re: Iron Bowl Prediction

My first prediction may not be my final prediction. All sorts of things change every day that affect college football in ways that don't affect pro football predictions.

At first blush I always ask myself the same two questions: Who wins straight up and is a blowout possible?

I think Alabama wins and I think they have the potential to blow out Auburn. I don't think Auburn has the potential to blow out Alabama but they certainly have the firepower both offensively and defensively to upset Alabama. That simple conclusion makes Alabama the favorite albeit far from conclusive. The 4 point line further backs my diagnosis of the game. Auburn has one of the fiercest home field advantages in all of College Football. If the pros from around the world who establish the "opening" line believe Alabama will win by 4 in that environment that further solidifies my confidence Alabama will win the game. The betting publics reaction to that line so far is to endorse it pushing it higher.

My next consideration when trying to predict the outcome of a game I intend to bet is how much risk is there the outcome could be different than my first inclination. This is the most important aspect of my process in deciding whether to bet the game. At this moment I think there is a very significant chance Auburn can upset Alabama. I think that risk is great enough - possibly 40% to 50% that it makes betting the game a pure toss-up gamble.

Prediction: I think Alabama will win - however the possibility of an upset is too high to have enough confidence in the prediction to make a wager on it.