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Can someone explain the Sagarin Ratings?
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:20 pm
Sagarin Ratings for Dummies, please.
I don't understand them. Auburn is rated #6 with a predictor of #15. TCU is #2 in both.
WTF does this mean?
LINK
I don't understand them. Auburn is rated #6 with a predictor of #15. TCU is #2 in both.
WTF does this mean?
LINK
This post was edited on 11/1/10 at 12:22 pm
5
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:23 pm to woopiginaustin
Sagarin Rating Systems per Wikipedia
Its the best I could do...
Its the best I could do...
quote:
Sagarin, like the developers of many other sports rating systems, does not divulge the exact methodology behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses, with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system, the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems, teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:29 pm to woopiginaustin
quote:
However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
Basically Auburn has been getting by on the skin of their teeth in many of the games and been pretty lucky so they think it's only a matter of time before Auburn reverts back to the mean. For example, Auburn is outscoring opponents by an average score of 40.0-24.3, a differential of 15.7 PPG. Alabama is outscoring teams by an average score of 34.3-12.5, an average margin of 21.8 PPG. Although Alabama hasn't been better than Auburn, they've been more dominant and Sagarin believes that will show by the end of the season.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:38 pm to woopiginaustin
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:38 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Basically Auburn has been getting by on the skin of their teeth in many of the games and been pretty lucky so they think it's only a matter of time before Auburn reverts back to the mean. For example, Auburn is outscoring opponents by an average score of 40.0-24.3, a differential of 15.7 PPG. Alabama is outscoring teams by an average score of 34.3-12.5, an average margin of 21.8 PPG. Although Alabama hasn't been better than Auburn, they've been more dominant and Sagarin believes that will show by the end of the season.
Auburn has played a more difficult schedule than bammer so far too. bammer's most difficult games have yet to be played.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:39 pm to beatbammer
When I see Mizzou at #6 I scratch my head and wonder how accurate Mr. sagarin is.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:40 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Basically Auburn has been getting by on the skin of their teeth in many of the games and been pretty lucky so they think it's only a matter of time before Auburn reverts back to the mean. For example, Auburn is outscoring opponents by an average score of 40.0-24.3, a differential of 15.7 PPG. Alabama is outscoring teams by an average score of 34.3-12.5, an average margin of 21.8 PPG. Although Alabama hasn't been better than Auburn, they've been more dominant and Sagarin believes that will show by the end of the season.
To quote a famous movie: "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
Who the frick takes objective data, then tries to turn that into a subjective opinion? It is what it is. If you want to, you can look at the numbers and find proof of the existence of Bear Bryant living in clouds, but that doesn't necessarily make it fact.
You don't take into account that up until this point Auburn has played a more difficult schedule. Alabama has played all of its cupcakes, while Auburn still has one to go ... but better to make the argument that bama is "more dominant," right?
Posts like bench's just show the glaring flaw in human evaluation.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:46 pm to GenTso
Than give me your explanation why Bama is ranked so much higher than Auburn using the predictor system. Using the website's own words "However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters." Using the score margin, Bama has done much better than Auburn. I'm just citing facts here. I've said many times that Bama hasn't proven anything against good competition and that Auburn has played a tougher schedule than them.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 12:58 pm to Bench McElroy
I love Vllanova a 1aa team ahead of Notre Dame
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:04 pm to GenTso
quote:Dude...he showed why the Sagarin has Bama higher than Auburn. He didn't make a case for Bama, he explained why Sagarin does. Dumbass.
Who the frick takes objective data, then tries to turn that into a subjective opinion? It is what it is. If you want to, you can look at the numbers and find proof of the existence of Bear Bryant living in clouds, but that doesn't necessarily make it fact.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:08 pm to BamaDixi
Don't pay them (rankings) any attention, just gives them credibility they don't deserve.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:23 pm to GenTso
Jesus Christ you're an idiot. He was explaining the ranking, dumbass.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:32 pm to GenTso
Damn dude - overreact much?
Posted on 11/1/10 at 2:20 pm to woopiginaustin
They only use ELO-Chess in the BCS formula because it only relies on W-L record and strength of schedule. Predictor uses margin of victory, which means it is biased by "style points."
Posted on 11/1/10 at 3:30 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Than give me your explanation why Bama is ranked so much higher than Auburn using the predictor system. Using the website's own words "However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters." Using the score margin, Bama has done much better than Auburn. I'm just citing facts here. I've said many times that Bama hasn't proven anything against good competition and that Auburn has played a tougher schedule than them.
First of all, I was wrong about the cupcakes: Both Alabama and Auburn have one left (forgot about Georgia State).
quote:
Although Alabama hasn't been better than Auburn, they've been more dominant and Sagarin believes that will show by the end of the season.
I agreed with most of your original post. What got me was that the last part quoted above. You made it sound like Sagarin's formula takes into account things that have not yet happened; used objective data to form what sounds like a subjective opinion -- "Sagarin believes that will show by the end of the season."
Sagarin doesn't believe anything.
You took that data and formulated a predicted outcome using simple math, which is what the ratings system is intended for.
You could also add, "assuming all things remain equal" to the end of the quoted statement above because a 35-0 Auburn win over whoever would change the predicted outcome. In other words: "what Sagarin believes" this week might be completely different next week.
I admit being wrong.
And see what you were saying now, all Billy Madison quotes to the contrary, but you weren't exactly clear you were referring to a math model's predicted outcome and not an opinion.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 3:56 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Than give me your explanation why Bama is ranked so much higher than Auburn using the predictor system. Using the website's own words "However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters." Using the score margin, Bama has done much better than Auburn. I'm just citing facts here. I've said many times that Bama hasn't proven anything against good competition and that Auburn has played a tougher schedule than them.
Because Sagarin is a huge tool and his pole is one of the worst in college football.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 4:32 pm to woopiginaustin
The predictor means they predict that Auburn will lose to Alabama. That is why Alabama is up to 3 in the predictor. Also factors in the ranking of opponents left on schedule.
Posted on 11/1/10 at 4:34 pm to MattP598
quote:
Because Sagarin is a huge tool and his pole is one of the worst in college football.
freud wants a word with you
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