How often can a linear model be used in picking a football game outcome?

Over the last 26 games Georgia has covered 20 times. Tennessee is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Home games. Does this mean anything? Not it me, I don’t bet.

I try to avoid the lines that seem too good to be true. They usually are, a la Michigan State last week.

Life is very subjective. That would include those humanoids who reside in Las Vegas.

If it wasn't, you wouldn't bet.

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I try to avoid the lines that seem too good to be true

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It’s truly amazing how often, on average, Vegas gets it right.

I’ve won a lot of money in paid fantasy pick ‘em leagues over the years because it essentially evens out the risks and avoids big losses.

And I have tried a multitude of systems and models out there (even making my own) for single weekends. They can help, but IMO none of them are worth it unless you’re in it for the long-haul, like over the course of a full season.

It sounds dumb, but you have to win a good bit more than you lose, and for me I can only seem to consistently do that by risking a little on a lot of games–not a lot on one game.

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I’ve won a lot of money in paid fantasy pick ‘em leagues over the years because it essentially evens out the risks and avoids big losses.

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Most of the time the winners of these will be around 55%-57% on the season.

To win money betting on games you have to be above 53%. And that’s just above breaking even. If you bet on 100 games at $100 each, you would only make around $70 at 53%. While you wagered $10,000 on the season.

Sports Gambling should be done for entertainment, and when you make the bet, be prepared to lose. And if you lose, please don’t double down! Don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose!