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re: Blue chip ratios for first year coaches

Posted on 7/11/24 at 9:07 am to
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 9:07 am to
quote:

won't say he was necessarily set to win the natty, but his BCR in 2016 should've yielded better results than 8-5.


Sure, but only if you ignore the flaws of solely looking at BCR, which doesn't account for things experience or position spread.

Most of that talent on that team was isolated to similar positions (Chubb/Michel) or younger players not meant to excel so early (Eason/Hardman).

Also if you ignore the purpose of year 1 in the Saban/kirby model, which plants seeds for subsequent seasons. Crazy how similar their year 1 and year 2 were.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

part of the reason why they score a TD on a 50 yard pass 2 drives later.


"Part of"? Interesting choice of words. Anyways, unlike my take, your take is nothing but an unproven theory and you have provided ZERO factual or analytical support for it.
This post was edited on 7/11/24 at 12:29 pm
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

That "21 point explosion" was a total of 4 drives and 15 plays


Your picture doesn’t include me saying what you claim I said, so looks like this is yet another case of you sucking at reading.

Posted by RollingwiththeTide
Member since Oct 2020
5993 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 4:40 pm to
The Stats on Bama and DeBoer are kind of misleading. DeBoer walked into a great situation and then had most of his key players walk out and transfer. Bama got some talent back but the Bama roster was picked apart after Saban left and DeBoer was hired. Yes it is correct that DeBoer walked into a great situation but he promptly lost a lot of it too.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

then had most of his key players walk out and transfer.


Downs, bond, and who else?
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 5:59 pm to
quote:

part of the reason why they score a TD on a 50 yard pass 2 drives later.


This gets us back to another point you couldn’t refute…

Lets review the 9 plays directly before the game changing ST penalty, just to see how things were going:

1 yard run
-1 yard run
Incomplete pass

-2 yard pass
3 yard run
-9 yard sack

5 yard run
-4 yard run
Incomplete pass

5 carries for 4 yards
4 pass plays for -11 yards (hardly "opened up"as you put it)

Total: 9 plays for -7 yards

Turns out all of that 3 FG drive success didn't suddenly open up the AU passing game as you incorrectly asserted. This proves another idea of yours to be wrong.
Posted by HighTide_ATL
Member since Aug 2020
2257 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 6:01 pm to
quote:

Most of that talent on that team was isolated to similar positions (Chubb/Michel) or younger players not meant to excel so early (Eason/Hardman).


That’s 4 players

4/85 =/= most of 51% lol

quote:

Also if you ignore the purpose of year 1 in the Saban/kirby model, which plants seeds for subsequent seasons. Crazy how similar their year 1 and year 2 were.


Saban had to takeover a program that hadn’t played in conf CG in about 8 years, with a roster BCR of likely less than 30% (maybe 1 five star?), and the program was immediately hit by sanctions for shenanigans that happened prior to him arriving

Plus he had to contend with a legitimate in-state/intra conference rival that was on a 5 year win-streak

Other than that both had relatively similar outcomes I suppose lol

Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 7:03 pm to
quote:


That’s 4 players

4/85 =/= most of 51% lol


That was just quickly off the top of my head. The point isnt isolated to those 4 players. The roster average of 89 backs this idea up. It was VERY top heavy. Point is, the roster was lacking in many areas, which we knew after 2015.

quote:

Other than that both had relatively similar outcomes I suppose lol



Yep. The record in year 1 is irrelevant when you builld a program in the manner those 2 guys choose to do.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
26026 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 8:01 pm to
Speaking for this year here’s the current listing top 8

Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
39402 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 8:06 pm to
quote:



Your picture doesn’t include me saying what you claim I said, so looks like this is yet another case of you sucking at reading.



It's no surprise you're dishonest and want to play on semantics with a single adjective.

But I and anyone who reads it knows the truth, so enjoy your fantasy.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/11/24 at 8:13 pm to
quote:

It's no surprise you're dishonest and want to play on semantics with a single adjective.


Shocked you are focused on that while ignoring the point being made with those 9 plays that destroy your narrative.

This is the 2nd time you have run from that point.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

It's no surprise you're dishonest and want to play on semantics with a single adjective.


Lets just say success is relative:

- 3 FG's are successful (I objected to the word VERY, which is an important distinction), but 3 TD's are FAR more successful.

- 3 FG's made the game 9-7 (the RB played a big and direct role).

- The 3 TD's made the game 30-7 (the RB did not play a big and direct role)

- 21 > 9 (you previously ran from this point before without comment).
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

It's no surprise you're dishonest


quote:

And this was about the time when I figured out you were a complete dumbass.


Glad you brought this up as this was one of your biggest contradictions…..

You claimed "Yards, aka field position, absolutely wins games."

And yet you completely downplay the impact of the UGA ST mistakes, which involved 80 yards of field position changes in 12 minutes of clock, which is an absolutely insane stat.

Sometimes just 15 is enough to change the direction of a game, but here we are talking about 80 yards, which was more than the rb had in those 3 amazing FG drives..
Posted by HighTide_ATL
Member since Aug 2020
2257 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 2:51 pm to
Bro triggered you so bad you kept coming back to respond to the same post lol
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 4:29 pm to
Always finish a job. Quitting is for losers.
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
70418 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 4:41 pm to
I don’t know what the OP is trying to argue. I don’t even think he knows. No one is doubting that Kirby Smart is a great coach. However, if the OP thinks that Smart walked into a dumpster fire or less than ideal situation at Georgia then he is kidding himself. Richt had definitely gotten lazy but the wheels were still solidly in place in Athens with no real danger of them falling off.

However, if he’s trying to argue that DeBoer walked into a better situation in Tuscaloosa than Smart did in Athens then I 100% agree.
This post was edited on 7/16/24 at 4:42 pm
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
40842 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

but the wheels were still solidly in place in Athens with no real danger of them falling off.


It was the worst shape for our program since 1995-1996
Posted by HighTide_ATL
Member since Aug 2020
2257 posts
Posted on 7/16/24 at 7:57 pm to
Idk man 2010 was pretty damn tragic

That being said if the “worst state of your program” means having a more talented roster than over 90% of the country I’m still not convinced it’s a bad situation to be in

Then again maybe some ppl just need everything going in their favor to be successful
This post was edited on 7/16/24 at 7:58 pm
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
70418 posts
Posted on 7/17/24 at 4:47 am to
quote:

It was the worst shape for our program since 1995-1996



Yeah...you're going to have a hard time selling that considering Georgia had just had back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2014 and 2015.
Posted by URGatorB8
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2018
87 posts
Posted on 7/17/24 at 5:32 am to
Those number probably include guys who never made it to campus like Chris Steele. There are probably a couple that I can't remember off the top of my head.
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