Pulling back the curtain on Baseball RPI

Baseball RPI is not the be-all-end-all (it can be gamed by playing chump games on the road or at neutral sites), but conf schedules somewhat flatten that out.

Current Top 8 of RPI is 1 UCLA, 2 Tech, 3 AU, 4 UTx, 5 UNC, 6 bammer, 7 FSU * 8USCw. Of those 8, AU has the most Q1 games (25), has 4 more scheduled this week, and will likely play 1+ more in Hoover (and Arky is presently RPI 26 – move up 1 spot and that’s 3 more Q1 games). In descending, order the Q1 games played for the remaining top 8 RPI team: bammer (23), UTx (22), Tech (21), FSU (18), UNC (14) & UCLA and USCw way down the list with 10 and 8. I just don’t see how in the world AU doesn’t finish w the top strength of schedule (Current Top 10 overall SOS is AU, UF, Ole Miss, bammer, FSU, UTx, okie, MSU, Wake, VaTech.)

A few more general interesting RPI notes. SEC has 9 of the Top 20 RPI teams this week. UGA is next to lowest in that group at 14. Only 4 teams have 0 Q3/4 losses: AU, bully, OMiss & Okie. SEC reg season champ UGA has 4 Q3/4 losses. aTm only has 2 Q2 games this season – none in the SEC (2 Q3 series in conf – home vs Vandy & away at Mizzou). Every SEC team that played Mizzou and SoCar at home has a Q4 conference series (AU played Mizzou in CoMo, thankfully). Bammer dropped 1 spot in RPI this week after losing at Troy but sweeping SoCar on the road.

USCw is #8 RPI, and that makes no sense. They are 0-8 in Q1 games, overall SOS is 40, NCSOS is 96, & KPI and DSR are both #21. It shouldn’t host (much less be in contention for a national seed), but bet the Committee gives either it or Nebraska (RPI 15) a host spot over a more deserving SEC team. (For instance, OMiss RPI is 13, DSR is 16, and KPI is 13. They only host if they take 2/3 in Tuscaloosa, and that will probably just knock another SEC team out of hosting.)

AU vs UCLA RPI comparison is very interesting. Since 4/1, AU has played 1 Q3 (N Samford) and 1 Q4 (H vs Ala St). In that same window, UCLA has played 6 Q3 games (both B10 series) and 5 Q4 games. UCLA’s series at Mich St (RPI # 123) would have been Q4 if played in LA. AU has 4 Away Q1 conf series – uat, aTm, UF, and bully. All 4 would have still been Q1 games if Auburn had played them at home. UCLA has 2 B10 away series (Iowa and OSU) that would be Q3 if played at home and 1(Rutgers) that would be Q4 if played at home. UCLA may be the best team in the country, but are they battle tested?