Game 6: 3-2 LSU @ #18 4-1 Florida - Noon - ESPN

Ok here's the situation:

Mac just spoke - Sherit and Ivie are definitely out on the DL. Brantley is hurt but may play, and Cox is the only one that is more certain to play. So LSU will be facing UF's 2nd and 3rd string DL on Saturday.

You are probably looking at a starting line up of Cox, Bryan, Clark, and Zuniga, with Davis, CeCe, Polite, Clayton, and now even Ancrum getting in on the action.

Needless to say, this will probably be the smallest SEC DL that LSU faces this year.

Anzalone is also a little dinged up in his hand but will play and Daniel Mcmillan is back, FWIW.

On offense, Del Rio is still a mystery, Tyler Jordan is back on the OL (thank god) and their are rumblings that Ivey will move to tackle, Jordan to LG, and Sharpe won't play - but obviously we don't know that for sure right now.

The rest of the offense seems pretty healthy, although Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway aren't 100% - but who is in mid season.

LSU is looking mostly healthy, and Fournette is expected to play, but even if he doesn't LSU has a number of good backs.

LSU has only given up 3 yards per carry this year against some pretty good running teams. They have only given up 2 rushing TD all year. Given how UF's OL has played, it's pretty fair to expect that UF is not going to run the ball well enough to beat LSU. Their pass defense has been good, but not great. They've given up 3 TD to 4 INT, and about 56% completions. Most of it has been short stuff. The big issue for Florida though, is that their DL has been great in pass rush. Arden Key, Davon Godchaux, and Lewis Neal have combined for 12.5 sacks and 14 TFL already. So when UF does try to win the game by passing, they will be facing a relentless pass rush.

Finally, they have really good 3rd down conversion defense, and only allowed 25% conversions against Power 5 teams this year.

So let's just be real - Florida is realistically not going to be able to run the ball consistently. They will have to beat LSU passing, which is going to be a challenge with this OL vs. the LSU DL. I would also not be surprised, given LSU's play on 3rd down, if UF reasonably has 3 or 4 three-and-outs on Saturday. That might even be conservative.

LSU's offense, on the other hand, has averaged over 6 yards per carry on the ground this year against some good defenses. Their weakness has been their passing game and an ability to finish drives, but the fact is, they WILL run the ball, and with UF's offense certainly in for a struggle, the defense is going to be tired, especially with a noon kick off in the Florida heat.

IMO - Florida's only chance to win is to play bend, but don't break, defense, holding LSU to multiple FGs. Hopefully this will frustrate LSU and they will take some chances in the air that UF can turn into interceptions. It'll be tough though, because despite the fact that LSU is mediocre at QB, they have fantastic WR, and UF was torched by the only other decent unit they have faced this year.

UF does have advantages in the kicking game, where townsend is about 10 yards better on average per kick, and where Eddy has more range. UF also has the advantage on kick off. So far, LSU is far more dangerous in the PR game, so UF has to be on their game there. UF ABSOLUTELY must win the special teams and field position battle if they want to have any chance of winning. This is a fricking MUST HAVE this week.

At the end of the day, LSU is just a better team right now, with less key injuries. I would be surprised if they run for less than 250 yards on Saturday, as they wear Florida down and pull away late.

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