
A&M 34, LSU 26/A&M 41, LSU 21
(WIN) That pretty much spells out 8-4.
Going back and running last week's game with just the previous SEC numbers predicted 35-17 Ole Miss.
This post was edited on 10/13/14 at 3:14 pm
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Posted on 10/13/14 at 3:11 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
That pretty much spells out 8-4.
That's what I'm projecting now too, and if you had told me we'd be 8-4 before the season started I'd say that's better than I would have guessed. Yet the world is still melting for some
Posted on 10/13/14 at 3:14 pm to Projectpat
I'm pretty sure NO ONE had picked 8-4 with losses to both Mississippi schools though.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 3:26 pm to Projectpat
I predicted 8-4, but that included losses to south carolina and lsu at the start of the season, and victories against both landmass schools.
now, south carolina is a win and lsu is a win that I am expecting.
Long story short, I dont know what the frick to expect anymore
now, south carolina is a win and lsu is a win that I am expecting.
Long story short, I dont know what the frick to expect anymore
Posted on 10/13/14 at 4:26 pm to Houston Summit
This is why none of us have jobs collecting Intel for sportsbooks in Las Vegas casinos.
I didn't see us losing to Ole Miss, maybe to Mississippi State but I had us 9-3, myself.
Fwiw, I think honestly the Alabama game will be closer than people are giving us credit for. For once they don't run a zone read/spread option scheme which is our achilles heel. And Blake Sims is an average quarterback. But they're still Alabama, and a Derrick Henry vs Jordan Mastrogiovanni battle.... well maybe Henry will trip over his own feet
I didn't see us losing to Ole Miss, maybe to Mississippi State but I had us 9-3, myself.
Fwiw, I think honestly the Alabama game will be closer than people are giving us credit for. For once they don't run a zone read/spread option scheme which is our achilles heel. And Blake Sims is an average quarterback. But they're still Alabama, and a Derrick Henry vs Jordan Mastrogiovanni battle.... well maybe Henry will trip over his own feet
Posted on 10/13/14 at 4:28 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:THIS
I'm pretty sure NO ONE had picked 8-4 with losses to both Mississippi schools though.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 5:52 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
8-4 will make me one happy panda
shouldn't loose out on recruits because of a poor season, should get a decent bowl game, and should be able to translate it to a quality 2015
shouldn't loose out on recruits because of a poor season, should get a decent bowl game, and should be able to translate it to a quality 2015
Posted on 10/13/14 at 6:03 pm to Projectpat
I'd take 8-4 and be effing happy with it at this point
Posted on 10/13/14 at 7:39 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
CGSC thread count during/after Ole Miss game: 10
Posted on 10/13/14 at 9:14 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I just don't see 8-4. We're 6-6, 7-5 if we get a lucky break. I'm not exactly happy with that on any year, especially a 3rd year in. I'm not melting, just being realistic as to how this team has played the past few games.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 9:24 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
That pretty much spells out 8-4.
SEC games
2012: 6-2 losses to Florida and LSU
2013: 4-4 losses to Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Missouri
2014: 4-4 losses to Mississippi and Miss State (likely Alabama and Auburn)
Total: 14-10 (.588)
If we win when we are supposed to and lose to who we are supposed to this is how our first 3 years in the SEC pan out. That's probably as good as I had hoped for the first 3 years in conference, but I would have felt better if the records of '12 and '14 had switched and I could see progress. I think we were all prepared for a poor start, then JFF happened so our expectations shot up. Just like the SCar game, we had prepared for a tough year and then got false hope.
We had a good transition into the SEC, just not in a predicted fashion. I'm hoping the next 3 years are better.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 9:55 pm to WhiskerBiscuitSlayer
This is an Alabama game thread, mouth breather. You are clearly our version of goldennugget.
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