re: Arkansas Fans: respond to Brad Edwards latest comment

Yeah, Bama fans need VA Tech and Stanford to keep winning and keep that buffer between them and OSU in the human polls for sure.

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Things fall their way and they get to #3 in the human polls and watch out.

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if they move up to #4 in the human polls after LSU beats arky without even playing than bama fans should start getting nervous

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I do think an Arkansas blowout changes things a tad. Most of my replies have been based on a close arkansas win.

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Let's say that it is a blowout. How much of the 1st place votes would Arkansas need in order to sneak into 2nd place in the BCS?

How much of a bump will we get in the BCS from playing LSU (SoS)? Isn't there some kind of road win multiplier that helps too?

If a blowout, then both you and Bama are in the same position - Only OSU could overtake 1 of you - y'all would both be big OU, Va Tech and Stanford fans.

In this hypothetical, it doesn't even have to be a blow out. If Arky wins 31-23 or something like that, it's over for LSU. The only way any of this ridiculous talk has any chance of happening, which even then is slim, is for it to be a VERY close OT type game, which is obviously possible. Even then though, the voting would still go 70% to Arky, 15% to LSU, and 15% to Bama (If as LSU fans say it's about the entire body of work).

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Even then though, the voting would still go 70% to Arky, 15% to LSU, and 15% to Bama (If as LSU fans say it's about the entire body of work).

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No it wouldn't - the end of the year voting is about the entire body of work. Why do you think Arky would suddenly get all these votes over Bama, after Bama stomped them?

The votes would all be very close with each team getting somewhere b/t 20-40% of the votes.

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Why do you think Arky would suddenly get all these votes over Bama, after Bama stomped them?

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My reasoning is that if it's truly about the entire body of work, Arky would obviously be the hot team and improving, who's only loss was to Bama early in the year with a bunch of injuries.

It's 100% possible. Decent odds too. Except for the back in part. Lame attempt at a flame.

Basically,

Arkansas has just the smallest chance of the SECCG. But still an ok chance at the BCSNCG.

LSU has a very good chance of the SECCG and BCSNCG with a win in the SECCG.

Surely you guys can see where it's possible LSU can finish in the Top 2, right? Yall do realize that it would be a 3-way tie, right?

If Arkansas beats LSU on Friday and Alabama beats Auburn on Saturday, LSU/Arkansas/Alabama would end up in a 3-way tie in the SEC West, all with identical 11-1 (7-1) records. LSU beat Alabama, Alabama beat Arkansas, and Arkansas beat LSU. The human voters will have to take a step back and review the entire resumes of the three tied teams.

Below is all the information one would need to break a 3-way tie between LSU (11-1), Arkansas (11-1), and Alabama (11-1).



3-WAY TIE SCENARIOS
*listed from most likely to least likely:

-If BCS rankings end up LSU-Bama-Arky...LSU goes to SECCG
-If BCS rankings end up Bama-LSU-Arky...LSU goes to SECCG
-If BCS rankings end up Bama-Arky-LSU...Alabama goes to SECCG
-If BCS rankings end up Arky-Bama-LSU...Alabama goes to SECCG
-If BCS rankings end up LSU-Arky-Bama...Arkansas goes to SECCG
-If BCS rankings end up Arky-LSU-Bama...Arkansas goes to SECCG

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SCHEDULES/RESULTS

Alabama 11-1 (7-1)
vs Kent State W 48-7
@ #23 Penn State W 27-11
vs North Texas W 41-0
vs #14 Arkansas W 38-14
@ #12 Florida W 38-10
vs Vanderbilt W 34-0
@ Ole Miss W 52-7
vs Tennessee W 37-6
vs #1 LSU L 9-6 OT
@ Mississippi State W 24-7
vs Georgia Southern W 45-21
@ Auburn W

Arkansas 11-1 (7-1)
vs Missouri State W 51-7
vs New Mexico W 52-3
vs Troy W 38-28
@ #3 Alabama L 38-14
vs #14 Texas A&M* W 42-38
vs #15 Auburn W 38-14
@ Ole Miss W 29-24
@ Vanderbilt W 31-28
vs #9 South Carolina W 44-28
vs Tennessee W 49-7
vs Mississippi State W 44-17
@ #1 LSU W

LSU 11-1 (7-1)
vs #3 Oregon* W 40-27
vs Northwestern State W 49-3
@ #25 Mississippi State W 19-6
@ #16 West Virginia W 47-21
vs Kentucky W 35-7
vs #17 Florida W 41-11
@ Tennessee W 38-7
vs #20 Auburn W 45-10
@ #2 Alabama W 9-6 OT
vs Western Kentucky W 42-9
@ Ole Miss W 52-3
vs #3 Arkansas L

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STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
NCAA: Strength of Schedule Rankings

1. LSU - #5 nationally, opponents are 61-38 (.616 winning percentage)
2. Alabama - #21 nationally, opponents are 58-43 (.574 winning percentage)
3. Arkansas - #36 nationally, opponents are 55-46 (.545 winning percentage)


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CONCLUSION

Based on these resumes, a reasonable person should come to the following conclusions:

1. LSU easily has the best overall resume, winning vs Oregon, @ West Virginia, and @ Alabama. LSU dominated 10 of the 12 teams it faced. LSU should be ranked the highest of the three teams.

2. Alabama throttled Arkansas, and played a slightly tougher schedule than the Hogs, winning @ Penn State and vs Arkansas. Alabama dominated 11 of the 12 teams it faced. Alabama should be ranked 2nd highest of the three teams.

3. Arkansas, by default, should be ranked 3rd highest of the three teams. Arkanasas dominated ONLY 6 of the 12 teams it faced.