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re: SEC Baseball Tournament - Thursday

Posted on 5/21/26 at 8:45 pm to
Posted by Recognizable Poster
Geaux Tigers
Member since Mar 2026
906 posts
Posted on 5/21/26 at 8:45 pm to
The Gators are on an impressive roll. They're going to be a tough out in this tournament and beyond.
Posted by AUTiger789
Birmingham, AL
Member since Apr 2022
4169 posts
Posted on 5/21/26 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

What's Florida need to do to get a top 8 seed? Do they have to win the tourney or would beating Georgia be enough?


Florida
Florida State
Texas A&M
Southern Miss

Those are the teams vying for that last spot (it’s somewhat possible Alabama could join that group and 2 would jump in).

If Florida beats Georgia, A&M loses tomorrow, USM fails to win their Tournament, and FSU fails to make the finals of the ACC Tourney, Florida would most certainly get a national seed.

It might not take all of that, but that would be best case scenario.
Posted by Rebbedup
Member since Jun 2021
4511 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:10 am to
Nope it appears O’Conner has a handle on things. Why wear your team out this weekend? Not going to change your seeding. I’ve seen too many great teams Miss Omaha while playing day after day in this tournament. They made it a little better by going to single elimination. Best to go home and rest the team before the first round of the NCAA tourney. I’d love someone to explain why we still have this tourney and why there is still an SECCG in football. Seems like it can only hurt.
Posted by TTOWN RONMON
Member since Oct 2023
1689 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 3:35 am to
quote:

Those are the teams vying for that last spot (it’s somewhat possible Alabama could join that group and 2 would jump in).


Why? Bama swept Florida 3 games in the regular season, has a better RPI, SOS etc. Bama beat FSU 2 games I never understood why Auburn is higher, Bama swept them also and everything else is pretty must the same.

Seema like head to head is not counted.

Posted by DawgsLife
Ellijay, Ga.
Member since Jun 2013
62327 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 6:33 am to
Florida was looking really good in their game against Alabama, BigD. Your team must be feeling really good going into our matchup. Seems like UF is getting hot at the right time.
Posted by captdalton
Member since Feb 2021
24704 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 6:38 am to
The Florida team yesterday looked like a different team than the one Alabama played in March.
Posted by AUTiger789
Birmingham, AL
Member since Apr 2022
4169 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 9:03 am to
quote:

Why? Bama swept Florida 3 games in the regular season, has a better RPI, SOS etc.


A lot of talk in baseball circles this season in regards to the flaws of RPI. I do think Bama will ultimately finish ahead of Florida in the seeding, but most other metrics that aren’t linked to RPI show Bama right on the line or behind it…

KPI: Alabama #8 (UF #6)
DSR: Alabama #14 (UF #8)
ELO: Alabama #14 (UF #8)

Even within the RPI-based Quad system, Florida has 2 more Quad 1 wins (16 vs 14) and four more Quad 1+2 wins (23 vs 19).

There’s plenty of data to support putting Florida ahead of Bama. Is there enough to overcome Bama’s 3-1 head-to-head (all 4 games being in the state of Alabama)?… who knows.

quote:

Bama beat FSU 2 games


When did Bama play FSU?

quote:

I never understood why Auburn is higher, Bama swept them also and everything else is pretty must the same.


I think Auburn has to win today to be seeded ahead of Alabama. Yes there was a sweep (in Tuscaloosa), but Auburn is firmly ahead in every metric:

RPI: AU #3, Bama #7
DSR: AU #6, Bama #14
KPI: AU #3, Bama #8
ELO: AU #6, Bama #14

Auburn has 2 more Quad 1 wins (16 vs 14) and six more Quad 1+2 wins (25 vs 19). Auburn has zero bad losses (Q3 or Q4) while Bama has 3.

Against common SEC opponents (series against TX, UF, Ark, OU, and UK), Auburn won four of those series to Bama winning three. Auburn was 9-6 against that group while Bama was 6-9.

In the other series, Bama played four SEC opponents that finished a combined 51-69 in SEC play while Auburn played four opponents that finished 63-56 in SEC play.

Auburn’s resume has a mountain of data points that shows Auburn had been the better team this season. Alabama has a series sweep in Tuscaloosa.

I do think when narrowing something down between two teams, head-to-head is the most important data point, but is it enough to cancel out all that other data? We’ll see. I think Auburn needs to win tonight to secure a higher seed.
This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 9:09 am
Posted by DawgsLife
Ellijay, Ga.
Member since Jun 2013
62327 posts
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

The Florida team yesterday looked like a different team than the one Alabama played in March.


Yeah, and they were the only series we lost, so....hopefully we can scratch out a win. We'll see.
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