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Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

A history of pandemics
History of pandemics by death totals.

Note that one of the worst pandemics of all time is still active, HIV/AIDS.



ETA: I changed the topic title in an attempt to avoid luring the attention of folks who might think this is a political thread. I meant it to be first and foremost one of science.
This post was edited on 7/12 at 9:40 am


flyingtexastiger
LSU Fan
Southlake, TX
Member since Oct 2005
900 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Holy s***, what a fresh take. If only someone had posted this back in March at the beginning of this s***.


emanresu
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
6962 posts

re: A history of pandemics
The Black Death killed an estimated 200 million. To give that even further perspective, the estimated population of the planet in the 1300s was about 400 million. So that would be like a pandemic today killing 3.5 billion.


Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
What’s your problem with this comparison? Stop looking at everything from a political viewpoint. This isn’t the politard board.

This is just a comparison of the effects of a novel coronavirus pandemic to others caused by different viruses and bacteria. Rein in the hysteria and appreciate the knowledge this chart and article give us.


Perfect Circle
Alabama Fan
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
4299 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Without the media hysteria, I wonder if people would notice, other than that there was a new flu-like strain of virus going around.


Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Also, the Black Death killed an estimate 1/3 to 1/2 of the European population. If it hadn’t happened the population of the European Union might be well over a billion, comparable to that of China and India.


Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
quote:

Without the media hysteria, I wonder if people would notice, other than that there was a new flu-like strain of virus going around.



We’ve had several pandemics since the big one in 1918 and none of them generated the kind of attention this one has. Maybe it’s because it’s a coronavirus. This is the first known pandemic caused by a species of that virus family.

I think it might also be because it followed so closely after the ebola epidemic in Africa. That was genuinely scary. Thankfully, the African nations most affected cooperated well with ouside help and stopped it spreading continent wide.


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kywildcatfanone
Kentucky Fan
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
71030 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Spanish flu deaths laugh at Covid deaths.


Arksulli
Arkansas Fan
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
19221 posts

re: A history of pandemics
AIDS has probably received more attention, though not recently of course. Along with a high death toll it has also altered the sexual habits of much the world in response. As PJ O'Rourke once said "the sexual revolution is over and the microbes won."

Here is why COVID-19 is getting so much attention right now. AIDS has killed a lot more people yes, but you probably won't catch AIDS by going to the grocery store unless you trip on your shoelaces and accidentally have sex with someone. COVID-19 you can catch anywhere just by breathing the same air as someone who has it.

We haven't seen a sickness this deadly, and this widespread, since 1970. Unless you are in your 60s or 70s you've never experienced anything like this. Not to mention if you do go back and look at the 1970 Hong Kong Flu and the '58 Asian Flu you will find that both crippled countries around the world and cratered the US economy.

So far COVID-19 is doing exactly what every other major pandemic has done. Experts say we aren't even finished with the first wave of the outbreak and it doesn't appear that herd immunity is an option. One, we don't know how long you retain immunity from this particular bug because it is so new (it isn't the flu folks, we don't have more than a century of medical knowledge about it). Two, even if we can attain herd immunity that would require somewhere around 70% or more of the population to become infected and develop immunity.

This would take years and instead of a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand people dead in the US we'd be looking at around 3 million dead. We also know that the infection does long term damage to the heart and lungs for some of those who do survive it. So, millions dead and tens of millions with long term health problems.

If you think partial shutdowns have impacted the US economy... I shudder to think of what that would do.

If you leave out politics, which some on both sides will refuse to do, the obvious solution is obvious. Wear masks (not so much for your protection but to protect others), maintain social distancing whenever possible, practice safe hygiene, and avoid large public gatherings. Asian and European countries (other than the UK) have done that and lowered the infection rate to the point they can begin to safely reopen.

Be safe. Be careful. Hold the fort down until science comes up with a cure.





Arksulli
Arkansas Fan
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
19221 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Also, something I just came across, we all know how dangerous AIDS is correct?

Check out this article from 2001 about a radical AIDS group that didn't believe the virus was dangerous, rather that it was the drugs they took to treat it that were killing people.

LINK

That is silly you say. Everyone knows how deadly HIV/AIDS is if you don't treat it. And these people have AIDS, how can they deny the danger?

Deny it they did though. They are all dead. None survived longer than 13 years after the article and most didn't make it that long.



Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Spanish flu arose before there were vaccines and therapy treatments for influenza. It would have undoubtedly killed millions more if the earth’s population had been as urban as it is now.

From the CDC:

quote:

With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.


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Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
quote:

AIDS has probably received more attention, though not recently of course.


I think humans become jaded to situations that are out of their control, especially diseases like AIDS that have remarkable incubation periods and don’t affect the general population. Scientists have certainly never lost interest, but I think most other people have even though the virus is still very much a threat to tens of millions of people.

quote:

if you do go back and look at the 1970 Hong Kong Flu and the '58 Asian Flu you will find that both crippled countries around the world and cratered the US economy.


The Asian and Hong Kong flu pandemics caused mild recessions in world markets but quick recoveries took place. If the current pandemic continues, it could trigger a recession as strong or stronger depending upon how it mutates in humans.

quote:

Experts say we aren't even finished with the first wave of the outbreak and it doesn't appear that herd immunity is an option. One, we don't know how long you retain immunity from this particular bug because it is so new (it isn't the flu folks, we don't have more than a century of medical knowledge about it). Two, even if we can attain herd immunity that would require somewhere around 70% or more of the population to become infected and develop immunity.


We certainly haven’t had a pause in its spread yet. I don’t really like the term “wave” in this situation because it implies that the virus goes away for a while. It doesn’t. It just recedes due to a lower availability of hosts.

I disagree with those who say that immunity might be more limited for this virus. I don’t know of any instances where this has occurred with any other virus, especially coronaviruses.

quote:

This would take years and instead of a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand people dead in the US we'd be looking at around 3 million dead. We also know that the infection does long term damage to the heart and lungs for some of those who do survive it. So, millions dead and tens of millions with long term health problems.


How the virus will ultimately mutate in its new hosts is an open question. Will it follow the past patterns of influenza viruses and other coronaviruses and become less dangerous? Or could it possibly become a deadlier virus that attacks and destroys the lungs of anyone who contracts it, young or old? We don’t know how its cousin coronaviruses acted before becoming just annoying cold viruses. Hopefully, there’s just another cold virus in our future.
This post was edited on 7/12 at 3:26 pm


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Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
quote:

Check out this article from 2001 about a radical AIDS group that didn't believe the virus was dangerous, rather that it was the drugs they took to treat it that were killing people.


From the article:

quote:

As if 18.8 million deaths worldwide weren't bad enough, there now emerges an ACT UP group that argues that HIV is harmless, that AIDS is a myth and that unprotected sex is everyone's birthright.


The brain is a strange organ. Within it, an individual can seemingly concoct a world view and then project it onto the world around him.

HIV/AIDS is a predator. Denying that it’s dangerous, even when it has seized control of one’s body and is dining upon it at its leisure, will lead to a short life, as evidenced by this extinct group of deniers.


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Trumansfangs
Missouri Fan
Town & Country
Member since Sep 2018
1807 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Excellent thread my friend.


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Arksulli
Arkansas Fan
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
19221 posts

re: A history of pandemics
In something dealing with this pandemic, and scientifically related, I took a quick look at claims that certain labs in Florida are committing fraud by reporting 100% positive infection rates.

Oh people were all upset on the SEC Rant about this. And it took me about 15 minutes to go through the numbers and determine the reason why they were doing this is because you are not required to report negative tests, only positive ones.

Lee Memorial has only reported 397 cases, all positive... yet their own numbers show they've tested 33,000+.

It is things like this that skew people's judgments about an outbreak and cause them to distrust the medical counts.


MIZ_COU
Missouri Fan
I'm right here
Member since Oct 2013
13596 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Yep. The majority of people on this board are too stupid to figure that out for themselves (or add and subtract).
Welcome the the rant where you, sir, are a fuking genius.


Arksulli
Arkansas Fan
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
19221 posts

re: A history of pandemics
quote:

Yep. The majority of people on this board are too stupid to figure that out for themselves (or add and subtract).
Welcome the the rant where you, sir, are a fuking genius.


Anyplace I am a genius is a scary, scary place.


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Commander Data
Alabama Fan
Titletown, USA
Member since Dec 2016
6779 posts

re: A history of pandemics
Good stuff. I found this article months ago when the current pandemic was in its infancy. Killer single cell organisms wreaking havoc on society is nothing new as this thread points out.


Kentucker
Kentucky Fan
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
15669 posts

re: A history of pandemics
And still the human population has burgeoned to nearly 8 billion. COVID-19 is showing us how a very contagious microbe can burn through a new host species despite any road blocks thrown in its path.

We like to think of ourselves as the apex species on earth but we still haven’t conquered the smallest ones. They are our last natural enemies. The potential remains for an especially deadly virus, bacterium or plasmodium to radically reduce the number of humans on this planet. They’ve done it often in the past.


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Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2424 posts

re: A history of pandemics
I'd like to see this chart population adjusted.

There were only around 1.5B people on the planet in 1918.


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