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re: 2018 Fightin Texas Aggie Baseball
Posted on 6/4/18 at 2:15 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Posted on 6/4/18 at 2:15 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
If it were easy then why is our streak of 12 good for 3rd (I think) longest active streak. The schools you put above us, TCU, is fresh on off no postseason. tu missed the postseason 12, 13, and 16. Could you imagine only going 2x in a 5 year stretch? Tech is having a nice run, but from 04-13 they went 0fer for even making it into a regional.
I agree we need to do better. I hate never making a true run at the title. I just fully believe there is a lot of risk moving on from RC. USC was fresh off of 2 titles, their HC took the AD job, and hired his replacement. They fell on their face.
I agree we need to do better. I hate never making a true run at the title. I just fully believe there is a lot of risk moving on from RC. USC was fresh off of 2 titles, their HC took the AD job, and hired his replacement. They fell on their face.
2
Posted on 6/4/18 at 2:41 pm to Farmer1906
There is risk, but RC has also never had a run like TCU did the last 4 years or Texas did from 08-11. That makes a year or multiple years with no postseason much easier to handle. And the momentum arrow for Texas is pointing squarely up, Pierce is an excellent coach. Tech is historically bad baseball program that found an excellent coach in Tadlock and are really rolling. We would never fall to a level like they had before him even in the worst case scenario.
For whatever reason I just don’t think RC has been able to tap into our upside as much as he should. Aside from the postseason struggles I believe we only have the 1 National seed under him in 16. We have a good program but haven’t been able to break through to elite, which I fully believe we can do. If it’s another 2 or 3 seed type year and out in a regional next year then I think we should really look at making a move.
For whatever reason I just don’t think RC has been able to tap into our upside as much as he should. Aside from the postseason struggles I believe we only have the 1 National seed under him in 16. We have a good program but haven’t been able to break through to elite, which I fully believe we can do. If it’s another 2 or 3 seed type year and out in a regional next year then I think we should really look at making a move.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 3:25 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
I can agree with that.
RC may only have 1 national seed but could argue we should have gotten another 1 or 2. Not that it matters all that much.
RC may only have 1 national seed but could argue we should have gotten another 1 or 2. Not that it matters all that much.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 3:42 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
For whatever reason I just don’t think RC has been able to tap into our upside as much as he should.
recruiting has always been his biggest weakness IMO. RC is supposedly a pretty difficult coach to play for. old friend of mine talked to a HS coach years ago (when deggs was still an asst) and he was told that A&M is where hitters go to die.
i remember reading a blurb in texas monthly that same year about how houston was the #1 metro area in the US for HS baseball talent.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 3:46 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
I've heard the same about RC behind a tough guy to play for. I will say whatever he does with his pitchers, it works. He seems to have a knack always having deep quality staffs even if they're not the most likely recruited. I also think RC does a good job of letting his assistants take charge of the offense. Bolt has done a nice job for the most part.
He does need to improve his recruiting. Its tricky in college baseball because you can get commits from the best guys and lose them to the draft. You also are only working with 11 schollies and change.
He does need to improve his recruiting. Its tricky in college baseball because you can get commits from the best guys and lose them to the draft. You also are only working with 11 schollies and change.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 4:39 pm to Farmer1906
He is definitely a great pitching coach.
I had friends who were recruited by him, some with some pretty deep ties to A&M and wanted to go there, who did not get a great feel for him during the process and ended up at places like Rice and TCU. Overall I feel like we have deep teams under him that sometimes lack the really high end talent (aside from the Wacha/Strip/Naquin squad)
I had friends who were recruited by him, some with some pretty deep ties to A&M and wanted to go there, who did not get a great feel for him during the process and ended up at places like Rice and TCU. Overall I feel like we have deep teams under him that sometimes lack the really high end talent (aside from the Wacha/Strip/Naquin squad)
Posted on 6/4/18 at 6:05 pm to Farmer1906
I made the same post in the past (2013 maybe?). But what are our realistic expectations for our program?
Mine would be:(judging over a 4 year cycle as anything shorter has too much variance)
Make the tournament virtually every year. We could certainly have a slip up. It's just the nature of the beast but it should be extremely rare and probably have extenuating circumstances (injuries to a front line starter). We've had some years that have been too close for comfort but all in all, I think RC cleanly passes this.
Host 2 of 4 years. We're a top program. This should be our expectation. Being on the road is going to happen, but we should be close to hosting virtually ever year. Years like this one can make that difficult as it looks like the SEC is going to win 8 regionals with only 4 host spots. The committee clearly screwed Auburn and Kentucky and has in the past done so to others, justifying it with the idea that certain conferences should only have X National Seeds, Y hosts, or Z teams. They do this while ignoring the obvious fact that the SEC has been head and shoulders above everyone for a while now, not only in the regular season but in the post-season as well. RC has got us a host spot 6 of the last 12 years so he's meeting this expectation.
Win a regional 2 out of 4 years. Again, over the last 12 years we've won 6 regionals (1 time failing as host - 2012, one time winning on the road - 2017). Again, meeting expectations.
Advance to CWS 1 out of 4 years. If we advance to a Super 1/2 the time, it's reasonable to win 50% of those. Over the last 12 years, A&M is 2-4 in Supers (beating FSU in 11 and Davidson in 17 while losing to Rice in 07,08 and TCU in 15,16). This is below expectations but honestly, it's a brain fart ground ball away from 3-3.
CWS - on average, when appearing, win 2 games. RC is 0-4 in his CWS appearances. Not much else to say.
So the problem is at the top end. It's frustrating. But it's a bit how baseball goes unfortunately. Teams shouldn't be defined by 1-game. It's a long season and 1 bad or good outing can mean all the difference. I doubt anyone would say Chafin is a bad pitcher. But one bad inning and our season was done.
I have my issues with Chlidress. I think he over manages in big games and creates a tense environment that overwhelms the players in tough moments. We always seem to tighten up in big games under him. And bc of this, I have concerns he'll never get over the hump. I think his scheduling has cost us a couple of national seeds (and maybe a host spot in years like this one). And I don't think it prepares us for league play. All that without mention he's a first class prick (imho).
But a discussion about his job right now is silly. Over the last 4 years, we've been to the CWS and 3 Supers. We've spent large portions of a couple of those seasons ranked in the top 2. I have complaints. I think we all do. But simmer down.
Mine would be:(judging over a 4 year cycle as anything shorter has too much variance)
Make the tournament virtually every year. We could certainly have a slip up. It's just the nature of the beast but it should be extremely rare and probably have extenuating circumstances (injuries to a front line starter). We've had some years that have been too close for comfort but all in all, I think RC cleanly passes this.
Host 2 of 4 years. We're a top program. This should be our expectation. Being on the road is going to happen, but we should be close to hosting virtually ever year. Years like this one can make that difficult as it looks like the SEC is going to win 8 regionals with only 4 host spots. The committee clearly screwed Auburn and Kentucky and has in the past done so to others, justifying it with the idea that certain conferences should only have X National Seeds, Y hosts, or Z teams. They do this while ignoring the obvious fact that the SEC has been head and shoulders above everyone for a while now, not only in the regular season but in the post-season as well. RC has got us a host spot 6 of the last 12 years so he's meeting this expectation.
Win a regional 2 out of 4 years. Again, over the last 12 years we've won 6 regionals (1 time failing as host - 2012, one time winning on the road - 2017). Again, meeting expectations.
Advance to CWS 1 out of 4 years. If we advance to a Super 1/2 the time, it's reasonable to win 50% of those. Over the last 12 years, A&M is 2-4 in Supers (beating FSU in 11 and Davidson in 17 while losing to Rice in 07,08 and TCU in 15,16). This is below expectations but honestly, it's a brain fart ground ball away from 3-3.
CWS - on average, when appearing, win 2 games. RC is 0-4 in his CWS appearances. Not much else to say.
So the problem is at the top end. It's frustrating. But it's a bit how baseball goes unfortunately. Teams shouldn't be defined by 1-game. It's a long season and 1 bad or good outing can mean all the difference. I doubt anyone would say Chafin is a bad pitcher. But one bad inning and our season was done.
I have my issues with Chlidress. I think he over manages in big games and creates a tense environment that overwhelms the players in tough moments. We always seem to tighten up in big games under him. And bc of this, I have concerns he'll never get over the hump. I think his scheduling has cost us a couple of national seeds (and maybe a host spot in years like this one). And I don't think it prepares us for league play. All that without mention he's a first class prick (imho).
But a discussion about his job right now is silly. Over the last 4 years, we've been to the CWS and 3 Supers. We've spent large portions of a couple of those seasons ranked in the top 2. I have complaints. I think we all do. But simmer down.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 6:24 pm to tmc94
Until Basketball is dealt with, I don't think anything will happen to Childress.
Hopefully Woodward is still the AD by that point.
Hopefully Woodward is still the AD by that point.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 6:39 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
ack the really high end talent (aside from the Wacha/Strip/Naquin squad)
this is more a testament to how he develops players. none of those guys got much interest in HS. i dont even think wacha was drafted.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 6:49 pm to tmc94
quote:
creates a tense environment that overwhelms the players in tough moments. We always seem to tighten up in big games under him. And bc of this, I have concerns he'll never get over the hump
agree. we havent had a UNC-like moment like our hoops team just had unless you count FSU in 2011, who we really just outclassed with wacha/strip.
quote:
I think his scheduling has cost us a couple of national seeds (and maybe a host spot in years like this one). And I don't think it prepares us for league play.
i used to feel this way but after seeing kentucky get screwed this year, im not sure what the point of putting together a tough OOC schedule is when you have to run the gauntlet of the SEC.
quote:
All that without mention he's a first class prick (imho)
never met the guy but thats pretty much how everyone ive talked to has described him. i actually like that about him, other than the fact that its cost us some recruits.
Posted on 6/4/18 at 10:11 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
quote:
i used to feel this way but after seeing kentucky get screwed this year, im not sure what the point of putting together a tough OOC schedule is when you have to run the gauntlet of the SEC.
Don't mean to dwell too much on scheduling, but it isn't rocket science to game this system a bit. Not all bad teams are the same. And we schedule some real dregs for weekend series. I don't mind playing an Ivy, but do we have to also play Rhode Island, Bowling Green, and Hofstra?
But to your point, you are right. Bubble years - years like 2013 and 2018 - those wins may avoid getting kentucky'd. But the worse RPI in our elite years - years like 2011 and 2015 - cost us national seeds and being home for the Supers.
And to me, better chances in our elite years is what I want. That's how you get to Omaha. And I'm willing to make that trade off for missing the tournament once a decade in a year we would have been a 3-seed. (And I think as a team we will be better prepared for SEC play by kicking up the competition a bit earlier).
Posted on 6/5/18 at 12:26 am to tmc94
2015, i'll give you that. but we didnt get the natty seed in 2011 cause we lost the head to head against the sips and that was again (to my point) when we were in a weak conference. they reportedly took into consieration that john stilson wasn't available as well.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 7:31 am to Uncle Gunnysack
Our RPI was 9 on selection day (maybe 10 bc I think they picked before B12 title game), split the B12 regular season and dropped the h2h with the sips on the final weekend. We were borderline national seeds, with or without JS. And the B12 was not a weak conference at that time.
We started that year with 6 of 9 vs 200+ RPI and had 1 road OOC game all year (@ Rice) and 25 at home. Hell, had the first weekend series vs LeMoyne been rained out, we probably close the year at a 6-7 RPI and would have been a shoe in national seed.
We started that year with 6 of 9 vs 200+ RPI and had 1 road OOC game all year (@ Rice) and 25 at home. Hell, had the first weekend series vs LeMoyne been rained out, we probably close the year at a 6-7 RPI and would have been a shoe in national seed.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 8:34 am to tmc94
I understand why they don’t do road games as much because they’re trying to make a little money with more home games. It also provides for access thanks to SECN+. We only seem to do it with Rice, Houston, & tu for a most part. Sometimes we will travel to a UTA, Tx St, or Sam. That and the early season tourney & west coast trip every other year. I don’t see RC changing too much. He definitely improved it from 16 to 17.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 9:31 am to Farmer1906
I'm moving on from RC for now. It kind of is what it is. He's a good coach. Probably not great. Very very unlikely he's going anywhere.
Let's talk some draft.
Mitchelle Kilkenny was selected 76th overall by the Rockies. That is a hell of a lot higher than I expected, but congrats to him. I fully expect him not to report based on this selection.
Highly rated Aggie commits Grayson Rodriguez & Noah Naylor were selected very early. 11th & 29th. Baring something very very unforeseen they'll never wear the maroon & white.
That leaves Hellman, Andritsos, Hoffman, & Kolek as guys to pay attention to on the roster.
As for recruits LHP Jonathan Childress, RHP Mason Englert, RHP Brandon Birdsel, & LHP Joseph Menefee are all guys to keep an eye on. Childes & Englert are borderline top 100 types out of HS while Birdsel & Menefee are top 250 types.
Let's talk some draft.
Mitchelle Kilkenny was selected 76th overall by the Rockies. That is a hell of a lot higher than I expected, but congrats to him. I fully expect him not to report based on this selection.
Highly rated Aggie commits Grayson Rodriguez & Noah Naylor were selected very early. 11th & 29th. Baring something very very unforeseen they'll never wear the maroon & white.
That leaves Hellman, Andritsos, Hoffman, & Kolek as guys to pay attention to on the roster.
As for recruits LHP Jonathan Childress, RHP Mason Englert, RHP Brandon Birdsel, & LHP Joseph Menefee are all guys to keep an eye on. Childes & Englert are borderline top 100 types out of HS while Birdsel & Menefee are top 250 types.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 12:12 pm to Farmer1906
Next year's rotation is going to be interesting. Kolek's poor form down the stretch may cost him and so I wouldn't be totally surprised if he comes back.
But Dox, Lacy and Jozwiak is a lefty rotation we haven't seen since what...93? All 3 have great stuff but need to make a step forward (particularly consistency).
But Dox, Lacy and Jozwiak is a lefty rotation we haven't seen since what...93? All 3 have great stuff but need to make a step forward (particularly consistency).
Posted on 6/5/18 at 1:34 pm to tmc94
Dox took a big jump from 17 to 16, especially at the end of the year. I can see some parallels to Joz. He may do the same. Lacy was kind fo stuck behind Chafin & Joz ad far as opportunities. He did look good in Hoover though. I am really interested in Conlon's development. He's obviously talented, but apparently not ready at this point. I feel like we have a lot of underclassmen pitchers that need a better look and potentially some really good freshmen coming in. I think pitching stays a strength for next year.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 1:57 pm to Farmer1906
From Gabe
quote:
A&M RHP Nolan Hoffman goes to the Mariners in the 5th round (No. 148). He gone. Been fun watching him. The Hoff was A&M's best player in 2018.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 1:59 pm to Farmer1906
From Gabe & Hop
So that aint looking good either.
quote:
Forney RHP Mason Englert just went to the Rangers, his hometown team, in the 4th round (No. 119 overall). This one will be interesting to watch. Slot is around $465,000 but it'll take much more than that to land him. Although the Rangers will likely try to go as high as it'll take to get him.
quote:
The Rangers wouldn't have drafted him that high if they didn't get some assurances in advance that he would sign at $xxx,xxx amount.
So that aint looking good either.
Posted on 6/5/18 at 2:14 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Forney RHP Mason Englert just went to the Rangers, his hometown team, in the 4th round (No. 119 overall).
at calling the Rangers his hometown team when he's from Forney. That would be like saying the Mavs are a dude's hometown team when he lives in Sherman.
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