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re: Annual History of the Playoff Selection Committee Decisions - Final 2022 Update
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:08 am to WG_Dawg
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:08 am to WG_Dawg
Very good write up, OP. I don’t think VOLS back door in unless two of the ACC/PAC/B12 champs have two losses. I do think we get the nod over the loser of OSU/Michigan. Whether we are in or not in, I’m still extremely happy with the season we’ve had and the improvement we have seen under Heupel.
I personally want Orlando or Jax so I can go :)
I personally want Orlando or Jax so I can go :)
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Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:08 am to Hussss
quote:
I completely disagree.
USC will not get in over Tennessee even if they win out.
You're simply wrong. I dont' know what else you'd need to see other than actual black and white facts, but I guess you're prefer to take a stab in the dark based on your feelings.
A 1-loss Pac 12 champion is not being left out in favor of a 1-loss non-division winner. Period. Not happening.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:08 am to WG_Dawg
2016 Penn State is really the most similar to 2022 LSU. They lost early (week 2 and week 4) and were ranked 7 in the CFP rankings prior to winning the BIG10 Championship. The biggest difference is Ohio State did not even play in the BIG10 Championship game that year. Penn State beat #9 Wisconsin.
2017 Ohio State got drubbed by unranked Iowa in November. When you lose matters.
2017 Ohio State got drubbed by unranked Iowa in November. When you lose matters.
This post was edited on 11/14/22 at 8:11 am
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:12 am to wadewilson
quote:
#1 UGA #7 Ole Miss #6 Alabama
Let me start by saying, I agree that if LSU were to beat Georgia, they should be in. Not saying it’s a guarantee if PAC/ACC/B12 all have a one loss conference champion (plus Big10).
However! Your argument is based on what the team was ranked when you played them, but I have been told over and over and over that it doesn’t matter, but only where that team is ranked at the end of season. Hence why the VOLS “five ranked wins,” is actually only two.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:13 am to UpToPar
quote:
2017 Ohio State got drubbed by unranked Iowa in November. When you lose matters.
I think it matters some, but not as much as the quality of loss. Even if it was game 1 of the year, that whooping to iowa was one of the worst and most inexplicable losses of the entire football season. It was so bad that winning their league couldn't overcome it. That loss, and the fact they had 2 losses, is why bama went with only 1 loss. Theirs was a "quality loss" even though it was the final game of the regular seaosn.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:16 am to Hussss
How to tell when someone goes TLDR?
Your post. You didn’t pay attention apparently to a word he said.
Your post. You didn’t pay attention apparently to a word he said.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:16 am to Hussss
quote:
USC will not get in over Tennessee even if they win out. Their defense is horrendous and they have barely squeaked by shitty teams. No chance.
Correct. However, all these folks saying USCw will get in if they win out only see a record and not the barely squeaking by scores of the games played against some shitty teams. But don’t let facts get in the way of their desire to try and keep UT out of the playoffs.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:17 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
In a 4 team playoff, there will never be a scenario with 3 teams from th same conference making it. Never. Impossible.
Impossible is pretty much what I said. And I didn't read your entire scenario. USC won't make it with 2 losses, If Michigan is blown out they will not make it. If TCU loses who will be the top 4? I personally think it should be UGA, Tenn, OSU and LSU (most deserving) so you tell me who they would leave out and who would make it...11-2 USC/Oregon-Pac 12 champ, TCU with 1 loss? Michigan if blown out by OSU?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:18 am to Alpha Butch
quote:
However, all these folks saying USCw will get in if they win out only see a record
ummm, well...yeah. That's exactly right. That's the entire point is your record, it's why we keep track of who wins and loses each game. The record is fairly important.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:19 am to wadewilson
quote:
You think if LSU wins out there will still be 2 SEC teams ranked higher in the committee's eyes?
I think LSU needs help to make it in even if we win out. The help i listed...if that happens the committee will almost have to take 3 sec teams which I don't think will happen
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:21 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
USC won't make it with 2 losses, If Michigan is blown out they will not make it. If TCU loses who will be the top 4? I personally think it should be UGA, Tenn, OSU and LSU (most deserving) so you tell me who they would leave out and who would make it...11-2 USC/Oregon-Pac 12 champ, TCU with 1 loss? Michigan if blown out by OSU?
you've conveniently left out a P5 conference, the ACC champion is assuredly in with 1 loss in your scenario.
The committee would come up with literally any justification they can to put find a 1-loss non-champion to avoid 3 teams form the same league. It just wouldn't happen. In your scenario Tennessee would also likely not make it; LSU would be in as a 2-loss SEC champion and if UGA makes it as you've guessed as a 1-loss non-champ, why would UT ALSO make it as a 1-los non-champ who got thoroughly depantsed by UGA already?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:26 am to WG_Dawg
“Coming in at Number Four … Notre Dame!”
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:26 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
the ACC champion is assuredly in with 1 loss in your scenario.
based on what? they are ranked 10th. how would they jump Tenn?
quote:
LSU would be in as a 2-loss SEC champion
and i think they might get left out unless the other things i said happen. Tenn dominated LSU. UGA would be defending 1 loss national champs. Do you think UGA would be left out with a loss in SEC title game?
Tell me the top 4 if my scenario happens?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:27 am to WG_Dawg
A 2-loss conference champ would be in, should somehow (and I don’t see how) the ACC champ ends up having 2 losses.
Hell will freeze over before they’d take 3 SEC teams
Hell will freeze over before they’d take 3 SEC teams
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:31 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
based on what? they are ranked 10th. how would they jump Tenn?
you need to understand that this isn't the coaches poll. Rankings are irrelevvant right now. IT doesn't friggin matter if a team is ranked 10th since we still have 3 games left to play including a CCG.
quote:
Tell me the top 4 if my scenario happens?
bullet point it all for me because you've listed like 7 things
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:33 am to WG_Dawg
Great post. It is hilarious that there are those still arguing using their feelings.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:37 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
this isn't the coaches poll.
they are 10th in the cfb playoff poll...the one that decides it all. The acc is horrendous. Clemson got blown out by ND...they are not making top 4.
My scenario...
LSU wins out finishes 11-2 SEC champs
UGA finishes 12-1 (defending national champs)
Ohio St blows out Michigan-Theuy are a lock
Tenn finishes 11-1 only loss a road loss to UGA and best win a blowout win at LSU
TCU loses to Baylor and finishes with a loss-I don't think the BIG 12 has champ game anymore
USC loses to ND or in PAC 12 champ game-Pac 12 champ finishes with 2 losses
Michigan was blown out in final game vs OSU
So who is the top 4 if this happens? I think it would be...
1-OSU
2.UGA
3. Tenn
4. LSU
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:47 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
I don't think the BIG 12 has champ game anymore
They do. So let's figure out how you want to handle that outcome and then we'll continue
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:55 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
They do. So let's figure out how you want to handle that outcome and then we'll continue
TCU loses the title game...who is the Top 4?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:59 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
My scenario...
LSU wins out finishes 11-2 SEC champs
UGA finishes 12-1 (defending national champs)
Ohio St blows out Michigan-Theuy are a lock
Tenn finishes 11-1 only loss a road loss to UGA and best win a blowout win at LSU
TCU loses to Baylor and finishes with a loss-I don't think the BIG 12 has champ game anymore
USC loses to ND or in PAC 12 champ game-Pac 12 champ finishes with 2 losses
Michigan was blown out in final game vs OSU
So who is the top 4 if this happens?
First let's just present the facts as we know them, starting wioth P5 winners
Big 10- 0 loss Ohio State
SEC- 2 loss LSU
Big 12- Unnamed 3 loss team that isn't TCU
Pac12- 2 loss USC
ACC- 1 loss Clemson/UNC presumably (not mentioned in your post)
In that case, OSU and the ACC champ are mortal locks. 10000%.
LSU would be in based on the fact that all other conference winners have 2 losses too and they've just beaten UGA.
The final spot is a tossup, and one that I can't answer with any confidence because we havne't see such a scenario in real life yet so there it isn't any precednet. Fortyuantely, it's so far fetched that we'll likely never have to see it. But to answer the ultimate quesiton you're getting at...the ACC champion with 1 loss is a certainty.
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