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re: Does anyone else have an odd feeling that Merlins might actually win tomorrow?
Posted on 9/14/11 at 12:36 pm to Evolved Simian
Posted on 9/14/11 at 12:36 pm to Evolved Simian
Oh, heyell naw.
State better eat it's Wheaties- er Alpo...
State better eat it's Wheaties- er Alpo...
0
Posted on 9/14/11 at 12:44 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
The public is on LSU, the big money sharps are on MSU
This is pure speculation on your part
81% of the public is on LSU yet the line hasn't moved. Not hard to figure out why
ETA: Now lets look at Boise St. open as a 17.5 pt favorite. 76% of the public is on Boise, the line has moved accordingly to -19.5
LSU on the other hand sits at 81% and stands pat at -3
This post was edited on 9/14/11 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 9/14/11 at 12:47 pm to Evolved Simian
You know how you always get that awful feeling that LSU might lose? This season, after watching the first 2 games, I don't, the same as I didn't during the 2007 season.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:15 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
81% of the public is on LSU yet the line hasn't moved. Not hard to figure out why
ETA: Now lets look at Boise St. open as a 17.5 pt favorite. 76% of the public is on Boise, the line has moved accordingly to -19.5
LSU on the other hand sits at 81% and stands pat at -3
And where are you seeing this?
If you link me to some ESPN "who will win" poll, I'm going to laugh at you.
ETA: I have said over and over again that this is one of the toughest games on our schedule because it's on Thursday night, home opener, back against the wall, etc, etc. I just don't believe that you're so in tuned with vegas that you know how the "insiders" are betting vs joe public.
ETA 2: The only time a line really matters in terms of predictions is when a lot of the money comes in on one side and Vegas then moves the line in that teams favor to entice more betting on that team. That's clearly not happening here and the only thing the line is saying is that it will be a tough, hard fought game which anyone who knows anything about football would have told you anyway.
This post was edited on 9/14/11 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:20 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
That would be 2 years ago right? Yeah Im probably not gonna factor that into my reasoning on this game
I was pointing out your flawed reasoning on almost always betting the home team on Thursday, not comparing the teams of 2 years ago. This LSU team is better than the '09 team.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:20 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:23 pm to JonTheTigerFan
quote:
I was pointing out your flawed reasoning on almost always betting the home team on Thursday, not comparing the teams of 2 years ago. This LSU team is better than the '09 team.
Me and a buddy have been betting Thursday night home dogs for about 6 years now and the trend is roughly 65% or so that they cover. You can't pick and choose, you just do it. I just happen to love this play more than my normal blind play on a MAC team etc.
ETA: I've probably talked this one up too much by now and LSU will roll by 20 pts., but regardless I'll take 65% any day of the week
This post was edited on 9/14/11 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:24 pm to Remy74
quote:
Make LSU drive the length of the field and Miss St wins the game as LSU has won games the past 2-3 years due to FPA (Field Position Advantage) as a result of turnovers and special teams. Neutralize FPA and teams can beat LSU.
This may be shocking, but LSU could have something to do with the field position advantage.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:26 pm to MandevilleLSUTiger
Us winning by a field goal is probably about right. I'm not seeing anything in those numbers to indicate anything to be worried about above what I was worried about already.
How much did you put on State, hubb?
How much did you put on State, hubb?
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:26 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
ETA: I've probably talked this one up too much by now and LSU will roll by 20 pts., but regardless I'll take 65% any day of the week
I hear ya.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:28 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
ETA 2: The only time a line really matters in terms of predictions is when a lot of the money comes in on one side and Vegas then moves the line in that teams favor to entice more betting on that team. That's clearly not happening here and the only thing the line is saying is that it will be a tough, hard fought game which anyone who knows anything about football would have told you anyway.
81% of the public is on it and it's standing pat @ -3. There has to be a lot of money on that 19% to keep the line from moving to 4 or even 5 pts like it should.
Joe Public isn't laying six figures, the 19% is. There will be heavy action on this game all day tomorrow and if it moves to -2 then yall are in trouble is all i'm saying
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:28 pm to Evolved Simian
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:30 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
How much did you put on State, hubb?
$100. Im not a baller
I just enjoy betting football and decided to take it more seriously after getting my arse handed to me in college days. I typically bet about 4 college games and a couple NFL games every week. Nothing to crazy
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:36 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:Nah...some gamblers are in trouble, not the fans. WE got Lesticles, baby!
There will be heavy action on this game all day tomorrow and if it moves to -2 then yall are in trouble is all i'm saying
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:41 pm to TigerWoody
Gonna be a hell of a Thursday night matchup either way. Looking forward to it.Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:41 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
81% of the public is on it and it's standing pat @ -3. There has to be a lot of money on that 19% to keep the line from moving to 4 or even 5 pts like it should.
Joe Public isn't laying six figures, the 19% is. There will be heavy action on this game all day tomorrow and if it moves to -2 then yall are in trouble is all i'm saying
Again, that doesn't really say all that much to me. If they were moving it to 2 or 1 1/2 then i would be concerned, but just the fact that they haven't moved it to 4 or 5 doesn't mean there's anything extra to be worried about.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:42 pm to Hubbhogg
quote:
Gonna be a hell of a Thursday night matchup either way. Looking forward to it.
Win or lose Friday will be a brutal day at work. :redeyes
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:43 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Does anyone else have an odd feeling that Merlins might actually win tomorrow?
no I think LSU will win.
They're better
They had 2 weeks to prepare instead of 3 days.
They had a big win instead of an emotional 1 inch loss.
Posted on 9/14/11 at 1:49 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Again, that doesn't really say all that much to me. If they were moving it to 2 or 1 1/2 then i would be concerned, but just the fact that they haven't moved it to 4 or 5 doesn't mean there's anything extra to be worried about.
True. When the action starts going the wrong way is when you know something is up. Standing pat still makes me like my play though. LSU by 2 is fine with me.
Did you check out the link. Pretty interesting to see the game by game betting % IMO
ETA: I've also got Clemson over Aubie, another 82% roady. I like my chances to at least split those two games.
This post was edited on 9/14/11 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 9/14/11 at 2:16 pm to Evolved Simian
NO!!!!!!!
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