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NCAA Tournament Consensus Projections
Posted on 5/21/25 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 5/21/25 at 1:42 pm
Baseball America finally updated their projections for the week this morning. Here is how the Bracketology looks as of now:
Teams Projected to be Regional Hosts:
(D1, BA, On3)
1. Texas (1, 1, 1)
2. Arkansas (2, 2, 4)
3. North Carolina (4, 3, 3)
4. Vanderbilt (3, 6, 2)
5. Georgia (5, 4, 5)
6. LSU (7, 5, 6)
7. Auburn (6, 7, 8)
8. Oregon (8, 8, 7)
9. Oregon St (9, 11, 9)
10. Coastal Carolina (10, 9, 11)
11. Florida State (11, 10, 14)
12. Clemson (12, 13, 10)
13. UCLA (13, 12, 16)
14. Alabama (x, 15, 12)
15. Georgia Tech (16, 16, 13)
16. TCU (15, 14, x)
—————
17. Southern Miss (14, x, x)
18. Ole Miss (x, x, 15)
Unanimously Projected 2-Seeds (teams 19-29)
Arizona, Dallas Baptist, Duke, Florida, Kansas, NC State, Tennessee, UC Irvine, UTSA, West Virginia, Wake Forest
Borderline 2/3 Seeds (Teams 30-34):
Kansas State, Louisville, Mississippi State, Northeastern, Oklahoma
Unanimous 3-Seeds Without being included as a “Last 4 Out Team” (Teams 35-38):
Cincinnati, Kentucky, Miami, USC (Teams 39-42)
The Bubble (likely just 4-6 of these get in)
39t. Arizona State
39t. Connecticut
39t. Oklahoma State
42. Troy
43t. Creighton
43t. Notre Dame
45t. Cal Poly
45t. Virginia
45t. Xavier
48t. UT Rio Grande
48t. Western Kentucky
50. Notre Dame
I would have to imagine Texas A&M is now in the 48-52 range following today’s win.
Teams Projected to be Regional Hosts:
(D1, BA, On3)
1. Texas (1, 1, 1)
2. Arkansas (2, 2, 4)
3. North Carolina (4, 3, 3)
4. Vanderbilt (3, 6, 2)
5. Georgia (5, 4, 5)
6. LSU (7, 5, 6)
7. Auburn (6, 7, 8)
8. Oregon (8, 8, 7)
9. Oregon St (9, 11, 9)
10. Coastal Carolina (10, 9, 11)
11. Florida State (11, 10, 14)
12. Clemson (12, 13, 10)
13. UCLA (13, 12, 16)
14. Alabama (x, 15, 12)
15. Georgia Tech (16, 16, 13)
16. TCU (15, 14, x)
—————
17. Southern Miss (14, x, x)
18. Ole Miss (x, x, 15)
Unanimously Projected 2-Seeds (teams 19-29)
Arizona, Dallas Baptist, Duke, Florida, Kansas, NC State, Tennessee, UC Irvine, UTSA, West Virginia, Wake Forest
Borderline 2/3 Seeds (Teams 30-34):
Kansas State, Louisville, Mississippi State, Northeastern, Oklahoma
Unanimous 3-Seeds Without being included as a “Last 4 Out Team” (Teams 35-38):
Cincinnati, Kentucky, Miami, USC (Teams 39-42)
The Bubble (likely just 4-6 of these get in)
39t. Arizona State
39t. Connecticut
39t. Oklahoma State
42. Troy
43t. Creighton
43t. Notre Dame
45t. Cal Poly
45t. Virginia
45t. Xavier
48t. UT Rio Grande
48t. Western Kentucky
50. Notre Dame
I would have to imagine Texas A&M is now in the 48-52 range following today’s win.
4
Posted on 5/21/25 at 1:49 pm to AUTiger789
A&M has to win the tourney to get in
Posted on 5/21/25 at 2:20 pm to AUTiger789
Wait Tenn's not hosting?
Posted on 5/21/25 at 4:35 pm to Jimmy Bags
quote:
Wait Tenn's not hosting?
Assuming they hang on to destroy Bama, it will be interesting to see how their metrics change. They could potentially get back into the Regional host picture.
Granted the committee is often lazy and doesn’t factor SEC tournament games much.
But just looking at their resumes, UT’s and Bama’s are nearly identical in every way. I think UT now having a 3-1 record over the Tide this season should put them ahead in the pecking order.
Posted on 5/21/25 at 5:40 pm to AUTiger789
Posted on 5/21/25 at 11:47 pm to AUTiger789
Georgia 1 and done.
Still a top 8?
Still a top 8?
Posted on 5/22/25 at 5:38 am to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
Georgia 1 and done. Still a top 8?
Of course.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:09 am to AUTiger789
Looks like Baseball America has updated their projections based on yesterday’s results.
Ole Miss is now a projected host, with Alabama falling to a 2-seed.
Ole Miss is now a projected host, with Alabama falling to a 2-seed.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:31 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Ole Miss is now a projected host, with Alabama falling to a 2-seed.
We likely need to win another game to be a host. Where'd you see their latest projections?
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:34 am to RebelTheBear
quote:
Where'd you see their latest projections?
LINK
On3 had Ole Miss hosting a regional going into this week already.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 9:36 am
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:48 am to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
Georgia 1 and done. Still a top 8?
Nobody’s losing ground because of a single elimination tournament. You can possibly gain some ground but there’s nothing really to lose other than an opportunity to build resume if needed
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:52 am to AUTiger789
I would have probably had Alabama out as a host before the SECt started. They were 4-6 this season in SEC series. Ole Miss went 5-5 in weekend series in SEC play, has more Q1 wins with a tougher SOS.
Though when you compare Alabama to who else is up in the host discussion nationally, a case can be made for them against a TCU, UCLA, Florida State, etc.
Though when you compare Alabama to who else is up in the host discussion nationally, a case can be made for them against a TCU, UCLA, Florida State, etc.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 10:33 am to Hawgeye
quote:
case can be made for them against a TCU, UCLA, Florida State, etc.
If the committee selected based off of blind resumes, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Alabama would all probably host a regional.
UCLA’s resume is the one that is a complete joke but they’ll likely end up hosting because they are from the Big 10 and are West Coast.
Comparing the teams that are close to that Regional Host line…
RPI
#11 Alabama
#12 Tennessee
#14 UCLA
#15 Florida Stare
#17 Ole Miss
#19 TCU
#20 Georgia Tech
#21 Southern Miss
ELO
#9 Southern Miss
#13 Tennessee
#17 Florida State
#19 Alabama
#20 Georgia Tech
#22 Ole Miss
#30 UCLA
#31 TCU
SOS
#9 Ole Miss
#17 Tennessee
#18 Alabama
#20 TCU
#23 UCLA
#25 Georgia Tech
#30 Florida State
#71 Southern Miss
Quad 1 Wins / Record
17-14 Ole Miss
16-13 Alabama
14-10 Tennessee
12-9 Florida State
12-10 Georgia Tech
7-4 Southern Miss
7-7 TCU
3-7 UCLA (!)
Quad 1+2 Wins / Record
21-15 TCU
20-15 Alabama
19-13 Tennessee
18-16 Ole Miss
16-12 Florida State
15-11 Georgia Tech
12-7 Southern Miss
12-8 UCLA
Head-to-Head
Tennessee is now 3-1 vs Alabama and 2-1 vs Ole Miss
Alabama is 1-3 vs Tennessee and 1-0 vs Southern Miss
Ole Miss is 1-2 vs Tennessee and 1-1 vs Southern Miss
Southern Miss is 2-1 vs TCU, 1-1 vs Ole Miss, and 0-1 vs Alabama
TCU is 1-2 vs Southern Miss
I don’t see how any person could blindly look at those resumes and say that UCLA deserves to host a regional over any of the 3 SEC teams… and for that matter, Florida is probably more deserving as well.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 10:38 am to AUTiger789
I am "hoping" that the selection of teams this year doesnt penalize teams from the same league.
It should not be a contest within the same conference, but a contest between teams nationally. Softball seems to not care about how many teams from each league now, etc.
Baseball needs to do the same. There are 6 top 8 seeds in the SEC and there are 3-4 outside of those teams who should get a host spot. I even include Florida in that, because of how they have come on since starting league play so bad.
It should not be a contest within the same conference, but a contest between teams nationally. Softball seems to not care about how many teams from each league now, etc.
Baseball needs to do the same. There are 6 top 8 seeds in the SEC and there are 3-4 outside of those teams who should get a host spot. I even include Florida in that, because of how they have come on since starting league play so bad.
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