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re: NIT Watch 2014 (artist formerly known as Bubble Watch)

Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:02 pm to
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
83575 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

If the conference was better Arkansas would probably be a shoe in


Bingo...the conference both gave Arkansas a chance to be good enough to get in and is just lame enough to keep them out.

That said, root like hell for Creighton & UNM/SDSU to prevent more bid theft.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:04 pm to
quote:


The problem is the resume has some bad losses on it as well.


Arkansas has 3 bad losses, @bama, @aTm, against Carolina on a neutral court.

Arkansas has wins over tourney teams.

Take BYU, as an example who has more bad losses and their best win is against another bubble team, Stanford.

It doesn't matter, you can make a case for or against every team on the bubble, hence the reason for them being on the bubble. Every one of them have had a few games get away that would have put them into the tourney, same as the teams in the tourney could have had a few slip away placing them onto the bubble.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:05 pm to
quote:

That said, root like hell for Creighton & UNM/SDSU to prevent more bid theft.



At this point, 9 bids have been stolen from the NIT.

Anymore from the tourney or the NIT will start to impact the total amount of tourney teams the SEC has this year.
Posted by vol017
Louisiana
Member since May 2009
4542 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:12 pm to
quote:

It doesn't matter, you can make a case for or against every team on the bubble, hence the reason for them being on the bubble. Every one of them have had a few games get away that would have put them into the tourney, same as the teams in the tourney could have had a few slip away placing them onto the bubble.


Agreed, but you know more stock is put in the conference tourney and the few games leading up to it.
Posted by RTR America
Memphis, TN
Member since Aug 2012
39600 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

Agreed, but you know more stock is put in the conference tourney and the few games leading up to it.



Yep the first round loss by Kentucky last year to Vandy is what knocked them out. They were in a very similar situation to Arkansas going into the tournament.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

Agreed, but you know more stock is put in the conference tourney and the few games leading up to it.



There is no set criteria, when comparing the teams it could come down to:

"Who did they play? Who did they beat?"

Numbers: "RPI, SOS, Sagarin"

Last 10-12 games.

They could take two teams, say Arkansas and Providence and ask "Who did they play, who did they beat?" To pick between the two then take St. Joe's and Tennessee and ask "What is the RPI, SOS, and Sagarin"? Then take BYU and Nebraska and ask "How were they playing the last 10-12 games?"

Every year there are teams who are written off who get into the tourney, "locks" how find their way to the NIT. This creates controversy, controversy is good for business and generating interest.
Posted by kilo
No block, no rock
Member since Oct 2011
29617 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:24 pm to
Dale, all the trolling and BS aside, do you think Arkansas is going to get an NCAA tourney bid this year?
Posted by CtotheVrzrbck
WeWaCo
Member since Dec 2007
37538 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:25 pm to
You can't expect to get in when you play like that team did in must win games to ensure an invite.

We needed to have a champion in the room for us and we just made their argument a tough one to agree with.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

Dale, all the trolling and BS aside, do you think Arkansas is going to get an NCAA tourney bid this year?



Not with out help from the other tourneys.

No upsets and bids stolen.

Other bubble teams losing.

Arkansas controlled their own destiny, now they have to wait it out.

Mizzou could play their way in tomorrow or be a #1 seed opposite of Arkansas on the NIT bracket.

Tennessee could play their way to the SEC getting three #1 seeds in the NIT tomorrow, or they could secure a spot in the NCAAs.

Some shite teams like Seton Hall, Carolina, etc. could make a run and win their conference tourneys leaving the SEC hoping for 3 bids on selection Sunday.
Posted by vol017
Louisiana
Member since May 2009
4542 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:28 pm to
How the criteria should be and what really happens are 2 different things. When you are trying to convince a selection committee to select you for the tournament over other "bubble teams", you can't lose the last 2 games of the season to the 2 worst teams in the conference. If UT lost to the same 2 teams at this time, there's no fricking way I'd be trying to convinve myself that they'd get in.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:30 pm to
Arkansas isn't the only team to have bad losses the last two weeks of the season...

I'm not trying to convince myself of anything, I'm discussion the process and scenarios involved.
Posted by kilo
No block, no rock
Member since Oct 2011
29617 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:35 pm to
Yea, i hear you, Im not trolling you all at all< was just curious where some of you were at with your thinking at this point without all the noise going on here tonight.

Mizzou is in the same boat. Listless effort some nights and then look like a tourney team the next. Thats on the coaching.

Frustrating stuff
Posted by TN_Tigers
West Tennessee
Member since Feb 2013
7193 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:37 pm to
A lot of basketball to still be played. People tend to overreact to both wins and losses late.

Bracketology is alot different than what goes on in the committee room. Obviously Arkansas needs some stuff to fall their way especially when it comes to bid stealers. There always seems to be an unexpected one.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

Mizzou is in the same boat. Listless effort some nights and then look like a tourney team the next. Thats on the coaching.



Arkansas' biggest problem has been shooting, in the majority of losses they have failed to convert FGs, 3s FTs, or game up a huge differential on the line.

The effort has been there, the team never quit, the team was focused for all but a couple games.

Poor shooting nights lead to losses, just part of the game.
Posted by kilo
No block, no rock
Member since Oct 2011
29617 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Not with out help from the other tourneys.

No upsets and bids stolen.

Other bubble teams losing.

Arkansas controlled their own destiny, now they have to wait it out.

Mizzou could play their way in tomorrow or be a #1 seed opposite of Arkansas on the NIT bracket.

Tennessee could play their way to the SEC getting three #1 seeds in the NIT tomorrow, or they could secure a spot in the NCAAs.

Some shite teams like Seton Hall, Carolina, etc. could make a run and win their conference tourneys leaving the SEC hoping for 3 bids on selection Sunday.


I agree. There is plenty of crazy that can happen this weekend in the various conference tournaments.

Im more or less resigned to our fate at this point. Without a win against Florida we are on our way to the NIT and our chances to beat them are slim and none with our front court.

Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:47 pm to
I watched the Seton Hall/Villanova game.

They had nova down big in the first half then hit a game winner at the buzzer (after trying to hand the game to Nova the last 5 minutes).

I was like "This is what makes March so great!", then I thought, wait someone is going to have to knock this shite team out soon or they are going frick up plenty of other teams in other conferences post seasons.
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68478 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:52 pm to
I don't think we lost from shooting today, we lost from our lack of rebounding.

There were just too many times we felt like we were going to make a run and put it away, and we'd get a big stop on D only to give up the offensive rebound. Or late in the game when they missed that FT and got the rebound, you can't allow that.

We played pretty damn good D all game, only to see them grab the boards way too many times. They had 15 offensive rebounds to our 8, and 40-24 total. And they have shite down low.

If we rebound well, we win that game.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:54 pm to
The had the total margin due to poor shooting.

They had 9 second chance points on 15 Oboards, Arkansas had 10 points on 8 Oboards. (IIRC).

Arkansas has been very officiant with their 2nd chance scoring compared to other teams.

All the total rebound number shows is a poor shooting performance by one or both sides.
Posted by kilo
No block, no rock
Member since Oct 2011
29617 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 8:57 pm to
I have always been a proponent of taking away the auto bid for conference tourneys and giving the conferences auto bids based on the regular season. You could extrapolate conference strength based on a number of measurableS and award more than one based on conference strength if warranted. Then let the committee award the at large bids based on merit not "miracles".

I understand that will never happen because of the business aspect of "March Madness".
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
43499 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 9:03 pm to
Bob Knight has been preaching that for decades now, he is even fine with having a conference tourney, but the bid goes to the regular season champ.

The Ivy league gives their bid to the regular season champ, but does not have a tourney.
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