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re: Wednesday SEC Basketball
Posted on 2/13/25 at 2:16 am to Papplesbeast
Posted on 2/13/25 at 2:16 am to Papplesbeast
Huh? I think I’ve said multiple times on here how hot Missouri is right now. Are you playing Auburn and Alabama over and over the rest of the way? Otherwise I know of no one predicting you lose out. You guys are physical and accurate shooters. Not sure who would debate this?
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Posted on 2/13/25 at 6:58 am to southpawcock
quote:
We'll hopefully win a couple, but sometimes it's just destiny.
Damn, can I stop being right? I'm just going to stop paying attention (not watching mind you, because I have not been) to see if we win after each game and just check the standings at the end of the season.
Posted on 2/13/25 at 11:17 am to nerdmachine
quote:
Newsflash, so do you losers
You guys relished being ranked above us by 1 spot for a week
Hope it was fun
Posted on 2/13/25 at 11:31 am to Papplesbeast
quote:
Looking at each individual game, BPI has Mizzou favored to win in only 1 of their final 7 (at home against South Carolina). Every other game is predicted to be a loss.
Those BPI or RPI predictors for the rest if the season are somewhat annoying. They only take favorites in each game and so aren't designed to be at all accurate for multiple games.
For example, if a team is only 2 point underdogs in 5 different games, the most likely outcome is more like 2-3 than 0-5.
The odds of losing all 5 games in which you have a 48% of winning each one is pretty low (unless you are South Carolina at home this season.)
Posted on 2/13/25 at 12:04 pm to wm72
quote:
Those BPI or RPI predictors for the rest if the season are somewhat annoying. They only take favorites in each game and so aren't designed to be at all accurate for multiple games. For example, if a team is only 2 point underdogs in 5 different games, the most likely outcome is more like 2-3 than 0-5. The odds of losing all 5 games in which you have a 48% of winning each one is pretty low (unless you are South Carolina at home this season.)
I’ll somewhat come to BPI’s defense here because their matchup predictions are generally serviceable.
And the probabilities compared to their projection for Mizzou’s final record look right.
They have Mizzou finishing 21.7-9.3. Mizzou is favored against
USC 83.8%
@ Vandy 51.6%
UK(!) 52.9%
and narrow dogs against
@ OU 47.8%
Alabama 40.6%
@ Arky 45.3%
@ UGA 43.9%
So in 7 what are essentially coin flips (with one clearly favorable matchup) BPI thinks Mizzou will win an average of 3.7 of them over a thousand flips.
Seems reasonable.
This post was edited on 2/13/25 at 12:09 pm
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