re: Is Georgia's 2021 Defense That Much Better Than 2020?

No, it isn’t trying hard. It is just the numbers. I think the Vegas line would probably go Georgia’s way, of course, because the line is supposed to control money wagered, not predict scores. Bettors like a trend, and Georgia is tending. But as far as predicting a score, UGA is holding teams to 75% off passing and around 45% of rushing. That is probably getting close to the floor of what anyone can accomplish. A high powered offense historically has a high chance to break an explosive play or two that skews the total yardage upwards. 450 yards is a good estimate, and if you look at offenses this year, that nets around 32-37 points.

I haven’t done the per attempt yardage for Georgia’s offense, and per game yardage is VASTLY inferior as a predictor (like, worthless to even talk about). But we’ve averaged 38 against marginally better defenses.

32-37 on one side, 38 on the other. I lean towards the high end for OSU, just based on recent trend.

To me, any game within 3 is basically a pick’em