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FPI projections for top SEC teams
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:31 pm
I wonder how good the FPI has been at predicting outcomes preseason. It seems to get better as the season goes on for sure. It loves LSU right now and has LSU and UT pretty substantial favorites for Atlanta.
LSU (FPI favored in every game, none even that close)
FPI Rank: 2
Wisconsin (84.5%)
Jacksonville St (98.8%)
MSU (88.6%)
Auburn (71.2%)
Missouri (94.3%)
Florida (71.1%)
Southern Miss (98.2%)
Ole Miss (73.5%)
Alabama (65.7%)
Arkansas (77.2%)
South Alabama (99.5%)
Tex A&M (67.4%)
Chance of winning out: 5.3%
Chance of winning SEC: 32%
SOS Rank: 10
Tennessee (FPI favored in every game)
FPI Rank: 5
App St (95.1%)
Va Tech (87.7%)
Ohio (98.5%)
Florida (79.2%)
Georgia (55.8%)
Tex A&M (59.3%)
Alabama (58.9%)
South Carolina (88.7%)
Tennessee Tech (99.8%)
UK (93.8%)
Missouri (92.5%)
Vandy (85.9%)
Chance of winning out 4.5%
Chance of winning SEC 29.8%
SOS Rank: 35
Alabama (FPI favored in 10 of 12 games):
FPI Rank: 6
USC (64.3%)
WKU (94.1%)
Ole Miss (51.2%)
Kent St (98.8%)
UK (93.8%)
Ark (71.2%)
UT (41.1%)
Tex A&M (72.5%)
LSU (34.3% - damn, forfeit now?)
MSU (84.7%)
Chattanooga (99.0%)
AU (77.7%)
Chance of winning out 0.6%
Chance of winning conference 12.4%
SOS Rank: 4
Ole Miss (FPI favored in 9 of 12 games)
FPI Rank: 7
FSU (29.5%)
Wofford (99.3%)
Alabama (48.8%)
UGA (62.3%)
Memphis (95.1%)
Arkansas (67.0%)
LSU (26.5%)
AU (71.1%)
Georgia Southern (95.6%)
Tex A&M (50.6%)
Vandy (80.4%)
MSU (79.3%)
Chance of winning out 0.1%
Chance of winning SEC 6.5%
SOS Rank: 2
Georgia (favored 10 out 12):
FPI Rank: 10
UNC (61.9%)
Nicholls St (99.9%)
Missouri (77.3%)
Ole Miss (37.7%)
Tennessee (44.2%)
South Carolina (79.7%)
Vanderbilt (87.1%)
Florida (60.0%)
UK (81.9%)
AU (67.5%)
La Lafayette (97.9%)
GT (86.1%)
Chance of winning out 0.5%
Chance of winning SEC 11.9%
SOS Rank: 16
Tex A&M:
FPI Rank: 14
Favored in 7/12 (not favored Auburn, UT, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.1%
Chance of winning SEC: 2.1%
SOS Rank: 12
Auburn:
FPI Rank: 17
Favored 6/12 (not favored Clemson, LSU, MSU, Ole Miss, UGA, Bama)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 1.2%
SOS Rank: 6
Florida:
FPI Rank: 18
Favored in 7/12 (not favored UT, LSU, UGA, Ark, FSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 3.1%
SOS Rank: 52
Arkansas:
FPI Rank: 25
Favored 5/12 (not favored TCU, Tex A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, AU, LSU, MSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.5%
SOS Rank: 7
MSU:
FPI Rank: 31
Favored in 8/12 (not favored LSU, Tex A&M, Bama, Ole Miss)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.3%
SOS Rank: 32
Vandy:
FPI Rank: 49
Favored in 4/12 (not favored in GT, UF, UK, UGA, AU, Missouri, Ole Miss, UT)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 14
Missouri:
FPI Rank: 50
Favored in 5/12 (not favored WVU, UGA, LSU, UF, South Carolina, UT, Ark)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 33
South Carolina:
FPI Rank: 53
Favored in 4/12 (not favored Vandy, MSU, UK, Tex A&M, UGA, UT, UF, Clemson)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 31
Kentucky:
FPI Rank: 56
Favored in 5/12 (not favored UF, Bama, MSU, Missouri, UGA, UT, Louisville)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.0%
SOS Rank: 37
LSU (FPI favored in every game, none even that close)
FPI Rank: 2
Wisconsin (84.5%)
Jacksonville St (98.8%)
MSU (88.6%)
Auburn (71.2%)
Missouri (94.3%)
Florida (71.1%)
Southern Miss (98.2%)
Ole Miss (73.5%)
Alabama (65.7%)
Arkansas (77.2%)
South Alabama (99.5%)
Tex A&M (67.4%)
Chance of winning out: 5.3%
Chance of winning SEC: 32%
SOS Rank: 10
Tennessee (FPI favored in every game)
FPI Rank: 5
App St (95.1%)
Va Tech (87.7%)
Ohio (98.5%)
Florida (79.2%)
Georgia (55.8%)
Tex A&M (59.3%)
Alabama (58.9%)
South Carolina (88.7%)
Tennessee Tech (99.8%)
UK (93.8%)
Missouri (92.5%)
Vandy (85.9%)
Chance of winning out 4.5%
Chance of winning SEC 29.8%
SOS Rank: 35
Alabama (FPI favored in 10 of 12 games):
FPI Rank: 6
USC (64.3%)
WKU (94.1%)
Ole Miss (51.2%)
Kent St (98.8%)
UK (93.8%)
Ark (71.2%)
UT (41.1%)
Tex A&M (72.5%)
LSU (34.3% - damn, forfeit now?)
MSU (84.7%)
Chattanooga (99.0%)
AU (77.7%)
Chance of winning out 0.6%
Chance of winning conference 12.4%
SOS Rank: 4
Ole Miss (FPI favored in 9 of 12 games)
FPI Rank: 7
FSU (29.5%)
Wofford (99.3%)
Alabama (48.8%)
UGA (62.3%)
Memphis (95.1%)
Arkansas (67.0%)
LSU (26.5%)
AU (71.1%)
Georgia Southern (95.6%)
Tex A&M (50.6%)
Vandy (80.4%)
MSU (79.3%)
Chance of winning out 0.1%
Chance of winning SEC 6.5%
SOS Rank: 2
Georgia (favored 10 out 12):
FPI Rank: 10
UNC (61.9%)
Nicholls St (99.9%)
Missouri (77.3%)
Ole Miss (37.7%)
Tennessee (44.2%)
South Carolina (79.7%)
Vanderbilt (87.1%)
Florida (60.0%)
UK (81.9%)
AU (67.5%)
La Lafayette (97.9%)
GT (86.1%)
Chance of winning out 0.5%
Chance of winning SEC 11.9%
SOS Rank: 16
Tex A&M:
FPI Rank: 14
Favored in 7/12 (not favored Auburn, UT, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.1%
Chance of winning SEC: 2.1%
SOS Rank: 12
Auburn:
FPI Rank: 17
Favored 6/12 (not favored Clemson, LSU, MSU, Ole Miss, UGA, Bama)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 1.2%
SOS Rank: 6
Florida:
FPI Rank: 18
Favored in 7/12 (not favored UT, LSU, UGA, Ark, FSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 3.1%
SOS Rank: 52
Arkansas:
FPI Rank: 25
Favored 5/12 (not favored TCU, Tex A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, AU, LSU, MSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.5%
SOS Rank: 7
MSU:
FPI Rank: 31
Favored in 8/12 (not favored LSU, Tex A&M, Bama, Ole Miss)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.3%
SOS Rank: 32
Vandy:
FPI Rank: 49
Favored in 4/12 (not favored in GT, UF, UK, UGA, AU, Missouri, Ole Miss, UT)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 14
Missouri:
FPI Rank: 50
Favored in 5/12 (not favored WVU, UGA, LSU, UF, South Carolina, UT, Ark)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 33
South Carolina:
FPI Rank: 53
Favored in 4/12 (not favored Vandy, MSU, UK, Tex A&M, UGA, UT, UF, Clemson)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.1%
SOS Rank: 31
Kentucky:
FPI Rank: 56
Favored in 5/12 (not favored UF, Bama, MSU, Missouri, UGA, UT, Louisville)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.0%
SOS Rank: 37
18
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:34 pm to elposter
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:38 pm to elposter
quote:
LSU (FPI favored in every game, none even that close)
FPI Rank: 2
Wisconsin (84.5%)
Jacksonville St (98.8%)
MSU (88.6%)
Auburn (71.2%)
Missouri (94.3%)
Florida (71.1%)
Southern Miss (98.2%)
Ole Miss (73.5%)
Alabama (65.7%)
Arkansas (77.2%)
South Alabama (99.5%)
Tex A&M (67.4%)
50%
This post was edited on 7/6/16 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:39 pm to tigerfan in bamaland
This gets money moving. If you made vegas set a line today bama would be favored in every game. UT will be dogs to UF. July lines mean absolutely nothing.
BTW, Bama is also Vegas's favorite to win the national title.
BTW, Bama is also Vegas's favorite to win the national title.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:39 pm to elposter
FPI puts far too much emphasis on home field advantage imo. Tennessee has a much better shot of beating Georgia in Athens compared to Alabama in Knoxville imo
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:42 pm to elposter
quote:
Arkansas:
FPI Rank: 25
Favored 5/12 (not favored TCU, Tex A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, AU, LSU, MSU)
Chance of winning out: 0.0%
Chance of winning SEC: 0.5%
SOS Rank: 7
So, we have a chance, right?
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:44 pm to TouchdownTony
quote:
This gets money moving. If you made vegas set a line today bama would be favored in every game. UT will be dogs to UF. July lines mean absolutely nothing.
BTW, Bama is also Vegas's favorite to win the national title.
The FPI is a bit different than a Vegas betting line. Vegas betting lines are designed with bettors/public perception in mind (which does have some to do with the linemaker's view of the team, but also with how the linemaker's thinks the betting public views the team which can be different).
The FPI is not that. It's more of pure strength of team predictor relative to all other teams. Right now it obviously lacks data that it will have as the season progresses, but I think it is interesting.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:45 pm to elposter
Wow, was not expecting to get this much love
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:46 pm to TheDarrell McSteal
quote:
FPI puts far too much emphasis on home field advantage imo.
I tend to agree just based on anecdotal evidence. I imagine the weight they give to home field is statistically solid, but it does "seem" off.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:47 pm to blacknblu
quote:
So, we have a chance, right?
Booking hotel in Atlanta as we speak.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:48 pm to TouchdownTony
quote:
If you made vegas set a line today bama would be favored in every game.
agree
quote:disagree
UT will be dogs to UF.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:50 pm to TouchdownTony
thought I read somewhere on internet that vegas does have betting lines for the season and LSU is favored in every game on the schedule.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:52 pm to elposter
FPI was a joke regarding Bama last season. Even well into the season.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:58 pm to elposter
I know I am going to get plenty of downvotes from LSU fans, but Brandon Harris is still their QB right? Stop LF7, stop LSU. They are losing at least 2 games, maybe that is enough to sneak in to the SECCG.
Tennessee I agree with, they will be in the SECCG. Their schedule is just plain easy and perfect for them. They will lose one in the Bama/UF/UGA, but I do not know if they will lose 2.
Tennessee I agree with, they will be in the SECCG. Their schedule is just plain easy and perfect for them. They will lose one in the Bama/UF/UGA, but I do not know if they will lose 2.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 12:59 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
FPI was a joke regarding Bama last season. Even well into the season.
They evaluated their system pretty well in this article. It did pretty well:
LINK
quote:
Entering this season, we updated FPI’s game prediction model to include distance traveled, rest and game type (bowl, regular-season or conference championship game), which are factors that only strengthened FPI’s prediction accuracy.
The end result? The team FPI favored won 78 percent of FBS-only games this season, which placed FPI in the top 15 percent of the 68 systems tracked at predictiontracker.com. Going back further, the FPI favorite has won 75.4 percent of FBS games since 2005, which is a better percentage than the Vegas closing line (74.7 percent) during that time.
We know FPI is not only judged by how it performs in relation to other computer systems, but also by how it does compared to human game predictions. Over the course of the season, we tracked our ESPN colleagues’ game predictions. This includes any prediction on College GameDay, SEC Nation, ESPNU’s The Edge and various halftime shows.
We compared the analyst’s game picks apples-to-apples to FPI. In other words, how did FPI’s favorites do only on the games they picked? FPI “beat” 11 of the 12 analysts (good job, Greg McElroy), and overall when picking against the FPI favorite, the analysts were 78-137 -- incorrect 64 percent of the time.
There were certain teams that FPI had a grasp on and others that baffled the system. There were seven teams, including Clemson, Notre Dame and California, for which FPI had the correct favorite in all of their games this season. Add in another 33 teams for which the FPI favorite won all but one game, and the system had a very good understanding of about a third of the FBS.
On the other hand, there were five teams -- Oregon, Duke, Arkansas, Georgia State and Georgia Tech -- that won as FPI underdogs or lost as FPI favorites in more than half of their games. Many of those teams entered the season with high preseason expectations and then fluctuated in their performances throughout the year.
They did admit underestimating Alabama:
quote:
We aren’t afraid to admit our “misses” -- FPI underestimated Alabama. It saw that the Tide were returning three offensive starters (not returning a QB) and were set to play the toughest schedule in the nation. FPI gave Alabama a 5.4 percent chance to win the conference, which was at least a higher percentage than media darling Auburn (1.4 percent).
Posted on 7/6/16 at 1:01 pm to JuiceTerry
Looks like Bama was at 2, preseason last year. I guess it was a joke.
This post was edited on 7/6/16 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 7/6/16 at 1:01 pm to JuiceTerry
Link? Genuinely curious as to how FPI ended up vs. season results
Posted on 7/6/16 at 1:08 pm to tigerfan in bamaland
quote:
Looks like Bama was at 2, preseason last year. I guess it was a joke.
Yep, I just went back and looked. They had Alabama rated highly in terms of strength of team (represented by being ranked 2 as you note) but underestimated their win/loss record based on Alabama's SOS. In other words had them highly rated but didn't predict them to finish as high based on schedule.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 1:14 pm to CoachKlein
"We aren’t afraid to admit our “misses” -- FPI underestimated Alabama. It saw that the Tide were returning three offensive starters (not returning a QB) and were set to play the toughest schedule in the nation. FPI gave Alabama a 5.4 percent chance to win the conference,"
I can't find each game predictions, but I do remember they had Bama losing at least 3 or 4.
I'm not saying that it's an awful system, just that they whiffed on Bama last season.
This is a good summary
All of my valuable research for naught.. Thanks El!
I can't find each game predictions, but I do remember they had Bama losing at least 3 or 4.
I'm not saying that it's an awful system, just that they whiffed on Bama last season.
This is a good summary
All of my valuable research for naught.. Thanks El!
This post was edited on 7/6/16 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 7/6/16 at 1:17 pm to elposter
Got y'all right where we want you
quote:
Chance of winning SEC: 1.2%
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