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Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:30 am to CoonassBulldog
I think Bama wins by ~28
And any time the public loads up on something (I.e. WVU against TTU), it's always a good plan to bet the other way
And any time the public loads up on something (I.e. WVU against TTU), it's always a good plan to bet the other way
This post was edited on 10/25/12 at 1:34 am
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:40 am to HoLeInOnEr05
and fwiw.....Coonass is wrong(yeah i know...real shocker).
It's currently sitting at 62% MSU which is basically a perfect percentage for them. Then you have to take into consideration that the betting public who ISN'T your common idiot has yet to put any money on the game as of yet.
Think about it.....how fricking stupid do you have to be to put a ton of money on a game three days before it happens. What happens if one team's starting QB gets injured tomorrow and your bet is locked? 90% of bets happen on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Vegas laughs at people who think they're smarter than them.....and if a person actually is smarter than Vegas, they end up working for Vegas.
Disclaimer: I understand that FatassDog completely lacks things such as logical thinking due to a lack of a cerebral cortex so I'll explain this simply for him.....
I'm not saying Bama will cover this spread nor am I saying Vegas this so. I'm saying he's an idiot for thinking he knows more than Vegas.
It's currently sitting at 62% MSU which is basically a perfect percentage for them. Then you have to take into consideration that the betting public who ISN'T your common idiot has yet to put any money on the game as of yet.
Think about it.....how fricking stupid do you have to be to put a ton of money on a game three days before it happens. What happens if one team's starting QB gets injured tomorrow and your bet is locked? 90% of bets happen on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Vegas laughs at people who think they're smarter than them.....and if a person actually is smarter than Vegas, they end up working for Vegas.
Disclaimer: I understand that FatassDog completely lacks things such as logical thinking due to a lack of a cerebral cortex so I'll explain this simply for him.....
I'm not saying Bama will cover this spread nor am I saying Vegas this so. I'm saying he's an idiot for thinking he knows more than Vegas.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:46 am to pankReb
Damn, You just laid some serious pipe 
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:47 am to bamafan425
quote:
And yet the line isn't moving from 24. Vegas must be content with the public being on State.
That would mean the money was heavy on Bama when the line was at 23.5 . Once they get about even money bet on both sides they'll adjust the line to keep it there then make there dough off the vig.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:49 am to Carson123987
Vegas is grinding the shite out of the grinders, they mad.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:50 am to drweb66
quote:
That would mean the money was heavy on Bama when the line was at 23.5 . Once they get about even money bet on both sides they'll adjust the line to keep it there then make there dough off the vig.
If they even move it. Vegas doesn't give a shite which game the money comes from as long as it all adds up. They might keep it where it is even if they break even or marginally lose. They could move a completely different line and come out equally as profitable.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:52 am to pankReb
btw....when I mentioned that only a complete idiot bets on a game 3 days before kickoff....I didn't read the entire thread where fatass mentions this..
quote:
I already have- put 750 on it yesterday.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:59 am to drweb66
The line opened at 24. It has moved off that number a few times. Up to 25 and down to 23.5.
Public money doesn't necessarily move the lines. In fact, it's usually sharp money that does the moving.
Public money doesn't necessarily move the lines. In fact, it's usually sharp money that does the moving.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 2:00 am to pankReb
Lawdy. 73% of bettors are gonna lose money
Posted on 10/25/12 at 2:05 am to Lee County Tiger
I think you'll see a move on this line Saturday and it'll close around 22 or 21.5. Vegas won't let it get down below three scores.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 2:06 am to bamafan425
20.5 IMO
Posted on 10/25/12 at 2:10 am to Carson123987
quote:
And any time the public loads up on something (I.e. WVU against TTU), it's always a good plan to bet the other way.
While I would normally agree, I'm still going to take State in this instance.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 2:35 am to pankReb
quote:
btw....when I mentioned that only a complete idiot bets on a game 3 days before kickoff....I didn't read the entire thread where fatass mentions this..
quote:
I already have- put 750 on it yesterday.
You're crackin me up tonight, dude
Posted on 10/25/12 at 3:37 am to pankReb
Agree...
Posted on 10/25/12 at 3:38 am to pankReb
Yeah, that guy is either an idiot, or he's full of shite. I'm going with both...
Posted on 10/25/12 at 5:24 am to pankReb
quote:
And any time the public loads up on something (I.e. WVU against TTU), it's always a good plan to bet the other way
quote:pankReb = Da truth
how fricking stupid do you have to be to put a ton of money on a game three days before it happens. What happens if one team's starting QB gets injured tomorrow and your bet is locked? 90% of bets happen on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Vegas laughs at people who think they're smarter than them.....and if a person actually is smarter than Vegas, they end up working for Vegas.
ETA: Coonass done put 750 on it a week before the game is even played. Christmas may not be as sweet as you think it's gonna be.
Except for the guys in Vegas.
This post was edited on 10/25/12 at 5:28 am
Posted on 10/25/12 at 5:54 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
Betting Trends- 73% of betting public taking State +24
Wrong. 73% of money at two online sportsbooks is going on MSU. Considering these two online books are a drop in the bucket on total money wagered(CFB), your statement is flawed.
Side note, these two online books are infamous for terrible customer service. There are absolutely no sharp bettors that will put a dime on these two sites. In other words, your basing OP numbers on a relatively handful of bettors, none of which are big/sharp bettors.
quote:
I thought the Gumps said they put it at 24 to get even money bet on both sides?
That's the general idea, but rarely the case or the desired outcome. Vegas almost always takes sides on games. The biggest fear in Vegas is putting out a bad line and getting pounded by the sharps. Joe Blow betting ten dollars a pop does not matter.
This post was edited on 10/25/12 at 5:57 am
Posted on 10/25/12 at 6:21 am to CoonassBulldog
So now you're claiming moral victories, against the spread, before the game, with bad information... Cool.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 6:26 am to Bwbama
Also,
73% of bets =/= 73% of money bet.
In addition to all of the other caveats posted by people in this thread.
73% of bets =/= 73% of money bet.
In addition to all of the other caveats posted by people in this thread.
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