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#1 Alabama (-23.5) vs #22 Auburn (O/U 60.5) - Gaming Model (updated 11-23)
Posted on 11/16/20 at 9:53 am
Posted on 11/16/20 at 9:53 am
#1 Alabama (-23.5) vs #22 Auburn (O/U 60.5)
Vegas Score Prediction: 42-18
Model Predictions
Alabama - 42
Auburn - 19
Alabama
- 529 total yards on 69 plays (7.35 YPP)
- 319 pass yards on 32 passes (9.98 YPA)
- 210 rush yards on 40 rushes (5.25 YPA)
Auburn
- 356 total yards on 69 plays (5.16 YPP)
- 229 pass yards on 37 passes (6.19 YPA)
- 127 rush yards on 32 rushes (3.96 YPA)
Also - I only used our performances vs opponent averages on offense for Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Kentucky - games since Waddle has been out. So, Alabama's offensive output numbers only include games without Waddle compared to opponent averages, which should make everyone feel pretty good. Not a lot of drop off in terms of how we performed vs opponents averages.
Vegas Score Prediction: 42-18
Model Predictions
Alabama - 42
Auburn - 19
Alabama
- 529 total yards on 69 plays (7.35 YPP)
- 319 pass yards on 32 passes (9.98 YPA)
- 210 rush yards on 40 rushes (5.25 YPA)
Auburn
- 356 total yards on 69 plays (5.16 YPP)
- 229 pass yards on 37 passes (6.19 YPA)
- 127 rush yards on 32 rushes (3.96 YPA)
Also - I only used our performances vs opponent averages on offense for Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Kentucky - games since Waddle has been out. So, Alabama's offensive output numbers only include games without Waddle compared to opponent averages, which should make everyone feel pretty good. Not a lot of drop off in terms of how we performed vs opponents averages.
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 8:32 am
6
Posted on 11/16/20 at 9:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
Defense needs to hold them under 35 and we win
Posted on 11/16/20 at 10:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Florida - 33
quote:
Florida
- 486 total yards on 71 plays (6.84 YPP)
- 361 pass yards on 40 passes (9.03 YPA)
- 124 rush yards on 31 rushes (4.01 YPA)
Posted on 11/16/20 at 10:49 am to Glorious
If we hold them to the 30-35 range that's honestly a win. Those dudes are ridiculously deep at the skill position s
Posted on 11/17/20 at 12:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Thank you! Interesting info!!
Posted on 11/17/20 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
At least we're predictable on offense
Posted on 11/22/20 at 10:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks, SOG. You gonna update these to include last weekend's data?This post was edited on 11/22/20 at 10:46 pm
Posted on 11/22/20 at 10:19 pm to TidalSurge1
Will Model be updated to include this past weekend or it probably won't change?
Posted on 11/23/20 at 7:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
I'll just update this for the new Auburn model shortly as not to confuse
Posted on 11/23/20 at 8:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
Updated - basically exactly what the current line and O/U in Vegas would pop out.
Auburn has 2 variations of offense - the games they are in control, feel good about running the ball, and the games where they feel like they have to throw to stick around (Georgia, South Carolina). I think it's reasonable to assume this will be one of the latter games and they'll throw 55-60% of the time.
Auburn has 2 variations of offense - the games they are in control, feel good about running the ball, and the games where they feel like they have to throw to stick around (Georgia, South Carolina). I think it's reasonable to assume this will be one of the latter games and they'll throw 55-60% of the time.
This post was edited on 11/23/20 at 8:24 am
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