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Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:16 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted similar graphics to your posts and mentioned the nuclear power plant. I just scan most of the boards for warning info and what not. I only post on here. I've given your gulfcoastwx site tons of traffic since snowmageddon back in January.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:21 pm to Duke
quote:
Posted similar graphics to your posts and mentioned the nuclear power plant. I just scan most of the boards for warning info and what not. I only post on here. I've given your gulfcoastwx site tons of traffic since snowmageddon back in January.
I didn't mention the power plant... possible funnel on weather channel right now..Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
That clarksdale storm in ms
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF VANCE...OR
12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARKSDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BATESVILLE.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR MOON LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF VANCE...OR
12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARKSDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BATESVILLE.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR MOON LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
Was just about to post that 
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
Tornado Warning for NW Mississippi, including Panola County (right next door to Oxford). I can't really see the tornado on radar, but the experts can...
That's a monster of a hailcore in that cell though.
That's a monster of a hailcore in that cell though.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:26 pm to Duke
quote:
Tornado Warning for NW Mississippi, including Panola County (right next door to Oxford). I can't really see the tornado on radar, but the experts can...
That bright green and red is your rotation
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
Well it's plain as day there. I use the NWS site generally, and I didn't see it.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:29 pm to Duke
quote:
Well it's plain as day there. I use the NWS site generally, and I didn't see it.
its still upper/mid level rotation, needs to lower a bit
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:30 pm to GEAUXmedic
New tornado watch for MS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 530 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW
98...WW 99...WW 100...
DISCUSSION...A LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED OVER
NORTHWEST MS. THIS STORM MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS... TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 530 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW
98...WW 99...WW 100...
DISCUSSION...A LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED OVER
NORTHWEST MS. THIS STORM MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS... TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 5:32 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
Wouldn't normally consider this, but since the cell is so isolated I may try to get a better look at it on Hwy 7 if it holds together and goes north of Oxford.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:32 pm to Duke
Suns been shinin in Oxford/Ponotoc/New Albany area............not good
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
Tornado Warning in Marks, MS.. Couple miles West of Batesville.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:33 pm to Dixie.Reb
I wouldn't think you'd get that great a view from 7, probably have a helluva view from the top of the Sardis dam though
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:34 pm to reggierayreb
And now a tornado watch for almost all of North Mississippi until 11 tonight
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:34 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
probably have a helluva view from the top of the Sardis dam though
This!
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:36 pm to GEAUXmedic
Goodness!
Have you read the Jackson discussion?
Have you read the Jackson discussion?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 5:36 pm to Dixie.Reb
ANYONE IN MISSISSIPPI.. READ THIS OUTLOOK FROM JACKSON NWS OFFICE PLEASE.. READ IT CLOSELY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE ROUNDS AND
THEIR POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
DIFFERENT AREAS OVER THIS TIME FRAME. BELOW WILL BE A DISCUSSION
FOCUSING ON THE SPATIAL, TEMPORAL AND HAZARDS SCOPE OF THESE ROUNDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MONDAY LOOK PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS.
OVERALL SYNOPSIS REVEALS A STRONG OCCLUDED H5 CLOSED LOW OVER KS AS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED H7-H3 JET STREAK MAXIMUMS PIVOT AROUND THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AN ATTENDANT 983 MB SURFACE LOW ALLOWING FOR
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SPREAD OVER A LARGE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARDS THE DELTA REGION. IT IS THIS SAME
CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM THAT WILL
BRING MORE SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY /~3000 J/KG
SBCAPE/ DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ AND 0-1 KM ESRH /300-500 M2/S2/
EXIST. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION THAT COULD LIKELY SERVE AS A LOW-LVL CONVERGENT FOCUS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS,
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NW MS
AND DELTA REGION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE EVENING THAT WILL
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTH MS. THE SHOWERS AND GENERAL TSTORMS IN SW MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE AND POSE A MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE RISK DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
THE NEXT, AND POTENTIALLY MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS DAYBREAK MONDAY AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BY 7AM
MONDAY...A BRISK S/WV TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT OFF THE MAIN CYCLONIC
GYRE WHILE THE GYRE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. INDUCED LIFT FROM HEIGHT
FALLS AND 90 KT H5 JET IN AR IN PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 MLCAPE AND
NEAR 7 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER DAY BREAK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS ACTIVITY SETS UP AND HOW IT EVOLVES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
HOW THE REST OF THE PLAYS OUT. ONE SCENARIO COULD BE FOR COLD
POOLING FROM THIS POSSIBLE STORM CLUSTER TO LEAD TO A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP NORTH I-20. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS POSSIBLE BOUNDARY, A
CONCERNING ENVIRONMENT OF AMPLE MLCAPE, MODEST 0-1 KM SRH AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
IMPETUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. A SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT AS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE AND LITTLE/NO COLD POOLING OCCURS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW AND STRONG MIXING. THE CLUSTER MAY SLOW AND EVOLVE INTO MORE
DISCRETE CELLS/SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE RENEWED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IMPINGES ON THE VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT IN THE LOW-
LVLS. STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTN WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN CIPS
ANALOGS AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLFBALLS TO
EGG SIZE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. AS THE COMPLEX EVOLVES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND NIGHT, HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH MS AS AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUALLY FEED
INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR WHERE PRECIP
MAXIMUM OCCURS.
THIS HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST MS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE DRYLINE/BOUNDARY SET-UP NEAR THE MS RIVER. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP BETWEEN THE EC/GFS/NAM. AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE (LIKELY I-55 AND EAST) WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ELEVATED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES, HAIL, STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS, AND MORE HEAVY RAIN. TUESDAY EVOLUTION WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RECOVERY FROM MONDAY AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE ADDED AS WE APPROACH
THAT TIME FRAME.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT TOMORROW..MONDAY...LOOKS VERY CONCERNING
AND SEVERE ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY TONIGHT IN
PREPARATION. /ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE ROUNDS AND
THEIR POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
DIFFERENT AREAS OVER THIS TIME FRAME. BELOW WILL BE A DISCUSSION
FOCUSING ON THE SPATIAL, TEMPORAL AND HAZARDS SCOPE OF THESE ROUNDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MONDAY LOOK PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS.
OVERALL SYNOPSIS REVEALS A STRONG OCCLUDED H5 CLOSED LOW OVER KS AS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED H7-H3 JET STREAK MAXIMUMS PIVOT AROUND THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AN ATTENDANT 983 MB SURFACE LOW ALLOWING FOR
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SPREAD OVER A LARGE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARDS THE DELTA REGION. IT IS THIS SAME
CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM THAT WILL
BRING MORE SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY /~3000 J/KG
SBCAPE/ DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ AND 0-1 KM ESRH /300-500 M2/S2/
EXIST. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION THAT COULD LIKELY SERVE AS A LOW-LVL CONVERGENT FOCUS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS,
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NW MS
AND DELTA REGION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE EVENING THAT WILL
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTH MS. THE SHOWERS AND GENERAL TSTORMS IN SW MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE AND POSE A MARGINAL STRONG TO SEVERE RISK DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
THE NEXT, AND POTENTIALLY MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS DAYBREAK MONDAY AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BY 7AM
MONDAY...A BRISK S/WV TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT OFF THE MAIN CYCLONIC
GYRE WHILE THE GYRE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. INDUCED LIFT FROM HEIGHT
FALLS AND 90 KT H5 JET IN AR IN PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 MLCAPE AND
NEAR 7 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER DAY BREAK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS ACTIVITY SETS UP AND HOW IT EVOLVES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
HOW THE REST OF THE PLAYS OUT. ONE SCENARIO COULD BE FOR COLD
POOLING FROM THIS POSSIBLE STORM CLUSTER TO LEAD TO A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP NORTH I-20. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS POSSIBLE BOUNDARY, A
CONCERNING ENVIRONMENT OF AMPLE MLCAPE, MODEST 0-1 KM SRH AND STRONG
DYNAMIC LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A
IMPETUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. A SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT AS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE AND LITTLE/NO COLD POOLING OCCURS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW AND STRONG MIXING. THE CLUSTER MAY SLOW AND EVOLVE INTO MORE
DISCRETE CELLS/SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE RENEWED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IMPINGES ON THE VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT IN THE LOW-
LVLS. STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTN WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN CIPS
ANALOGS AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLFBALLS TO
EGG SIZE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. AS THE COMPLEX EVOLVES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND NIGHT, HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH MS AS AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUALLY FEED
INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR WHERE PRECIP
MAXIMUM OCCURS.
THIS HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST MS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE DRYLINE/BOUNDARY SET-UP NEAR THE MS RIVER. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP BETWEEN THE EC/GFS/NAM. AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE (LIKELY I-55 AND EAST) WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ELEVATED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES, HAIL, STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS, AND MORE HEAVY RAIN. TUESDAY EVOLUTION WILL REVOLVE AROUND
RECOVERY FROM MONDAY AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE ADDED AS WE APPROACH
THAT TIME FRAME.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT TOMORROW..MONDAY...LOOKS VERY CONCERNING
AND SEVERE ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY TONIGHT IN
PREPARATION. /ALLEN/
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