re: Who wins the SC v. UGA game and why?

SC



Connor Shaw is an under-rated quarterback, he doesn't get attention because of Johnny and McCarron and Murray. But he's damn good.

Shaq Roland is a great receiver.

Connor and Shaq will connect for at least 1 touchdown.

Having said that, Mike Davis is over-rated. He had one good week against UNC, and now everyone has heard of him. Many of you don't realize he was Lattimore's backup last year. After Lattimore went down, Davis got almost all the carries. He finished the season with a respectable 5 ypc, but he isn't the 6 ypc guy that Yeldon, Hill, Gurley, Latti, and even Marshall are. He's a solid back, but he's not a game-changer. Most SEC running backs are pretty good. There's a difference between Good and Special.

The only thing going for Mike Davis is that Grantham's defense occassionally manages to make Good backs look Great.

SC's defense is more than just Clowney. Sutton is the other DE, and he is as good of a DE as you can get, except for Clowney.

Quarles plays tackle, he stays low and is quick on his feet, does all the fundamental things very well, he wraps up the run very well at the line of scrimmage and breaks the fingers of offensive lineman that try to pass block him. He's the quintessential under-rated defensive tackle.. the guy that wears down the OL play after play with pure aggression and strength.

SC's linebackers and secondary are average, nothing noteworthy about them, they don't suck, they aren't spectacular either.


UGA



Aaron Murray is a bad arse quarterback. Only a badass can throw for 323 yards against a top ten team on the road for the season opener, lead an offense to score 35 points, and then have his fans demand he be benched and the offensive coordinator fired, and the horse he rode in on. Why does that make you a badass? Because the fans expect more. They want 450 yards, because they know you are fully capable of it. And he is. He just needs protection.

Segue..

Offensive line play was a little sloppy against Clemson. The left tackle tripped on one play and gave the rusher a running charge on Murray. There were other examples. This has to get better against SC's defensive line.

This starts with fullback Quayvon Hicks in the formation on every play to help block Clowney, or lead block for Gurley through the middle.

If Murray gets 3+ seconds in the pocket, it's going to be a bloodbath. If he does not get 3 seconds in the pocket, it's going to be a bloodbath.

Gurley needs 20 carries for Georgia to win. He averaged 6.2 ypc last year. He averaged 7 ypc against Clemson, and that's taking out the 75 yard TD run. If Gurley finishes the game with 19 or fewer carries, Carolina wins. Take that to the bank.

Defensively, Grantham has moved senior DE Garrison Smith over to Nose. It has several of us Dawg fans scratching our heads. Maybe our starting nose Mike Thornton will take over at left tackle.




Smith is big for an end, he's about DT size, but not Nose big. I'm unsure of what Grantham is up to, but at least he's moving parts around, and that is good. Doing the same thing and expecting different results is what gets coaches fired.

Overall, I expect Georgia's defense to keep pressure on Shaw by rushing Jenkins and/or Floyd on every play, forcing Shaw to take his eye off the secondary to take a step or two, and hopefully making a mistake. It only takes a couple of mistakes to turn the tide of a game. I expect he'll be sacked at least twice.

The key for Grantham is to keep those two middle linebackers close to the LOS to protect the inside run better. I think ILB's Herrera and Wilson are great players, but they are out of position. It's the coach's fault. They are obviously being told to play further back. Maybe that was a particular game plan against Boyd, but they need to be closer against Mike Davis. In a 3-4 front, with one or both of your outside linebackers blitzing, those ILB's absolutely have to plug the holes.




Intangibles:

UGA has home field advantage, day game, should be pretty hot. If Clowney rumors about being out of shape are true, we'll see it again on Saturday.

Josh Harvey-Clemons, the 5 star soph safety-nickel will be back. It's better than the walk-on that started against Clemson, but how much a difference in makes in this game is suspect.

Tray Matthews, safety, has been on and off the practice field with hamstring issues, didn't seem to act up against Clemson that we know of, but that's something to keep an eye on. If he goes out, we know who's coming in for him. The same guy that started for Clemson. The Walk-On.

Georgia's kicker will still be suspended. That could be a good or bad thing. Ideally, you have him. What if the game comes down to a 39 yard field goal, and your cross-trained punter has to make that kick? Morgan is a bit of a choke artist in his own right, but at least he's actually hit some long ones before.




Conclusion:



Carolina takes a big lead, the dawgs pretend they are coming back, but fall short near the end. The Fire Richt talk begins, but this time they're serious. I'd put my money on Carolina, straight up.