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re: Annual History of the Playoff Selection Committee Decisions - Final 2022 Update
Posted on 11/14/22 at 10:54 am to Che Boludo
Posted on 11/14/22 at 10:54 am to Che Boludo
I'm bookmarking this thread to bump and revisit in December, after the selection.
Should be interesting.
Should be interesting.
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Posted on 11/14/22 at 10:57 am to WG_Dawg
OP is correct. They are not leaving a 1 loss conference champ USC or an undefeated TCU out.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 10:59 am to Cheer
quote:
The data suggests that, yes, we would be out. The committee has shown you their blueprint in the data they've provided.
WG took the time to lay it out for you, I would think that you could take the time to read and decipher it in order to understand it.
Can you tell me how many times the number 1 team lost their championship game and missed the playoff? Why are yall so focused on there only being certain precedents to follow.
I understand all the information given. I think yall should take the time to understand that things can change and 8 years doesn't cement things in stone. A 1 loss ACC champ will not be in over Tenn or a 1 loss UGA if LSU wins the sec title game. Yall are saying based on the previous 8 years there is no way UGA & Tenn would get in over a 1 loss ACC champ...correct??
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:02 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
Can you tell me how many times the number 1 team lost their championship game and missed the playoff?
You love to only paint half the picture. What you said has never happened. It's also never happened in conjunction with all the P5 winners having 0-1 loss.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:03 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
A 1 loss ACC champ will not be in over Tenn
Everyone else in this thread is going by ACTUAL DECISIONS made by the committe over the course of 8 years. REal life proof of how they decide things.
You are going by "it's too far of a jump in teh rankings so it can't happen"
Now which side do you think would be more accurate?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:04 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
which side do you think would be more accurate?
his side, obviously
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:05 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
UGA & Tenn would get in over a 1 loss ACC champ...correct??
Uga, no. Used that as the one team this year in position to break the trend.
Ut, certainly. A 1 loss ACC champ gets in over a 1 loss UT non-conf champ assuming all else holds.
In reality, I don't think we'll find out either way as it will likely sort its self out on the field between now and the final selection to make the picks much more clear.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:08 am to Topwater Trout
quote:That means you think LSU is third in the committees eyes for the playoff pecking order, AFTER winning the SEC.
I think LSU needs help to make it in even if we win out. The help i listed...if that happens the committee will almost have to take 3 sec teams which I don't think will happen
That's incorrect. If LSU wins out, Tennessee will not be the problem. It would be an OSU team that loses a close game to Michigan or a 1 loss USC PAC12 champion.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:08 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
You are going by "it's too far of a jump in teh rankings so it can't happen"
there has never been a jump that high with 3 polls remaining...right or wrong?
Just because you want to take the conf champion angle and use that as the "precedent" doesn't mean there aren't other precedents that may or may not trump the conf champ precedent. Are you going to say right now that if Clemson or UNC wins they will be in over a non champ?
quote:
Everyone else in this thread is going by ACTUAL DECISIONS made by the committe over the course of 8 years. REal life proof of how they decide things.
you are the one saying different factors can't cause a different outcome bc we have had it this way 8x and that there is no way it can differ this year
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:12 am to PP7 for heisman
quote:
It would be an OSU team that loses a close game to Michigan or a 1 loss USC PAC12 champion.
neither of which are in my scenario
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:15 am to WG_Dawg
I do think the vols vs 1 loss acc could be a precedent setting situation.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:18 am to Che Boludo
quote:
In reality, I don't think we'll find out either way as it will likely sort its self out on the field between now and the final selection to make the picks much more clear.
more than likely it will. But a 2 loss Pac 12 champ is out. And there is a good chance the ACC champ will have 1 loss. Basically just need TCU to lose to see what happens. If the OP is right the 4th spot will be between TCU and ACC champ...and that isn't even if LSU wins bc i doubt they do
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:23 am to WG_Dawg
I all these teams hold serve, it should be
1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Tennessee
6 OSU/UM loser
1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Tennessee
6 OSU/UM loser
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:25 am to WG_Dawg
Great post.
Completely agree with the ACC champ. When you look at how the Committee has evaluated the performances of teams so far, and what's left to be done, it's clear they have no shot without teams in front of them stumbling.
Right now both potential ACC champs have the conference title game as their only remaining notable game. Every other contender has a game of at least comparable value that same week, and some have others in the middle.
As an example, LSU is currently ahead of Clemson. LSU would add a win over Georgia if they win out. Clemson would add a win over UNC if they win out. The Committee clearly thinks Georgia > UNC. So there's really no way Clemson could jump here. Same with UNC.
The question really is whether the Committee would put Georgia ahead of LSU even if LSU wins out and Georgia's only loss is to LSU in the SECCG. If they would, then LSU is in Tier 1B, and the ACC needs to be bumped to Tier 1C. If not, though, surely LSU is in Tier 1A with the rest? Essentially Tier 1A consists of the teams who could be one of the top four conference champs. Tier 1B consists of the potential ACC champs (whose resumes are all just too bad). Then your "Tier 2" if you will consists of the nonchamps who need some chaos.
Completely agree with the ACC champ. When you look at how the Committee has evaluated the performances of teams so far, and what's left to be done, it's clear they have no shot without teams in front of them stumbling.
Right now both potential ACC champs have the conference title game as their only remaining notable game. Every other contender has a game of at least comparable value that same week, and some have others in the middle.
As an example, LSU is currently ahead of Clemson. LSU would add a win over Georgia if they win out. Clemson would add a win over UNC if they win out. The Committee clearly thinks Georgia > UNC. So there's really no way Clemson could jump here. Same with UNC.
The question really is whether the Committee would put Georgia ahead of LSU even if LSU wins out and Georgia's only loss is to LSU in the SECCG. If they would, then LSU is in Tier 1B, and the ACC needs to be bumped to Tier 1C. If not, though, surely LSU is in Tier 1A with the rest? Essentially Tier 1A consists of the teams who could be one of the top four conference champs. Tier 1B consists of the potential ACC champs (whose resumes are all just too bad). Then your "Tier 2" if you will consists of the nonchamps who need some chaos.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 7:39 am to WG_Dawg
Bump after this weekend's games. Where are we as of 11/21?
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win the next 2 games you are 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 1B: Pretty much in the playoffs but there's a teeny chance maybe not: LSU. If chalk fully wins out other than the SECCG, you'd have OSU/TCU/USC as locks and a 2-loss SEC champ and possibly a 1-loss ACC champ (to go along wiht a 1-loss non-champ UGA) battling for the 4th spot. In my personal opinion? It'd have to be LSU, I don't see how you deny the SEC champ in that case. I'm just pointing out that based on precedent and what we've seen in the past, it's not a slam dunk take it to the bank guarantee. We have seen situations where a 2-loss P5 champ has been left out in the past (in favor of a team they beat).
"Needs some help" tier: Clemson, UGA if losing SECCG. Clemson as a 1-loss P5 champ would ordinarily be a lock. But if chalk holds firm and you have UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC all as 0/1 loss P5 champs, who gets left out in place of clemson? Nobody. With UGA, you can make a strong argument they're already in anyway, but never has a CCG loser made the playoffs over a P5 champ wiht a similar record. So while it's certainly not impossible, and every talking head on TV says it's a lock, it would still be trend setting.
Pretty much done: OSU/UM loser. It would take a heaping helping of chaos for this team to havee a shot. I'd stop short of saying it's impossible, but it's extraordinarily unlikely.
Last week at this time we had 9 teams that had a legitimate, actual shot at the playoffs. This week we have 7. UNC lost their chance at being a 1-loss P5 champ and UT secured their 2nd loss and will join alabama as 2-loss teams that didn't win their division.
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win the next 2 games you are 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 1B: Pretty much in the playoffs but there's a teeny chance maybe not: LSU. If chalk fully wins out other than the SECCG, you'd have OSU/TCU/USC as locks and a 2-loss SEC champ and possibly a 1-loss ACC champ (to go along wiht a 1-loss non-champ UGA) battling for the 4th spot. In my personal opinion? It'd have to be LSU, I don't see how you deny the SEC champ in that case. I'm just pointing out that based on precedent and what we've seen in the past, it's not a slam dunk take it to the bank guarantee. We have seen situations where a 2-loss P5 champ has been left out in the past (in favor of a team they beat).
"Needs some help" tier: Clemson, UGA if losing SECCG. Clemson as a 1-loss P5 champ would ordinarily be a lock. But if chalk holds firm and you have UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC all as 0/1 loss P5 champs, who gets left out in place of clemson? Nobody. With UGA, you can make a strong argument they're already in anyway, but never has a CCG loser made the playoffs over a P5 champ wiht a similar record. So while it's certainly not impossible, and every talking head on TV says it's a lock, it would still be trend setting.
Pretty much done: OSU/UM loser. It would take a heaping helping of chaos for this team to havee a shot. I'd stop short of saying it's impossible, but it's extraordinarily unlikely.
Last week at this time we had 9 teams that had a legitimate, actual shot at the playoffs. This week we have 7. UNC lost their chance at being a 1-loss P5 champ and UT secured their 2nd loss and will join alabama as 2-loss teams that didn't win their division.
This post was edited on 11/21/22 at 10:08 am
Posted on 11/22/22 at 7:18 am to WG_Dawg
bump
Posted on 11/22/22 at 3:30 pm to WG_Dawg
test post to see if this got unanchored
Posted on 11/22/22 at 3:31 pm to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
oh wow, thanks for that I just figured the mods were going to let it rot.
and thanks mods as well for the unanchor
and thanks mods as well for the unanchor
This post was edited on 11/22/22 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 11/28/22 at 8:24 am to WG_Dawg
bump for a new week. Where are we as of 11/28?
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win Saturday, you're 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 2: Needs help: Ohio State. They are an 11-1 non-divison winner that has been ranked in the top 2 all season. Currently on the outside looking in, but if there are upsets in CCG weekend they would have a reasonable shot to go over some of the teams in tier 1A.
You could also hypothetically slot some of Tier 1A in this category if they were to lose their CCG, but for now it's easier to just keep to what we actually know for sure.
Last week at this time we had 7 teams in contention and have now whittled down to 5. LSU getting their 3rd loss removed them from contention, as did Clemson's loss to SC.
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win Saturday, you're 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 2: Needs help: Ohio State. They are an 11-1 non-divison winner that has been ranked in the top 2 all season. Currently on the outside looking in, but if there are upsets in CCG weekend they would have a reasonable shot to go over some of the teams in tier 1A.
You could also hypothetically slot some of Tier 1A in this category if they were to lose their CCG, but for now it's easier to just keep to what we actually know for sure.
Last week at this time we had 7 teams in contention and have now whittled down to 5. LSU getting their 3rd loss removed them from contention, as did Clemson's loss to SC.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 7:48 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Where are we as of 11/28?
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win Saturday, you're 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 2: Needs help: Ohio State. They are an 11-1 non-divison winner that has been ranked in the top 2 all season. Currently on the outside looking in, but if there are upsets in CCG weekend they would have a reasonable shot to go over some of the teams in tier 1A.
You could also hypothetically slot some of Tier 1A in this category if they were to lose their CCG, but for now it's easier to just keep to what we actually know for sure.
Last week at this time we had 7 teams in contention and have now whittled down to 5.
For anyone paying attnetion and applying any logical thinking (a tall order for some), yesterday's results were not unexpected in any way. Bama has been out of playoff contention since the clock hit 0:00 in the LSU game. We did have some CCG upsets which allowed OSU to slip in in USC's place.
Once again, for hte 9th consecutive season, the committee has made the correct choice for hte 4 playoff teams. They've based it on overall body of work, your entire 13 game resume, and the strength of your wins and losses. I applaud them for seeing through the ESPN hype machine's dumb bullshite they have to do to stir up the masses.
My hope is that 11 months from now when playoff selection time rolls around again this OP will be a helpful guide.
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