Started By
Message
re: Alabama opponent defensive ranks (Yards per Play)... and more!
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 5.90 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays. Alabama averages about 0.070 points per yard against P5 teams
LSU gives up 4.9 YPP vs conference opponents, so assuming LSU gives up 115% of their average against conference opponents, Alabama is looking at 5.6 YPP.
LSU gives up 0.24 points per play vs. conference opponents, so assuming LSU gives up 115% of their average against conference opponents, Alabama is looking as 0.28 points per play.
That comes out to:
68 plays, 380 yards, and 19 points. Give me that all day.
Lets assumed LSU gives up 130% of their average. That still comes out to:
68 plays, 433 yards, 21 points. Again, I would take that in a heartbeat.
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 1:23 pm
1
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:23 pm to UpToPar
quote:
LSU gives up 4.9 YPP vs conference opponents, so assuming LSU gives up 115% of their average against conference opponents, Alabama is looking at 5.6 YPP.
LSU gives up 0.24 points per play vs. conference opponents, so assuming LSU gives up 115% of their average against conference opponents, Alabama is looking as 0.28 points per play.
That comes out to:
68 plays, 380 yards, and 19 points. Give me that all day.
Yep, which is why when I do my nerd arse stat predictions I run the opponent averages for one offense and one defense then mesh them together.
I haven't run this one, but I'd assume it will put Alabama somewhere in the 25-35 point range and LSU somewhere in the 15-25 point range.
But, I'd guess, in a 25-75% chance range LSU would be higher than anyone else. Basically, the numerical answer to "if Alabama plays like they did on offense vs Missouri and defense like Arkansas and LSU plays like they did vs Georgia and Auburn would LSU win".
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama averages about 0.095 points per yard against P5 teams, so that comes out to a grand total of 68 plays, 7.34 YPP, 499 yards, 47 points Nice stats, I agree with the conclusion!
So your assuming Bama who hasn't played a good defense yet will still average the same points per play against LSU as they did against these awful defenses. Sound math there bubba. Bama is the favorite and should beat LSU but don't beat your chest over some bullshite stat.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:30 pm to WhereOrWere
quote:
No! Back to the drawing board I guess though.
Props to OP for admitting he was whipped.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:31 pm to redfishfan
quote:
So your assuming Bama who hasn't played a good defense yet will still average the same points per play against LSU as they did against these awful defenses.
You should probably look down a few posts from that one for your answer buddy!
Look, its like I knew your exact jab was coming or something!
quote:
But hey, you know what, LSU is probably going to hold us to a lower % of their yearly average I bet. Right? I mean, Death Valley, night time, big game. So let's say LSU holds us to 115% of their average for the year vs 1A teams. That's pretty good, much better than anyone else Alabama has played all year relative to their yearly average. And lets say they hold Alabama to 0.070 points per yard, because they are much better than the other opponents. LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 5.90 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays.
Alabama averages about 0.070 points per yard against P5 teams, so that comes out to a grand total of
68 plays, 5.90 YPP, 401 yards, 28 points
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:32 pm to WhereOrWere
quote:
No! Back to the drawing board I guess though.
We live for the fight
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Look, its like I knew your exact jab was coming or something!
Wasn't a jab. Just pointing out it was flawed. Props for making the proper corrections though. I see a Bama 27 LSU 13 type game unless Tua isn't 100% or a turnover changes the game. Bama needs to avoid it being a game in the 4th bc that stadium will be lit if so.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:37 pm to redfishfan
quote:
Wasn't a jab. Just pointing out it was flawed. Props for making the proper corrections though. I see a Bama 27 LSU 13 type game unless Tua isn't 100% or a turnover changes the game. Bama needs to avoid it being a game in the 4th bc that stadium will be lit if so.
I'm guessing it'll be a war and both teams will hit a few more big plays on offense than we've been used to seeing in LSU/Bama games in Baton Rouge.
Like you said, I think turnovers and field position are the key. Our punting situation is scary in a game like this for me. It hasn't really entered into the equation yet, but it could have drastic effects in a game where our offense is just slowed a bit more than normal. LSU having a solid kicker/punter combo vs us having the opposite is a scary cloud hanging over things.
We'll see - gotta deal with the VOLS first.
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Like you said, I think turnovers and field position are the key. Our punting situation is scary in a game like this for me. It hasn't really entered into the equation yet, but it could have drastic effects in a game where our offense is just slowed a bit more than normal. LSU having a solid kicker/punter combo vs us having the opposite is a scary cloud hanging over things.
Yea the last time we beat Bama was a large part due to Brad Wing hitting bombs all night.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ohhh please do the same thing and see what it would say for UGA against LSU. I’m sure it would show similarly that they would march up and down the field. After all, they had an average margin of victory of 30 points prior to that game.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
68 plays, 5.90 YPP, 401 yards, 28 points
Hold On! Let me check your math...
YEP, its confirmed, you're a common core math dumbass!
Bama Fkd
Oh and Bama can't lose!
It's actually sad that any of you, bama or LSU, are running numbers, as though it will actually matter in the game. If you do think it matters, then please visit oddshark website and take all there predictions. You'll be RICH!
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:53 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:can't wait for aranda to call up those safety and corner blitzes he loves so much just to have tua calmly drop it in behind them, all day long
Ohhh please do the same thing and see what it would say for UGA against LSU. I’m sure it would show similarly that they would march up and down the field. After all, they had an average margin of victory of 30 points prior to that game.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:54 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Ohhh please do the same thing and see what it would say for UGA against LSU. I’m sure it would show similarly that they would march up and down the field. After all, they had an average margin of victory of 30 points prior to that game.
It gave the following
Georgia - 29 (16)
LSU - 22 (36)
Georgia YPP - 6.17 (5.03)
LSU YPP - 4.96 (5.86)
Georgia was averaging 118% of opponents YPA rushing and 122% of opponents YPA passing on offense. Alabama is averaging 113% of opponents YPA rushing and 157% of opponents YPA passing on offense.
Georgia was averaging giving up 97% of opponents YPA rushing and 79% of opponents YPA passing on defense. Alabama is averaging giving up 73% of opponents YPA rushing and 81% of opponents YPA passing on defense.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:56 pm to stephendomalley
quote:
only thing that scares alabama is Tua's knees.
And Whereorwere's stats.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:57 pm to bstew3006
quote:
It's actually sad that any of you, bama or LSU, are running numbers, as though it will actually matter in the game.
It won't matter during the game, but it will give you a pretty general idea of how well Team A will run the ball over the course of the game or how well Team B will be able to consistently pass the ball over the course of the game.
It won't tell you how many turnovers there will be or how field position might effect things if those things tip outside the "normal" way a team plays, and it won't work nearly as well for predicting total yardage and scores if one team ends up running 80 plays and the other only 60 (hint, the one that runs 80 has a much better shot of winning).
Just fun to get a general idea of the parameters the game will most likely be played in. Not gonna give you some magic score or yardage total.
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:58 pm to narddogg81
quote:
can't wait for aranda to call up those safety and corner blitzes he loves so much just to have tua calmly drop it in behind them, all day long
I'd be surprised if Aranda called Safety and corner blitzes in that game. I'm sure he will just sit back and only bring pressure with DL and LB.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 2:02 pm to redfishfan
quote:
So your assuming Bama who hasn't played a good defense yet will still average the same points per play against LSU as they did against these awful defenses. Sound math there bubba. Bama is the favorite and should beat LSU but don't beat your chest over some bullshite stat.
Texas A&M's defense has a better total defense ranking than LSU.
Posted on 10/17/18 at 2:27 pm to Centinel
quote:
Props to OP for admitting he was whipped.
I’m a stats guy, and I’m most impressed at how quick the clap-back occurred.
Only 7 minutes of game time went off the clock.
I was still trying to get the crowd hyped.
My hype team didn’t even get a chance to get in here.
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 10/17/18 at 2:37 pm to bstew3006
quote:good luck with that
I'd be surprised if Aranda called Safety and corner blitzes in that game. I'm sure he will just sit back and only bring pressure with DL and LB.
Page 2 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News