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re: Joey Aguilar out performed Ty Simpson against their only common opponent UGA
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:30 pm to madmaxvol
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:30 pm to madmaxvol
quote:
I understand...math is hard. Have a nice day, yourself.
I use to run a program that predicted game winners and spread getting it right about 75% of the time on average using nothing but stats.
But there is nothing I can do if you want to pick half the games a team plays and compare only their opponents in cherry picked games while at the same time completely ignoring the other teams stats and pretend like it's meaningful.
And on top of it all, it's numbers like 1, 2 and 3. Oh they had 1 here and 2 in this game, that is significant!
1
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:32 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:43 pm to Hback
He's a state fan, he was until a big dick Bama fan fricked his momma and girlfriend.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:49 pm to 3down10
quote:
That's not context, you didn't even include Tennessee.
Ok...here is Tennessee for even more context.
Syracuse had zero sacks against UT. They had: 1 against UCONN, 2 against Colgate, 1 against Clemson, 3 against Duke, 1 against SMU. So, Syracuse isn't a great pass-rush team, but UT is the only team they've played so far where they didn't get any sacks.
ETSU - Won't count their numbers because FCS and FBS don't translate well. Don't worry...I wouldn't have counted Bama's numbers against Eastern Illinois if they played them earlier in the season, either.
Georgia had 1 sack against UT. They had: 1 sack against Marshall, 2 sacks against Appy State, 1 sack against Bama, 2 against Kentucky, 1 against Auburn. For more direct comparison...Georgia had 1 sack against UT in 36 pass attempts, and 1 sack against Bama with 39 pass attempts. So...in the common opponent, they were very comparable.
UAB had 1 sack against UT. They had: 2 sacks against Alcorn State, 0 sacks against Navy (note that Navy had 8 pass attempts), 5 sacks against Akron, 1 sack against Army (note that Army had 3 pass attempts), 0 sacks against FAU. *Sidenote...their Sack against UT was on Jake Merklinger in the 3rd quarter when UT was up 56-17.
Mississippi State had 2 sacks against UT. They had: 1 sack against Southern Miss, 2 sacks against Arizona State, 1 sack against Alcorn State, 1 sack against Northern Illinois, 1 sack against Texas A&M. Not a great game...UT did have to stick a Freshman in at OT for his first college action, but that is a depth issue...and just part of the game.
Arkansas had 0 sacks against UT. They had: 2 sacks against Alabama A&M, 4 sacks against Arkansas State, 1 sack against Ole Miss, 3 sacks against Memphis, 1 sack against Notre Dame.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:51 pm to 3down10
quote:
I use to run a program that predicted game winners and spread getting it right about 75% of the time on average using nothing but stats.
That's impressive. I got my 6-sigma black belt in 2002, and can run control charts through Minitab if you would prefer.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:52 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:
Aguilar out performed Ty Simpson against their only common opponent UGA
Bragging about a loss at home is certainly a choice.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:54 pm to madmaxvol
Bama can't really run the ball though and that falls on the oline imo. Advantage UT.
Also the Bama number one RB, their only productive rusher, is likely out this game.
If we don't muff any punts and don't commit any turnovers, I really believe we win this game going away. Last year we would have won in a complete blowout with a competent QB.
We are a bad matchup right now for Bama and folks are about to see it.
Also the Bama number one RB, their only productive rusher, is likely out this game.
If we don't muff any punts and don't commit any turnovers, I really believe we win this game going away. Last year we would have won in a complete blowout with a competent QB.
We are a bad matchup right now for Bama and folks are about to see it.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 2:56 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:Vegas obviously doesn't think so.
We are a bad matchup right now for Bama and folks are about to see it.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:00 pm to TT9
They just know all the dumb money that will gladly get fleeced and will bet on a large spread in Bama 's favor just because they are Bama.
The Saban effect still hasn't died down completely with the general public.
The Saban effect still hasn't died down completely with the general public.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:02 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:
We are a bad matchup right now for Bama and folks are about to see it.
Alabama is one of the most efficient pass offenses in the country (#6 pass eff) and you are one of the worst pass defenses in the country (#82 pass eff d).
Your strength is throwing the ball (#22 pass eff) but that lines up with Alabama's strength (#22 pass eff D)
What the hell are you talking about? Tennessee is pretty good and could win the game a number of ways, but nothing about this game is "this is a bad matchup for Alabama".
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:02 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
Na, they know who the superior team is. Again, Vols have played nobody. Only decent team they've played beat them.
In Neyland.
In Neyland.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We can run the ball and you can't.... definitely not without your leading rusher.That will play a huge role in this game and as a result, Joey will have it easier in the passing game than Simpson does.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:07 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:
We can run the ball and you can't
You have played 2 semi-competent defenses (State barely counts as semi-competent) and ran for an average of 128 yards a game and 3.87 YPA.
You ran wild on #117 Syracuse, #124 Arkansas, #129 UAB and FCS ETSU.
quote:
Joey will have it easier in the passing game than Simpson does.
I can pretty much guarantee he will not.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/15/25 at 12:46 pm to BigBro
Did Ty start out 14 for 14 against UGA? Advantage Joey Aguilar.
On 3rd downs he did indeed.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:17 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:
It just annoys to see Simpson leading the Heisman race with JA nowhere in sight, when Joey's numbers are practically identical.
The Smokey Mountain School of the Dentally Impaired experience a few successful seasons and their fanbase goes full on retard in thinking they're a powerhouse program.
No one gives 2 shits about a school from Dollywood much less their Portal Potty QB.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:18 pm to madmaxvol
quote:
Ok...here is Athlon Sport Preseason Top 25 OL Rankings:
Well Gee Whizzz!!! A preaseason ranking! How absolutely definitive.
Here are the top 5 QBs that the premier prognosticators of college football at Athlon picked
LINK
1) Arch Manning
2) Cade Klubnik
3) Garrett Nussmeier
4) LaNorris Sellers
5) DJ Lagaway
You really are not very good at this are you.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting stat. South Alabama ranks 31st in the country rushing the ball while Bama isn't even in the top 50.
Imagine a Nick Saban Bama team being out rushed by another tiny in state directional school and being well out of the top 50 best rushing teams in the nation. It would NEVER happen.
Do you know who else is ranked outside of the top 50 rushing the ball? BK and LSU. Big surprise I know.
Deboer is trash just like finesse Kelly.
Imagine a Nick Saban Bama team being out rushed by another tiny in state directional school and being well out of the top 50 best rushing teams in the nation. It would NEVER happen.
Do you know who else is ranked outside of the top 50 rushing the ball? BK and LSU. Big surprise I know.
Deboer is trash just like finesse Kelly.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:25 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
quote:
Bama can't really run the ball though and that falls on the oline imo. Advantage UT.
While Bama has struggled to run the ball some this season, I'm not confident in our run D...especially if we rely on the secondary to come up. They have been taking bad angles all season.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:25 pm to TT9
And Vegas is never wrong /s
Posted on 10/15/25 at 3:25 pm to madmaxvol
quote:
Ok...here is Tennessee for even more context.
Syracuse had zero sacks against UT. They had: 1 against UCONN, 2 against Colgate, 1 against Clemson, 3 against Duke, 1 against SMU. So, Syracuse isn't a great pass-rush team, but UT is the only team they've played so far where they didn't get any sacks.
ETSU - Won't count their numbers because FCS and FBS don't translate well. Don't worry...I wouldn't have counted Bama's numbers against Eastern Illinois if they played them earlier in the season, either.
Georgia had 1 sack against UT. They had: 1 sack against Marshall, 2 sacks against Appy State, 1 sack against Bama, 2 against Kentucky, 1 against Auburn. For more direct comparison...Georgia had 1 sack against UT in 36 pass attempts, and 1 sack against Bama with 39 pass attempts. So...in the common opponent, they were very comparable.
UAB had 1 sack against UT. They had: 2 sacks against Alcorn State, 0 sacks against Navy (note that Navy had 8 pass attempts), 5 sacks against Akron, 1 sack against Army (note that Army had 3 pass attempts), 0 sacks against FAU. *Sidenote...their Sack against UT was on Jake Merklinger in the 3rd quarter when UT was up 56-17.
Mississippi State had 2 sacks against UT. They had: 1 sack against Southern Miss, 2 sacks against Arizona State, 1 sack against Alcorn State, 1 sack against Northern Illinois, 1 sack against Texas A&M. Not a great game...UT did have to stick a Freshman in at OT for his first college action, but that is a depth issue...and just part of the game.
Arkansas had 0 sacks against UT. They had: 2 sacks against Alabama A&M, 4 sacks against Arkansas State, 1 sack against Ole Miss, 3 sacks against Memphis, 1 sack against Notre Dame.
But now you've proven your original assertion to be incorrect for the reasons I've mentioned, the difference is no where near the original stats.
quote:
Tennessee is #10 with 0.8 per game
Alabama is #83 with 2.2 per game
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