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re: How far will Texas fall after losing badly to UGA again?
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:53 am to jryanw
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:53 am to jryanw
quote:
Very likely final ranking after Saturday. Boise and SMU at 3 and 4 is gross though. They have to change the rules for 1st round byes imho
It's pretty absurd that, in Texas' situation, you might be better off losing on Saturday in terms of the next 2 games (other than having to play 5 games in 6 weeks) than winning Saturday and then having to play Georgia for a 3rd time in the Quarters.
Same with Oregon. You could definitely argue that Oregon's path would be significantly easier as a #5 than #1.
#5 ---- vs Iowa State, vs Boise State
#1 ---- BYE, vs Ohio State/Tennessee
Georgia is different because I'd guess that a 3rd loss would drop them slightly into "road game" territory. You definitely want to avoid that.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 10:56 am
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Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:54 am to jryanw
quote:
However is there an argument for Ole Miss to take their spot? I know the committee won’t do it but man they should
It pains me to give those petulant brats any credit whatsoever, but an SECCG loss to UGA would only be their second. If they'd dropped two already and their third loss was to Georgia in the Benz, then there'd be much more of a case to exclude them entirely at that point.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#5 Texas vs #12 Arizona State/Iowa State (winner vs #4 Boise State) #6 Penn State vs #11 Alabama (winner vs #3 SMU) #7 Notre Dame vs #10 Indiana (winner #2 Georgia) #8 Ohio State vs #9 Tennessee (winner vs #1 Oregon)
How much do the UcheaT fans melt over this if it happens? lol. UGA, Texas and Bama all have easy paths to the final 4. UcheaT has to play at tOSU and the number 1 team in the country if they find a way to win that game
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:56 am to BigBro
quote:
If Oregon & Texas wins..
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3.
4.
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Georgia
In no universe would Tennessee reasonably be ranked above a UGA team who not only went to the SECCG, but thumped Tennessee soundly during the regular season.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 10:57 am
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:56 am to VoxDawg
quote:
It pains me to give those petulant brats any credit whatsoever, but an SECCG loss to UGA would only be their second. If they'd dropped two already and their third loss was to Georgia in the Benz, then there'd be much more of a case to exclude them entirely at that point.
I agree the Committee doesn’t have the balls to do it. Ole Miss is a better team than Texas if the most likely outcome happens again Saturday
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:57 am to jryanw
quote:
How much do the UcheaT fans melt over this if it happens? lol. UGA, Texas and Bama all have easy paths to the final 4. UcheaT has to play at tOSU and the number 1 team in the country if they find a way to win that game
It's fair to say that the #9 spot in this playoff format is bye far the worst spot to be. #8 is going to likely be a very good team that didn't make their conference title game from the SEC/B1G. Your next game is #1. Then you likely play #5, who will also be a very good big conference team. And then if you somehow win that you get an elite team in the final.
Their path would be something like
- @ Ohio State
- Oregon (out West in a bowl)
- Texas
- Georgia
I mean holy hell.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:58 am to VoxDawg
quote:
In no universe would Tennessee reasonably be ranked above a UGA team who not only went to the SECCG, but thumped Tennessee soundly during the regular season.
It will be interesting if it happens. The only way is if UGA is beat badly by Texas. I don’t see that happening though
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:58 am to jryanw
quote:
No sir. Check again. Texas will have played 1 ranked team twice(UGA) and they will have lost badly both times.
Texas has played 9 bowl eligible teams
Texas has played 5 Top 30 teams according to Sagarin
Texas has played 5 Top 30 teams according to Massey
Texas played a lot of teams that beat high ranked teams.
Arkansas beat Tennessee
Kentucky beat Ole Miss
Florida beat Ole Miss
Vanderbilt beat Alabama
Oklahoma beat Alabama
Our schedule is what it is.. but I'm not convinced we have to show our whole hand this weekend with a likely rematch coming soon.. I'd like to win the SEC CCG, but I'd rather beat Georgia when it really counts.
Where this matters? The usage of Arch. I'm not saying Texas will beat Georgia with Arch.. but I think he gives us a better chance. Georgia struggles with QB's that can run..
So does Sark use Arch this weekend more trying to win the SEC CCG? Or does he save those packages for a more important game. Time will tell.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:58 am to VoxDawg
quote:
In no universe would Tennessee reasonably be ranked above a UGA team who not only went to the SECCG, but thumped Tennessee soundly during the regular season.
I agree - I'd guess Georgia falls to 9 and Tennessee to 10 or something like that.
#8 Indiana vs #9 Georgia
#7 Ohio State vs #10 Tennessee
Though it's also possible they decide to only drop Georgia to #8 and still have them host the 8/9 game vs Indiana.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 11:00 am
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's fair to say that the #9 spot in this playoff format is bye far the worst spot to be. #8 is going to likely be a very good team that didn't make their conference title game from the SEC/B1G. Your next game is #1. Then you likely play #5, who will also be a very good big conference team. And then if you somehow win that you get an elite team in the final. Their path would be something like - @ Ohio State - Oregon (out West in a bowl) - Texas - Georgia I mean holy hell.
Brutal. lol. And they can thank getting all the calls against Bama at home again for it
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:00 am to BigBro
quote:
Texas played a lot of teams that beat high ranked teams. Arkansas beat Tennessee Kentucky beat Ole Miss Florida beat Ole Miss Vanderbilt beat Alabama Oklahoma beat Alabama
But you have no beat any top 25 teams.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:00 am to VoxDawg
quote:.
In no universe would Tennessee reasonably be ranked above a UGA team who not only went to the SECCG, but thumped Tennessee soundly during the regular season.
Ok, so put Ohio State in the 7th spot. I was just pointing out that I think they will try to put Texas and Georgia on opposite sides of the bracket.. but maybe that is wrong..
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:02 am to jryanw
quote:
But you have no beat any top 25 teams.
Texas is 4-1 against current Top 30 Sagarin and Massey teams. Imo, that's probably more accurate than an AP or Coaches Poll that mostly just looks at wins and losses.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:03 am to BigBro
quote:
Ok, so put Ohio State in the 7th spot. I was just pointing out that I think they will try to put Texas and Georgia on opposite sides of the bracket.. but maybe that is wrong..
Unlikely because no one would want to watch that game a 3rd time in the Natty
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:03 am to BigBro
quote:
Texas is 4-1 against current Top 30 Sagarin and Massey teams. Imo, that's probably more accurate than an AP or Coaches Poll that mostly just looks at wins and losses.
When has anyone ever used top 30. Lol
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:05 am to BigBro
Texas has nothing to worry about though. Just like Bama you will get the benefit of the doubt because you draw eyeballs. It is our greatest burden and our greatest strength
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:05 am to jryanw
quote:
When has anyone ever used top 30. Lol
Sagarin uses it.. he has a Top 10 record and Top 30 record..
3-1 vs Top 20 teams if that works better for you.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:06 am to BigBro
quote:
I think they will try to put Texas and Georgia on opposite sides of the bracket.. but maybe that is wrong..
It would make sense to do all they can in the seeding process to avoid rematches until the Final Four semis at the earliest. If two teams from the same conference battle their way through the field and meet in the title game, then so be it. Football Darwin cheers.
That said, the CFP has never been known for being pragmatic in their decision-making. The mock-up of current standings that ESPN released last night (if the bracket began today) would have Georgia having to host Indiana, likely face Bama in the quarters and Texas in the semis to get to the NCG.
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:06 am to BigBro
quote:
Sagarin uses it.. he has a Top 10 record and Top 30 record..
We haven’t used Sagarin since the BCS days
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:10 am to jryanw
quote:
We haven’t used Sagarin since the BCS days
Perhaps you haven't, but I think it's a great tool to measure teams.. it isn't perfect, but I believe it gets teams in the right bucket.. + or - about 5 spots.
Notre Dame for example shouldn't be #1.. but Top 6 would be accurate imo.
Same for Texas and Oregon.
He has Alabama at #5 and Alabama is probably a Top 10 team.
Not perfect.. but it's a good measuring stick if you know how to use it.
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