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Scouting Report. (South Carolina, 10/03)
Posted on 9/29/20 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 9/29/20 at 7:17 pm
(Florida is always left)
Spread -17.5 | +17.5
Money Line -1,000 | +650
Over/Under 57
Now that we finally have some tape to work with, I can start making some observations about the game. So let's just jump on in.
Miscellaneous Notes: Tennessee isn't an automatic victory anymore. Their team looks incredibly different than they have in the past. I think we still have their number, but Pruitt is definitely leading them in the right direction.
SCAR Offense: Almost nothing has changed since Muschamp left. Their offensive playcalling continues to be extremely predictable. There are some wrinkles of runs to the outside (tosses, sweeps and jet-sweeps) but the vast majority of it is as if you were just picking: "what would someone run on 1st down statistically speaking?" Whatever the statistical answer is, 90% of the time Muschamp will perform the play you're thinking of.
For example: If it's 3rd and 5 and most pass, he will pass. If it's 2nd and 3, he will run it to get it closer. He is extremely unimaginative and doesn't take risks except for a few times a game.
QB: Colin Hill (25/39, 290, 1/1). This is a very average Quarterback and honestly there is no way he can be better than Ryan Hilinski. I'm not Muschamp, so I can't tell him who to play but this guy just does not have it. He really only has one strength to his game and that's to throw the slant. He has some deep threat, but it's not enough. Arm strength is questionable, and the worst of all:
He has zero pocket presence. He was sacked several times from a very, very vanilla pass rush from Tennessee. His eyes don't stay downfield and he's far too quick to just give up on the play.
OL: Yikes. Weak. Muschamp offensive lines always seem to just not be up to the task at hand. Many times the pocket collapsed in a mere second and Hill was just panicking. Similarly, rushing the ball South Carolina struggled mightily. South Carolina rushed for 89 yards on 35 carries (2.5 yards a rush).
SP (Skill Positions): Their WRs are actually pretty decent, and if they had a QB who could get them the ball (like fricking Ryan Hilinski) they would probably win a lot more games. They can make us pay if they can get the slant to work, but it looks like we'll be able to disrupt them without even blitzing.
Ole Miss looked much better than they did on offense, much, much better.
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SCAR Defense: Generally, it is like Muschamp's normal defense. They are conventionally strong, as long as you play a normal offense and do what he expects he will do well. The moment you mix things up it falls apart. They are constantly out of position, have blown assignments all over the field and worst of all: can be very soft from time to time. Tackling is still a major issue.
DL: Like most Muschamp defenses, the DL is great until they gas and that happens a lot with his team for a lack of moving the ball. They were okay, and did get penetration but Guarantano also isn't a very good passer, nor does he have great football instincts. Running the ball Tennessee just did fine.
LB: Nothing special, they're rather mediocre. They often times go to the wrong part of the field and had the most blown coverage assignments. Like flat out being no where near the ball or hitting the completely wrong gap in run support. By far their weakest position on defense.
DB: For an ex-safety, Muschamp, for whatever reason, cannot teach good, fundamental defense. Constantly the DBs are out of position and they rarely if ever look for the ball. I foresee a lot of pass interference penalties if we don't just outright catch it on them. No way are they going to match up with our receivers.
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Conclusion: I don't see South Carolina winning unless we have a stereotypical voodoo Muschamp game where we inexplicably turn it over six times. I think we'll probably be very successful on both sides of the ball should our starters on defense come back. If they miss another game, though, I'm not worried.
Hill is no where near as well coached as Corral, he will make mistakes.
Gators by 14.
Spread -17.5 | +17.5
Money Line -1,000 | +650
Over/Under 57
Now that we finally have some tape to work with, I can start making some observations about the game. So let's just jump on in.
Miscellaneous Notes: Tennessee isn't an automatic victory anymore. Their team looks incredibly different than they have in the past. I think we still have their number, but Pruitt is definitely leading them in the right direction.
SCAR Offense: Almost nothing has changed since Muschamp left. Their offensive playcalling continues to be extremely predictable. There are some wrinkles of runs to the outside (tosses, sweeps and jet-sweeps) but the vast majority of it is as if you were just picking: "what would someone run on 1st down statistically speaking?" Whatever the statistical answer is, 90% of the time Muschamp will perform the play you're thinking of.
For example: If it's 3rd and 5 and most pass, he will pass. If it's 2nd and 3, he will run it to get it closer. He is extremely unimaginative and doesn't take risks except for a few times a game.
QB: Colin Hill (25/39, 290, 1/1). This is a very average Quarterback and honestly there is no way he can be better than Ryan Hilinski. I'm not Muschamp, so I can't tell him who to play but this guy just does not have it. He really only has one strength to his game and that's to throw the slant. He has some deep threat, but it's not enough. Arm strength is questionable, and the worst of all:
He has zero pocket presence. He was sacked several times from a very, very vanilla pass rush from Tennessee. His eyes don't stay downfield and he's far too quick to just give up on the play.
OL: Yikes. Weak. Muschamp offensive lines always seem to just not be up to the task at hand. Many times the pocket collapsed in a mere second and Hill was just panicking. Similarly, rushing the ball South Carolina struggled mightily. South Carolina rushed for 89 yards on 35 carries (2.5 yards a rush).
SP (Skill Positions): Their WRs are actually pretty decent, and if they had a QB who could get them the ball (like fricking Ryan Hilinski) they would probably win a lot more games. They can make us pay if they can get the slant to work, but it looks like we'll be able to disrupt them without even blitzing.
Ole Miss looked much better than they did on offense, much, much better.
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SCAR Defense: Generally, it is like Muschamp's normal defense. They are conventionally strong, as long as you play a normal offense and do what he expects he will do well. The moment you mix things up it falls apart. They are constantly out of position, have blown assignments all over the field and worst of all: can be very soft from time to time. Tackling is still a major issue.
DL: Like most Muschamp defenses, the DL is great until they gas and that happens a lot with his team for a lack of moving the ball. They were okay, and did get penetration but Guarantano also isn't a very good passer, nor does he have great football instincts. Running the ball Tennessee just did fine.
LB: Nothing special, they're rather mediocre. They often times go to the wrong part of the field and had the most blown coverage assignments. Like flat out being no where near the ball or hitting the completely wrong gap in run support. By far their weakest position on defense.
DB: For an ex-safety, Muschamp, for whatever reason, cannot teach good, fundamental defense. Constantly the DBs are out of position and they rarely if ever look for the ball. I foresee a lot of pass interference penalties if we don't just outright catch it on them. No way are they going to match up with our receivers.
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Conclusion: I don't see South Carolina winning unless we have a stereotypical voodoo Muschamp game where we inexplicably turn it over six times. I think we'll probably be very successful on both sides of the ball should our starters on defense come back. If they miss another game, though, I'm not worried.
Hill is no where near as well coached as Corral, he will make mistakes.
Gators by 14.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 12:41 am
2
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:56 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
I watched the game against UT and it's pretty simple...
Emphasize the run on defense. Especially to the right. That is their strength, and it isn't much of one, but they can run more effectively to the right. So don't let them do that.
Keep #52 off of trask. he was on the only pass rusher worth a damn. He usually comes from the left, so Stone Forsythe needs a good game.
The other thing, is look out for #13 Shi Smith. He is legitimately good, and just as fast as Moore at Ole Miss, and shredded UT up the middle.
If USCe wins, it's either because they are +4 in turnovers in some fluke game, or UF fails to stop any of the 3 things above.
This is a very average team.
Emphasize the run on defense. Especially to the right. That is their strength, and it isn't much of one, but they can run more effectively to the right. So don't let them do that.
Keep #52 off of trask. he was on the only pass rusher worth a damn. He usually comes from the left, so Stone Forsythe needs a good game.
The other thing, is look out for #13 Shi Smith. He is legitimately good, and just as fast as Moore at Ole Miss, and shredded UT up the middle.
If USCe wins, it's either because they are +4 in turnovers in some fluke game, or UF fails to stop any of the 3 things above.
This is a very average team.
Posted on 9/30/20 at 1:09 am to slayerxing
The good news is that Hill is no where near as good as Corral, so we'll be able to focus exclusively on the run for most of the game.
On defense, I think Muschamp is going to do one of two things:
Blitz often.
Play it super safe.
I don't think he has it in him to be balanced, if they blitz I know we'll kill 'em. If they don't, I know we'll get them anyway. To shut us down it's the same on defense as it is for offense: Surprise us.
The problem is, Trask is now calling audibles at the line without even checking with Mullen. That long touchdown to Pitts where the safety came up to blitz (and Pierce planted him) was Trask's call.
SEC is in trouble.
On defense, I think Muschamp is going to do one of two things:
Blitz often.
Play it super safe.
I don't think he has it in him to be balanced, if they blitz I know we'll kill 'em. If they don't, I know we'll get them anyway. To shut us down it's the same on defense as it is for offense: Surprise us.
The problem is, Trask is now calling audibles at the line without even checking with Mullen. That long touchdown to Pitts where the safety came up to blitz (and Pierce planted him) was Trask's call.
SEC is in trouble.
This post was edited on 9/30/20 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 9/30/20 at 8:10 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Yea I watched them and was not impressed all around. It is possible that maybe Tenn is very good and made them look average, but that did not look like a match up of two great teams.
I think it stays close for awhile. In the end we just out gun them. I'm going to go over the Vegas line for us by a few.
45-24 UF
I think it stays close for awhile. In the end we just out gun them. I'm going to go over the Vegas line for us by a few.
45-24 UF
Posted on 9/30/20 at 3:54 pm to Gatorbait2008
They are definitely going to score some points unless Florida can really up their defensive game. It’ll be close for a while just like ole miss. If Uf has turnovers it’ll get scary.
Posted on 9/30/20 at 8:08 pm to slayerxing
I'd be shocked if it is scary past half time. Their offensive line is pretty bad and that will create turnovers. Muschamp I do not think has true buy in like Mullen either. All the players know he is on a hot seat. That has to mess with them mentally. If I know my boss is getting fired soon, I would likely second guess their decisions because of that fact. Most hot seat coaches you see their season Tank for good reason. The line is big for the game, and I think Vegas knows as well that they would need everything to go wrong.
They beat Georgia last year, but Georgia plays a low scoring style which is more dangerous than having an offense than can put up major points like ours.
They beat Georgia last year, but Georgia plays a low scoring style which is more dangerous than having an offense than can put up major points like ours.
Posted on 9/30/20 at 8:09 pm to Gatorbait2008
What better cure for our Defense than a Muschamp offense :)
Posted on 10/1/20 at 6:32 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
If USC can run the ball and play keep away then it will be a game. Although I think UF scores quick a couple times and puts stress on the USC offense.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 7:51 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
Apart from missing so many starters last Saturday, there are several problems people overlook:
Ole Miss has a very, very good offense. It's balanced with run and pass, the Quarterback can do both of those things effectively, their playmakers are excellent.
They have a Quarterback who can pass and run, who makes the right decision more often than not and who is just a gamer who will try to get things done. Ole Miss is very good.
They also ran a hurry-up offense, but not like a cheap knock-off, a literal hurry up that we were completely unprepared for. That was definitely on Grantham.
South Carolina has none of these things. They are middling at running the ball, I'd say outright bad at passing it, their offense is not a hurry up and their Quarterback has very, very limited mobility.
I just don't think Muschamp is actually creative enough to move the ball up and down the field and stop us on defense.
Our offense is the real deal. It is better than it was last year, which is why Florida fans are pretty damn happy. Sure, it's one game, but we can tell that the offensive line is getting better and Trask has a much deeper understanding of the game.
Ole Miss has a very, very good offense. It's balanced with run and pass, the Quarterback can do both of those things effectively, their playmakers are excellent.
They have a Quarterback who can pass and run, who makes the right decision more often than not and who is just a gamer who will try to get things done. Ole Miss is very good.
They also ran a hurry-up offense, but not like a cheap knock-off, a literal hurry up that we were completely unprepared for. That was definitely on Grantham.
South Carolina has none of these things. They are middling at running the ball, I'd say outright bad at passing it, their offense is not a hurry up and their Quarterback has very, very limited mobility.
I just don't think Muschamp is actually creative enough to move the ball up and down the field and stop us on defense.
Our offense is the real deal. It is better than it was last year, which is why Florida fans are pretty damn happy. Sure, it's one game, but we can tell that the offensive line is getting better and Trask has a much deeper understanding of the game.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 7:55 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Their QB is experienced and played very well in the 2nd half.
Physically, yeah, hes nothing close to Corral and Plumlee. But he knows where to go with the ball, and hes very familiar with Bobo's scheme.
Physically, yeah, hes nothing close to Corral and Plumlee. But he knows where to go with the ball, and hes very familiar with Bobo's scheme.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:13 pm to boXerrumble
The problem is he really has one very good pass: The slant. The rest are kind of mediocre. He is also extremely immobile, he had 4 sacks and 4 hurries and they did it without blitzing most of the time. SCAR OL is just bad, and I don't think he's quick enough nor is Bobo creative enough to protect Hill the entire game.
This is the type of QB we eat for breakfast. All we do is crash the OL and make him uncomfortable and he will make mistakes.
That's why Corral had so many open running lanes, we literally push the tackles deep into the backfield and it's an easy run at one of the edges.
This is the type of QB we eat for breakfast. All we do is crash the OL and make him uncomfortable and he will make mistakes.
That's why Corral had so many open running lanes, we literally push the tackles deep into the backfield and it's an easy run at one of the edges.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 9:52 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
but we can tell that the offensive line is getting better
Trask was pressured the 3rd most in the SEC at 26% of the time on his passes. Does USCe have a better front 7 than Ole Miss? Bad things can happen when you keep allowing that kind of pressure.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 10:04 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Trask was pressured the 3rd most in the SEC at 26% of the time on his passes. Does USCe have a better front 7 than Ole Miss? Bad things can happen when you keep allowing that kind of pressure.
That is more than I thought. I remember him having a lot of time.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 10:19 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Trask was pressured the 3rd most in the SEC at 26% of the time on his passes. Does USCe have a better front 7 than Ole Miss? Bad things can happen when you keep allowing that kind of pressure.
I just rewatched every play on offense.
OL was a bit better from last year, but definitely missed some assignments early in the first Q. Did pick up in the 2nd Q a little, but had a rough 2 min drill.
The 2 min drill was actually all Trask. His pocket presence is SO MUCH better than from last year. He was sensing pressure a lot more quickly, and he kept moving his feet.
USCe does have a better OL than OM, but I think UF's OL will play better than they did last week to.
In fact, despite all of that, UF had the most rushing yards in the SEC last week, and Dameon Pierce had the highest success rate for SEC RBs last week too.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 10:32 am to boXerrumble
quote:
In fact, despite all of that, UF had the most rushing yards in the SEC last week
Damn, I didn't know that
quote:
Dameon Pierce had the highest success rate for SEC RBs last week too.
What does this measure?
Posted on 10/2/20 at 10:51 am to Porter Osborne Jr
I believe its the number of "successful" rushing plays over the total number of rushing plays for that particular player. Not sure how SEC Stat Cat determines what is considered "successful" but here are the numbers from last week:
quote:
SEC StatCat
@SEC_StatCat
·
19h
The SEC leaders in Rushing Success Rate entering Week2 - min 6 att
1. D. Pierce 77.8%
2. T. Chandler 69.2%
3. D. Fenwick 66.7%
4. TDP 63.6%
5. J. Ealy 62.5%
6. N. Harris 58.8%
7. L. Rountree 57.1%
8. C. Curry 55.6%
8. C. Rodriguez 55.6%
10. Zamir White 53.9%
SEC AVR = 43.6%
Posted on 10/2/20 at 11:12 am to boXerrumble
Interesting. Thanks.
Another stat that was awesome for UF was they had zero 3 and outs. That’s pretty damn impressive.
Another stat that was awesome for UF was they had zero 3 and outs. That’s pretty damn impressive.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 4:26 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Trask was pressured the 3rd most in the SEC at 26% of the time on his passes. Does USCe have a better front 7 than Ole Miss? Bad things can happen when you keep allowing that kind of pressure.
Trask was pretty successful when pressured. The difference this year is that he's actually starting, and so when he throws he actually knows where to go (since he has more reps with the first string and an entire off-season where he was the starting QB).
They can do what they want, we'll just change the release and scheme around it, we have the QB to do it.
Ole Miss game condesned.
A lot of rival fans are watching older Trask and think it's indicative of his current play. Dude is way more comfortable passing under pressure.
This post was edited on 10/2/20 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 10/2/20 at 7:25 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
I hear you. But that pressure rate is still alarming, especially since it was Ole Miss and not one of the better front 7's in the SEC.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 8:41 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
He was hurried 6 times on 42 passes, that's 14% or once every 7 drop backs. That's...neither alarming nor worrisome for the first game of the season. He was only sacked once.
For instance, ESPN also tallied 4 hurries and 3 sacks for Georgia against Arkansas, who may very well be the worst team in the SEC and whose defense was, in fact, the worst of last season.
Source for Georgia game with hurries and sacks.
Florida source with hurries and sacks.
I think we'll be just fine.
For instance, ESPN also tallied 4 hurries and 3 sacks for Georgia against Arkansas, who may very well be the worst team in the SEC and whose defense was, in fact, the worst of last season.
Source for Georgia game with hurries and sacks.
Florida source with hurries and sacks.
I think we'll be just fine.
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