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re: LSU vs Georgia, objective analysis
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:19 pm to Jaketigger
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:19 pm to Jaketigger
While Charles has caught passes all over the field, I would bet a season long diagram would show the majority of his catches a little outside the middle. When he does go over the middle, he tends to be the deep receiver. It is actually Michael Bennett who will often be the short middle receiver. To be honest, I think the GT game was the most I have seen Murray hit short crossing routes. For the most part he lives on the edges ( personally, I think he has a hard time seeing over the OL).
1
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:21 pm to dreaux
40 to 17
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:22 pm to SoGaFan
quote:I don't think he's going to have the time to make these throws or the open receivers to throw them to, so:
For the most part he lives on the edges
quote:This is the way UGA keeps it close - and tosses in the backfield. I can't see them running it well or giving Murray much time to throw with a bad OL
I think the GT game was the most I have seen Murray hit short crossing routes
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:39 pm to SoGaFan
quote:
Granted, I am much more familiar with horse racing, but the pro money always goes in about 5 seconds before the last horse loads in the gate. There is no way, pro money is coming down on this game yet with a week worth's of practices and injury reports still to come.
Holy shite, where to begin...
Granted, predicting a horse race is exactly the same as predicting a college football game.
Really, where to begin... I'll begin with reality:
I spent a decade in LV handicapping college football and playing poker, making a shitload in the process to finance my family and my education. So why don't you verify your cred's. I'll be more than happy to verify mine.
A 3.5 point move on a DD fav within 1 day is the betting public coming in hard, is what you're arguing. Tourist money, surely.
I'm not gonna even go farther. Nice verbiage. Pure dipshitness behind it, but hey, nice try.
BTW -- With no more than 15 minutes devoted in any given week in an 80+ person ATS football pool, I'm tied for third. cmmc11
15 minutes per week. I can do this shite for $$$ in my sleep. Bring your expertise. I'll be right here.
This post was edited on 11/28/11 at 9:02 pm
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:43 pm to Tiger7109
Well what do you think about the line moving
Vegas or coonass'es
Vegas or coonass'es
Posted on 11/28/11 at 8:57 pm to UWGDAWG
quote:
Well what do you think about the line moving Vegas or coonass'es
I think you sound -- literally 100% sound -- like the Hog apologists exactly one week ago to the hour.
They can't be found at this hour. Not one of 'em.
btw -- We embrace "coonass". We're proud of that moniker. You're only making us prouder. I mean, just imagine if a bunch of "coonasses" smoke your peach asses. Then what for you? Cap One Bowl?
Posted on 11/28/11 at 9:01 pm to Tiger7109
I wasn't insulting you at all, I was asking your
opinion on the line moving you say your pretty good at that stuff
and please don't confuse me with a Arky fan
I will only be disappointed with the dawgs if they lay down
opinion on the line moving you say your pretty good at that stuff
and please don't confuse me with a Arky fan
I will only be disappointed with the dawgs if they lay down
Posted on 11/28/11 at 9:10 pm to NaturalBeam
quote:
This is the way UGA keeps it close - and tosses in the backfield. I can't see them running it well or giving Murray much time to throw with a bad OL
Agreed. This way we can take advantage of their LBs which apparently are the "weakest" part of their defense. Plus since they're so deep in the secondary we should use a lot of no huddle out of a pro-set to keep them out of a nickel package and to tire their defense out.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 9:14 pm to UWGDAWG
quote:
I wasn't insulting you at all, I was asking your opinion on the line moving you say your pretty good at that stuff
My sincerest apologies. I'm just so used to getting flamed any time I make a fact-based argument here.
I'm one of the guys who spent their Fridays and Saturdays in the Stardust room (before the Stardust was flattened) running in and out of the joint on the phone paying for inside info. I'll leave it at that.
Any 3+ line move inside of a day became a July 4th to the touristas. Would result in a DD win roughly 80% of the time, 90+ % if that hits 4, with 80-90% of the tickets costing the books. A bath.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants meet for hours before setting a line, with lots of differing opinions factoring in. It's like a jury verdict every week. And they all settle on a line. Sometimes they're wrong. You gotta pay attention to know when. And pound 'em when they are wrong. They're praying for a UGA single digit loss, or (not gonna happen) win, because the moneyline on the Dawgs is proportionally outlandish.
That said, a -13.5 LSU line is about right. They fricked up. -10 is gonna cost 'em a bit of credibility at the Hilton, alone. But they've underestimated LSU all season. I mean, LSU is 9-3 ATS. It's 2003 all over again. These guys are banking that none of you remember that far back.
Bottom line, if the line settles at -13.5 for another 24 hours, jump the F on it, pound it, before it hits -14. I got LSU -11, with fries.
You're welcome.
This post was edited on 11/28/11 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 11/28/11 at 9:26 pm to Tiger7109
quote:
Holy shite, where to begin...
Granted, predicting a horse race is exactly the same as predicting a college football game.
Really, where to begin... I'll begin with reality:
I spent a decade in LV handicapping college football and playing poker, making a shitload in the process to finance my family and my education. So why don't you verify your cred's. I'll be more than happy to verify mine.
A 3.5 point move on a DD fav within 1 day is the betting public coming in hard, is what you're arguing. Tourist money, surely.
I'm not gonna even go farther. Nice verbiage. Pure dipshitness behind it, but hey, nice try.
BTW -- With no more than 15 minutes devoted in any given week in an 80+ person ATS football pool, I'm tied for third. cmmc11
15 minutes per week. I can do this shite for $$$ in my sleep. Bring your expertise. I'll be right here.
I played the ponies for fun. Enjoyed winning more than losing. Earned my degrees, my job, and its wages (which let me buy season tickets and enjoy my team winning whether it is by 1 or 100 points) solely through hard work, sleepless nights, and good grades.
And yes, I still say that the true pros out there are going to be waiting till all the information is in before laying their real money on the game. Although I can certainly see them manipulating the line to get it where they want it with smaller wages. As for the pro gamblers of the internet, well, I will certainly defer to you and your sterling reputation and 15 minutes of devotion. Hopefully, you give your wife a bit more.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 9:30 pm to SoGaFan
quote:
Hopefully, you give your wife a bit more.
Believe me, she sees a bit more than I ever will.
And you seem to be inferring that I'm a "middler". I'm here to tell you that that's a myth. No one is that good. Those who succeed at sports betting of any kind are the loner nerds. Nothing more to it than that. It's hardly a glory gig. That's why I got out of it. It's a degenerative existence. I'm just passing on some knowledge.
This post was edited on 11/28/11 at 9:32 pm
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