A history of pandemics

The Black Death killed an estimated 200 million. To give that even further perspective, the estimated population of the planet in the 1300s was about 400 million. So that would be like a pandemic today killing 3.5 billion.

Without the media hysteria, I wonder if people would notice, other than that there was a new flu-like strain of virus going around.

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Without the media hysteria, I wonder if people would notice, other than that there was a new flu-like strain of virus going around.

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We’ve had several pandemics since the big one in 1918 and none of them generated the kind of attention this one has. Maybe it’s because it’s a coronavirus. This is the first known pandemic caused by a species of that virus family.

I think it might also be because it followed so closely after the ebola epidemic in Africa. That was genuinely scary. Thankfully, the African nations most affected cooperated well with ouside help and stopped it spreading continent wide.

AIDS has probably received more attention, though not recently of course. Along with a high death toll it has also altered the sexual habits of much the world in response. As PJ O'Rourke once said "the sexual revolution is over and the microbes won."

Here is why COVID-19 is getting so much attention right now. AIDS has killed a lot more people yes, but you probably won't catch AIDS by going to the grocery store unless you trip on your shoelaces and accidentally have sex with someone. COVID-19 you can catch anywhere just by breathing the same air as someone who has it.

We haven't seen a sickness this deadly, and this widespread, since 1970. Unless you are in your 60s or 70s you've never experienced anything like this. Not to mention if you do go back and look at the 1970 Hong Kong Flu and the '58 Asian Flu you will find that both crippled countries around the world and cratered the US economy.

So far COVID-19 is doing exactly what every other major pandemic has done. Experts say we aren't even finished with the first wave of the outbreak and it doesn't appear that herd immunity is an option. One, we don't know how long you retain immunity from this particular bug because it is so new (it isn't the flu folks, we don't have more than a century of medical knowledge about it). Two, even if we can attain herd immunity that would require somewhere around 70% or more of the population to become infected and develop immunity.

This would take years and instead of a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand people dead in the US we'd be looking at around 3 million dead. We also know that the infection does long term damage to the heart and lungs for some of those who do survive it. So, millions dead and tens of millions with long term health problems.

If you think partial shutdowns have impacted the US economy... I shudder to think of what that would do.

If you leave out politics, which some on both sides will refuse to do, the obvious solution is obvious. Wear masks (not so much for your protection but to protect others), maintain social distancing whenever possible, practice safe hygiene, and avoid large public gatherings. Asian and European countries (other than the UK) have done that and lowered the infection rate to the point they can begin to safely reopen.

Be safe. Be careful. Hold the fort down until science comes up with a cure.

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AIDS has probably received more attention, though not recently of course.

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I think humans become jaded to situations that are out of their control, especially diseases like AIDS that have remarkable incubation periods and don’t affect the general population. Scientists have certainly never lost interest, but I think most other people have even though the virus is still very much a threat to tens of millions of people.

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if you do go back and look at the 1970 Hong Kong Flu and the '58 Asian Flu you will find that both crippled countries around the world and cratered the US economy.

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The Asian and Hong Kong flu pandemics caused mild recessions in world markets but quick recoveries took place. If the current pandemic continues, it could trigger a recession as strong or stronger depending upon how it mutates in humans.

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Experts say we aren't even finished with the first wave of the outbreak and it doesn't appear that herd immunity is an option. One, we don't know how long you retain immunity from this particular bug because it is so new (it isn't the flu folks, we don't have more than a century of medical knowledge about it). Two, even if we can attain herd immunity that would require somewhere around 70% or more of the population to become infected and develop immunity.

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We certainly haven’t had a pause in its spread yet. I don’t really like the term “wave” in this situation because it implies that the virus goes away for a while. It doesn’t. It just recedes due to a lower availability of hosts.

I disagree with those who say that immunity might be more limited for this virus. I don’t know of any instances where this has occurred with any other virus, especially coronaviruses.

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This would take years and instead of a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand people dead in the US we'd be looking at around 3 million dead. We also know that the infection does long term damage to the heart and lungs for some of those who do survive it. So, millions dead and tens of millions with long term health problems.

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How the virus will ultimately mutate in its new hosts is an open question. Will it follow the past patterns of influenza viruses and other coronaviruses and become less dangerous? Or could it possibly become a deadlier virus that attacks and destroys the lungs of anyone who contracts it, young or old? We don’t know how its cousin coronaviruses acted before becoming just annoying cold viruses. Hopefully, there’s just another cold virus in our future.

Excellent thread my friend.

Yep. The majority of people on this board are too stupid to figure that out for themselves (or add and subtract).
Welcome the the rant where you, sir, are a fuking genius.

Good stuff. I found this article months ago when the current pandemic was in its infancy. Killer single cell organisms wreaking havoc on society is nothing new as this thread points out.

I'd like to see this chart population adjusted.

There were only around 1.5B people on the planet in 1918.