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re: Kansas to the BIG 10 is "Imminent"
Posted on 8/3/21 at 8:56 pm to Bengalbio
Posted on 8/3/21 at 8:56 pm to Bengalbio
I don’t think the Big Ten is going to add Kansas.
Yes, Kansas can claim the Kansas City media market but that is a cable television mentality. The future of cfb revenue is in “Saturday Ticket” type products and the value of the brands - how many subscribers they’ll bring to the table - is the discriminator. Maybe not tomorrow but this math is going to become more important sooner rather than later.
Also remember, the schools control all the television revenue in football but only the regular season and conference tournament revenue in basketball (and the big money is in the basketball tournament). So the big draw for Kansas in your conference is not worth all that much in terms of revenue.
The Big Ten added way too many weak programs in the last expansion mainly in the name of media market additions. They really can’t afford anymore because the streaming subscription math isn’t going to work for all the mouths they’d have to feed off it.
This is why I think the Big Ten may stay at 14 and be the launching point for the end game of expansion where we get an NFL-like mega conference with the 20-30 big bloods lucky enough to be invited. That’ll probably be in a decade or so though.
Yes, Kansas can claim the Kansas City media market but that is a cable television mentality. The future of cfb revenue is in “Saturday Ticket” type products and the value of the brands - how many subscribers they’ll bring to the table - is the discriminator. Maybe not tomorrow but this math is going to become more important sooner rather than later.
Also remember, the schools control all the television revenue in football but only the regular season and conference tournament revenue in basketball (and the big money is in the basketball tournament). So the big draw for Kansas in your conference is not worth all that much in terms of revenue.
The Big Ten added way too many weak programs in the last expansion mainly in the name of media market additions. They really can’t afford anymore because the streaming subscription math isn’t going to work for all the mouths they’d have to feed off it.
This is why I think the Big Ten may stay at 14 and be the launching point for the end game of expansion where we get an NFL-like mega conference with the 20-30 big bloods lucky enough to be invited. That’ll probably be in a decade or so though.
This post was edited on 8/3/21 at 8:58 pm
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Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:00 pm to BigBro
quote:
I guarantee that Vandy & Missouri have at least been called about it.
Will NEVER happen.
No school has even remotely considered leaving the SEC in over 50 years.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:20 pm to Audioman213
Didn’t help Nebraska
Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:31 pm to Scoper
This is ridiculous. I don't think the other universities that make up the Big 10 are interested in taking a pay cut. The math does not add up.
According to this link, here is the current Big 10 TV deal.
$2.64 billion for 6 years for 14 schools.
MATH
That is a payout of 31.4 million per school each year from the TV deal.
To expand to 16 teams and divide the pie another two schools, KU and whoever their partner is (Iowa State?) would have to bring in almost $65-70 million of annual revenue just to break even.
To move the needle, they would have to bring in $100 million combined per year average.
If they were capable of having that value, they would have their own impressive Tier III rights deal in the Big 12 right now, similar to LHN. If they were capable of that value, networks would be interested in extending or granting another GOR.
The fact they don't have one is proof they don't bring in that type of value.
Bowlsby claims the 8-teams that remain in the Big 12 are still worth around $23 million payout each season (if we believe OU and Texas leaving loses only $14mm a season), so right there... at best... the entire 8 teams left in the Big 12 combined only would bring in $184 million total per season in a TV payout. This according to their own commissioner.
There are no two-team combination of current Big 12 teams that add enough television revenue for the Big 10 or SEC to add and divide up.
According to this link, here is the current Big 10 TV deal.
$2.64 billion for 6 years for 14 schools.
MATH
That is a payout of 31.4 million per school each year from the TV deal.
To expand to 16 teams and divide the pie another two schools, KU and whoever their partner is (Iowa State?) would have to bring in almost $65-70 million of annual revenue just to break even.
To move the needle, they would have to bring in $100 million combined per year average.
If they were capable of having that value, they would have their own impressive Tier III rights deal in the Big 12 right now, similar to LHN. If they were capable of that value, networks would be interested in extending or granting another GOR.
The fact they don't have one is proof they don't bring in that type of value.
Bowlsby claims the 8-teams that remain in the Big 12 are still worth around $23 million payout each season (if we believe OU and Texas leaving loses only $14mm a season), so right there... at best... the entire 8 teams left in the Big 12 combined only would bring in $184 million total per season in a TV payout. This according to their own commissioner.
There are no two-team combination of current Big 12 teams that add enough television revenue for the Big 10 or SEC to add and divide up.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:37 pm to Tiger_Claw
LINK
Stewart Mandel:
Basketball is essentially irrelevant to realignment decisions. It just isn’t a big part of the contracts conferences make with broadcasters.
Stewart Mandel:
quote:
I'm being pelted by Kansas hoops fans re: the Big Ten, so, here's some math. Bowlsby said the Big 12's TV deal ($250M/yr.) is 50% OU/Texas. So, the others = $125M. TV deals are 80% football. So, rest of Big 12 hoops = $25M. That's 1/2 what the B1G makes in TV *per school.*
Basketball is essentially irrelevant to realignment decisions. It just isn’t a big part of the contracts conferences make with broadcasters.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:53 pm to UKWildcats
Get it done- please.
Kentucky basketball are bastards, but you're our bastards.
Screw Kansas and their stupid-looking mascot
Kentucky basketball are bastards, but you're our bastards.
Screw Kansas and their stupid-looking mascot
Posted on 8/3/21 at 11:49 pm to BigBro
quote:
That’s a solid move imo. All are AAU schools (except Nebraska who lost it) and the footprint is fricking huge..
Though not meaningless, footprint simply does not mean nearly as much anymore and should be quickly declining further. How TV is viewed is changing quickly. Streaming subscriptions are taking the place of cable boxes. So, it is eyeballs actually watching the games that matter the most, not whether how many cable boxes exist in an area.
Typically, and not unsurprisingly, the following markets are tops in reference to college football:
1 Birmingham (Has been the top ESPN market for 12 consecutive years. That is with CBS broadcasting the top SEC games, where Alabama appears the max each year which is 5 or 6 times, including the prime time game each year and Birmingham being primarily a "Bama town", probably close to 3=1 over AU.)
2 Columbus
3 OKC
Posted on 8/3/21 at 11:56 pm to Scoper
Iowa State is a program and fans that I respect, hope they find a good home as for kU, frick them.
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